WIRED AND WIRELESS NETWORKS: TWO WORLDS COMING TOGETHER

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION

• Structure of the Report 16
• Summary & Conclusions 17

SECTION 2: DEFINING CONVERGENCE

• Service Convergence -- How Does the End-User Experience It? 19
• Service Provider Convergence -- Who Delivers It? 19
• Network Convergence -- How Is It Delivered? 20
• Vendor Convergence -- Who Enables Its Delivery? 20
• Summary & Conclusions 21

SECTION 3: MARKET DYNAMICS

• Technology 23
• Regulation 23
• Market Demand 23
• Operator Strategies 24
• Summary & Conclusions 24

SECTION 4: TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS: EVOLUTION OR REVOLUTION?

Conventional Wisdom -- The Evolution of Cellular Technologies 25

• The evolution of GSM radio access networks 27
  • GPRS 27
  • EDGE 27
  • W-CDMA FDD 28
  • HSDPA 29
  • W-CDMA TDD 30
• The evolution of CDMA radio access networks 30
  • CDMA2000 1x 31
  • CDMA2000 1X EV-DO 31
  • CDMA2000 1x EV-DV 32
• The trend toward all-IP architecture in cellular networks 33
  • IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) 33

Revolution -- Alternative Broadband Wireless Access Technologies 35

• Local area broadband wireless access systems 35
  • Wi-Fi (802.11b, 802.11a and 802.11g) 36
  • Bluetooth and UltraWideBand (UWB) 39
• Wide area broadband wireless access systems 41
  • Wi-Max (802.16) 42
  • MBWA (802.20) (mobile broadband wireless access) 45
  • Proprietary BWA Technologies 46
  • ArrayComm 47
  • Flarion Technologies 48
  • IPWireless 48
  • Navini Networks 50
  • The Future for Alternative BWA Systems 51
• Broadcast technologies 52

Putting Wireless in Context 54

• DSL Growth 54

VoIP and the Packetization of Networks 55

• VoIP -- the unstoppable force for change 56
  • Vonage 57
  • Skype 57
  • VoIP quality 58

Summary & Conclusions 60

SECTION 5: REGULATION AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY

• Mandating Technology for Licensed Spectrum 64
• "Regulation" or "Policing" of Unlicensed Spectrum 66
• Classification of Services 68
• Competition Law 70
• Summary & Conclusions 72

SECTION 6: MARKET DEMAND

• Societal and business trends 74
• Mobile or Convergent Services? 77
  • Voice services -- cash cow or sacred cow? 79
  • Data services -- bit pipe or smart pipe? 81
    • Messaging (email, IM, text, picture) 82
    • Content services (ringtones, music, games and video) 82
    • content downloads 83
    • streamed content 84
    • broadcast TV 85
    • Internet browsing/LAN access 86
    • pricing of Internet access services -- flat rate 87
    • Mobile video telephony 88
• Mobile or Convergent Devices? 89
  • Mobile phone evolution 90
    • Multi-mode handsets 91
    • PCMCIA/compact flash modems 92
    • Distributed vs integrated devices 92
    • Wired devices, e.g. TV, PC at home/office 94
• Summary & Conclusions 94

SECTION 7: STRATEGIC CHOICES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR INDUSTRY STRUCTURE

• Key Drivers and Enablers of Convergence 97
• The "Battle of the Building" 101
• The "Battle of the Bundle" 102
• Strategic Choices and Implications 104
  • Cellular operators 104
  • Wired telecoms operators 105
  • Cable operators and broadband ISPs 106
  • Network and device vendors 107
  • Others 109
• Summary & Conclusions 109

SECTION 8: SCENARIOS

• Status Quo: Wired and Mobile Operators Stick to Their Knitting 114
  • Technology developments 114
  • Regulation and industrial policy 115
  • Market demand 116
  • Operator strategies and industry structure 117
• Mobile Broadband Wins: Mobile Operators Gain Traffic and Revenues at the Expense of Wired Operators 118
  • Technology developments 118
  • Regulation and industrial policy 120
  • Market demand 120
  • Operator strategies and industry structure 121
• Portable Broadband Wins: Wired Operators Gain Traffic and Revenues at the Expense of Mobile Operators 122
  • Technology developments 122
  • Regulation and industrial policy 124
  • Market demand 124
  • Operator strategies and industry structure 126
• Summary & Conclusions 127

SECTION 9: CONCLUSION 130

GLOSSARY 131