Worldwide TFT-LCD Demand and Supply 2004-2007 Forecast

IDC Opinion

In This Study

Methodology

Executive Summary

Situation Overview

TFT-LCD Monitor Demand Creates a Strong Market

Focusing on Third Growth Driver

Future Outlook

Forecast and Assumptions

Demand Forecast

LCD-TV Demand Will Take 19% Unit Share in 2007

Figure: Worldwide TFT-LCD Demand by Application, 2003–2007

Trends for Larger Displays but Constraints in Notebooks

17in. Will Be Top Display Size During 2004

43% of LCD-TVs Will Be Over 30in. in 2007

14.1 and 15in. Sizes Will Be Mainstream for Notebook

Supply from New Lines

30 Fifth-Generation and Higher Lines Will Start Operation During Forecast Period

Bigger and Bigger LCD-TV Displays

Table: Worldwide TFT-LCD Demand Share by Application and Size, 2003-2007 (%)

Figure: Investment for Fifth-Generation and Higher Lines, 2003– 2007

Capex Will Peak in 2004

Table: Panel Outputs by Generation and Input Glass Size

Figure: Worldwide LCD Capex by Country, 2003–2007

Capital Expenditures Increasing at Alarming Rate

Table: Capital Expenditure Model by Fab Generation ($M)

Profitable Notebook Market, but Risky Monitor Market

Table: Worldwide TFT-LCD ASP, Production Cost, and Margin by Application and Size, 2003-2007

Budget Ratio Will Shrink Steeply for Larger Monitors

Table: Worldwide TFT-LCD Panel Budget Ratio Change by Application and Size, 2003-2007

Monitor Market Will Suffer from Oversupply in 2005 and Beyond

Table: Worldwide TFT-LCD Monitor Demand, ASP, and Revenue, 2003-2007

LCD-TV Will Play a Great Role in the TFT-LCD Industry

Table: Worldwide LCD-TV Demand, 32in. ASP, and Revenue, 2003-2007

Sluggish Notebook Panel Market

Table: Worldwide Notebook TFT-LCD Demand, ASP, and Revenue, 2003-2007

Conclusions

$42 Billion Market in 2007

Table: Worldwide TFT-LCD Revenue by Application, 2003-2007 ($M)

Taiwanese Vendors Will Surpass Korean Vendors

Taiwan Will Become a Great Source of LCD Monitors

Japanese Vendors Hold Lion's Share of LCD-TV Until 2006

Table: Worldwide TFT-LCD Unit Share by Application and Country, 2003-2007 (%)

Table: Worldwide TFT-LCD Revenue by Country, 2003-2007 ($M)

Table: Worldwide TFT-LCD Revenue Share by Application and Country, 2003-2007 (%)

Notebook Reflects Same Trends as Monitor but Rely on More Outdated Fabs in Japan and Korea

Forecast Assumptions

Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for the Worldwide TFT-LCD Market, 2004-2007

Essential Guidance

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Related Research

Definitions

Thin Film Transistor–Liquid Crystal Display (TFT-LCD)

Amorphous TFT-LCD

Low-Temperature Polysilicon (LTPS)

Continuous Grain Silicon (CGS)

Average Selling Price (ASP)

Resolution

Aspect Ratio

Other Ratios

Digital Visual Interface (DVI)

Sufficiency Ratio

OEM Market

Branded Market

Synopsis