Abstract
With performance curves that have historically defied economic downturns, the
videogame console sector of the games industry is somewhat more resistant to
recession than are other consumer entertainment markets. Revenue and shipment
growth in the sector will continue upward, approaching the diverse relative
peaks of the three competitive consoles, and will begin to plateau postpeak.
This console cycle, however, encompasses unprecedented emerging dynamics that
require fresh market perspective, specifically the growing mainstream
acceptance of gaming as a valuable leisure activity, and significant growth of
usage and revenue from ancillary content and services enabled by the connected
console. Keeping these industryspecific dynamics in mind and factoring in the
unprecedented global economic recession affecting all consumer-focused
businesses, IDC finds:
- Worldwide revenue representing retail value of shipments of videogame
consoles, dedicated handheld gaming devices, and packaged software for
consoles and handhelds reached a record high of $71.7 billion in 2008, up 15%
from 2007' s record high of $62.4 billion. IDC anticipates continued growth of
14.1% in 2009 for another record of $81.9 billion.
- The retail value of global console and handheld hardware shipments peaked
in 2008 at $25 billion, and IDC expects a decrease of 11.6% to $22.2 billion
in 2009. The decrease in hardware revenue is partially due to declining
average selling prices, which are necessary for vendors to compete for market
share by facilitating multiple console ownership for the partially saturated
gaming enthusiast market, and by increasing the installed base of the
expanding mainstream market.
- With the installed base of each console and handheld increasing, IDC
projects a sustained trend of double-digit year-over-year growth in retail
value of software shipments during the forecast period. Software shipment
value reached $46.6 billion in 2008, and IDC expects over 28% growth to result
in shipments worth $59.7 billion in 2009.
- Accounting for vendors to maintain conservative production and to stretch
hardware cycles and retail outlets to reduce orders due to expected lower
consumer retail spend in the short- to midterm, IDC expects retail value of
videogame hardware and software to reach $124 billion by 2013.
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