Report: 2008 LED Projection Systems Report TOC

1 Table of Contents 2

2 Executive Summary 12

2.1. Introduction to LEDs in Projection 12
2.2. Other Applications of HB-LEDs 12
- 2.2.1. Lasers in the Projection Market 13
2.3. Use of LEDs as the Illumination Source in Projection Displays 14
- 2.3.1. LED Colorimetry 14
- 2.3.2. Etendue, LEDs and Projection Systems 14
- 2.3.3. Advantages of LEDs in Projection Systems 15
- 2.3.4. Problems with LEDs in Projection Systems 16
- 2.3.5. Required developments in LEDs for projection displays 17
- 2.3.6. Current Research Directions 17
2.4. Forecasts for HB-LEDs Suitable for Projection Applications 18
2.5. New in the Insight Media 2008 LED Projection report 22

3 Projection Applications of LEDs 24

3.1. Pico Projectors 27
3.2. Pocket and Ultra-portable Projectors 29
3.3. Rear Projection TV 31
3.4. Head Up Displays 32
3.5. Consumer Home Theater 33
3.6. Business Projectors 33
3.7. Vis/Sim Projectors 34
3.8. Large Venue and Digital Cinema Projectors 35

4 LED Technology and its Application to Projection Systems 36

4.1. Key Issues in Projection System Optics 36
4.2. Physics of LEDs 40
4.3. Electro-Optical Properties of LEDs 45
- 4.3.1. Electro-optic property variation with junction temperature 45
- 4.3.2. Variation of electro-optical properties with drive current 52
4.4. LED Lifetime 55
- 4.4.1. Lifetime requirements for various applications 59
4.5. White LEDs 61
4.6. Photonic Lattice and Other Light Extraction Technology 64
4.7. Optics of LED Light Collection Systems 68
4.8. LED Colorimetry and Color Binning 81
- 4.8.1. Color in Displays 81
- 4.8.2. Wavelength Selection for Projection Displays 89
- 4.8.3. LED Color Gamuts with More than Three LED Colors 94
- 4.8.4. LED-Based 3D Displays with Infitec Technology 97
- 4.8.5. Color Metamerism 101
- 4.8.6. Effect on White Point of the Variation in LED Properties 104
- 4.8.7. Binning of LEDs 105
4.9. Thermal Packages for High-Power LEDs 108
- 4.9.1. Standard Semiconductor Packages 111
- 4.9.2. Lumileds Barracuda 111
- 4.9.3. NeoPac Lighting' s NeoBulb 112
- 4.9.4. Luminus Devices PhlatLight 113
- 4.9.5. Liquid Cooling of LEDs 113
- 4.9.6. Nuventix Inc. SynJet Technology 115
- 4.9.7. IRC' s Anotherm 117
- 4.9.8. sp3 Diamond Technologies DiaTherm Heat Spreaders 117
- 4.9.9. Graphite Heat Spreaders 119
4.10. Drive Circuits for High-Powered LEDs 120
4.11. Architectures of LED-Based Projectors 126
- 4.11.1. Single Panel Design with Color Filter Array and White LEDs 127
- 4.11.2. Three Panel LCD Architecture 128
- 4.11.3. Single Panel DLP architecture 129
- 4.11.4. Single panel LCoS architecture 130
- 4.11.5. SGB Labs Inc.' s Switchable Bragg Grating Color Combiner 131
- 4.11.6. LED Light Recycling and Polarization Conversion 132
4.12. Current LED Research Directions 134

5 LED Lumen Output Forecast for Projection Systems 136

5.1. Illumination Modules for Projection Displays 137
5.2. Collection Efficiency 139
5.3. LED Luminance Increases 142
5.4. LED Efficiency Increases 145
5.5. Power Density Improvements 146
5.6. Total LED Improvement Forecast 148
- 5.6.1. Total output for various LED die sizes 148
- 5.6.2. Lumens per square mm of die for various etendue ratios 153
- 5.6.3. Gain from non-Lambertian distribution from a Luminus die 155

6 LED Illumination System Cost Forecast for Projection Systems 157

6.1. LED Illumination Module Cost Estimate 158
- 6.1.1. Structure and Assumptions of the LED Cost Model 159
- 6.1.2. Estimated Cost of an Illumination Module 161
6.2. Forecast for the Dollars/Lumen parameter 165
6.3. Price and Availability 166
- 6.3.1. Affect of Binning on Price and Availability 167
- 6.3.2. Price vs. Volume considerations 167
6.4. Case Study using Throughput and Cost Forecasts 169
- 6.4.1. Collected Lumens for a 0.55" DLP 170
- 6.4.2. Cost vs. Collected Lumens 171
6.5. Discussion of Forecasts 176

7 LED Supplier Competitive Analysis 177

7.1. Introduction 177
7.2. Scope 177
7.3. Findings 178
7.4. Product and Roadmap Comparisons 178
- 7.4.1. Cree Technologies, Inc. 179
- 7.4.2. Philips Lumileds 179
- 7.4.3. Luminus Devices 181
- 7.4.4. Nichia Corporation 185
- 7.4.5. OSRAM Opto Semiconductors GmbH 186
- 7.4.6. Toyoda Gosei Co., Ltd. 190
- 7.4.7. Product Roadmap Conclusions 190
7.5. Technology Assessment Comparisons 191
- 7.5.1. Cree Technologies, Inc 191
- 7.5.2. Philips Lumileds 192
- 7.5.3. Luminus Devices 192
- 7.5.4. Nichia Corporation 193
- 7.5.5. OSRAM Opto Semiconductors GmbH 193
- 7.5.6. Toyoda Gosei Co., Ltd. 194
- 7.5.7. Technology Assessment 194
7.6. Manufacturing Comparisons 197
- 7.6.1. Cree Technologies, Inc. 197
- 7.6.2. Philips Lumileds 197
- 7.6.3. Luminus Devices 198
- 7.6.4. Nichia Corporation 198
- 7.6.5. OSRAM Opto Semiconductors GmbH 198
- 7.6.6. Toyoda Gosei Co., Ltd. 199
- 7.6.7. Manufacturing Assessment 199
7.7. Price Analysis Comparisons 200
- 7.7.1. Cree Technologies, Inc. 200
- 7.7.2. Philips Lumileds 200
- 7.7.3. OSRAM Opto Semiconductors, GmbH 201
- 7.7.4. Luminus Devices 201
- 7.7.5. Nichia Corporation 201
- 7.7.6. Toyoda Gosei Co., Ltd. 201
- 7.7.7. Pricing analysis 202
7.8. Other Factors 203
- 7.8.1. Cree Technologies, Inc. 203
- 7.8.2. Philips Lumileds 203
- 7.8.3. Luminus Devices 203
- 7.8.4. Nichia Corporation 203
- 7.8.5. OSRAM Opto Semiconductors, GmbH 204
- 7.8.6. Toyoda Gosei Co., Ltd. 204
7.9. Competitive Analysis Summary 204

8 Conclusions 206

8.1. Application of LEDs to Projection Displays 206
8.2. SWOT: LEDs vs. Lasers vs. Lamps 207

9 Appendix 1 - LED Manufacturer Profiles and Roadmaps 208

9.1. Cree Technologies, Inc. 208
- 9.1.1. Company Background 208
- 9.1.2. Technology & Products 208
- 9.1.3. Strengths 209
- 9.1.4. Weaknesses 210
- 9.1.5. Opportunities 210
- 9.1.6. Threats 210
9.2. Luminus Devices 211
- 9.2.1. Company Background 211
- 9.2.2. Technology & Products 211
- 9.2.3. Strengths 213
- 9.2.4. Weaknesses 213
- 9.2.5. Opportunities 213
- 9.2.6. Threats 213
9.3. Nichia 214
- 9.3.1. Company Background 214
- 9.3.2. Technology and Products 214
- 9.3.3. Strengths 214
- 9.3.4. Weaknesses 215
- 9.3.5. Opportunities 216
- 9.3.6. Threats 216
9.4. OSRAM Opto Semiconductor 217
- 9.4.1. Company Background 217
- 9.4.2. Technology & Products 218
- 9.4.3. Strengths 218
- 9.4.4. Weaknesses 219
- 9.4.5. Opportunities 219
- 9.4.6. Threats 220
9.5. Philips Lumileds Lighting 221
- 9.5.1. Company Background 221
- 9.5.2. Technology & Products 221
- 9.5.3. Strengths 222
- 9.5.4. Weaknesses 222
- 9.5.5. Opportunities 222
- 9.5.6. Threats 223
9.6. Toyoda Gosei 224
- 9.6.1. Company Background 224
- 9.6.2. Technology & Products 225
- 9.6.3. Strengths 225
- 9.6.4. Weaknesses 226
- 9.6.5. Opportunities 226
- 9.6.6. Threats 226

10 Appendix 2 - List of LED Companies 227

Table of Figures

Figure 1: Applications of High-Brightness LEDs 13
Figure 2: Green Lumen Forecast 19
Figure 3: Total Cost of a Green LED Collection Module (Probable) 20
Figure 4: Green LED Price/Performance with Increasing Die Size 21
Figure 5: Dollar/Lumen for Module with Four 1mm2 Die 22
Figure 6: Companion Pico Projector from Iljin 28
Figure 7: DLP-Based Pocket/Ultra-portable Projectors 30
Figure 8: Rockwell Collins Head Up Display 32
Figure 9: Schematic Diagram of Parabolic and Elliptical Reflectors 37
Figure 10: Schematic Diagram of a Wavien Collector with a Tapered Light Pipe 38
Figure 11: Basic Structure of a LED 41
Figure 12: History of LED Materials 42
Figure 13: LED Materials and Lattice Constants 43
Figure 14: Typical Red, Green and Blue LED Emission Spectra 43
Figure 15: LED Spectrum Variation 44
Figure 16: Multiple Quantum Well Structure 44
Figure 17: Spectral Variation with Temperature of a Red LED using AlGaInP 46
Figure 18: Spectral-Variations with Temperature of a Green LED Based on GaN 47
Figure 19: Spectral-Variation with Temperature Change of a Blue LED Based on GaN 47
Figure 20: Lumens-Variation with Temperature of a Red LED 48
Figure 21: Lumens-Variation with Temperature of a Green LED 48
Figure 22: Lumens-Variation with Temperature Change of a Blue LED 49
Figure 23: Dominant-Wavelength Change with Temperature of a Red LED 50
Figure 24: Dominant-Wavelength Stability with Temperature Change of a Green LED 50
Figure 25: Dominant-Wavelength Change with Temperature of a Blue LED 51
Figure 26: LED Output vs. Temperature 52
Figure 27:Temperature Dependence of Lumileds High-Power LEDs 52
Figure 28: LED Output vs. Current for Nichia LEDs 53
Figure 29: Typical LED Current vs Forward Voltage 54
Figure 30: LED Output vs. Voltage 55
Figure 31: LED Temperature Measurement 56
Figure 32: LED Lifetime vs. Temperature 56
Figure 33: Lifetime of Red, Green, Blue and White LEDs 57
Figure 34: Example of LED Lifetime Data 58
Figure 35: White LED Designs 62
Figure 36: White LED Spectra with Yellow Phosphor 62
Figure 37: White LED Spectra with Red, Green and Blue Phosphors 64
Figure 38: Photonic Lattice from Luminus Devices 65
Figure 39: High-current Electrodes from Luminus Devices 65
Figure 40: Collimation of LED Output by Luminus Devices Photonic Lattice 66
Figure 41: Gain in 2008 from Photonic Lattice compared to Lambertian output 67
Figure 42: Compound Parabolic Collector (CPC) 69
Figure 43: LED Emission Pattern Without and With a CPC 69
Figure 44: LED CPC and CPC Array 71
Figure 45: Tapered Light Pipes on OSRAM LEDs 72
Figure 46: LED Batwing Collector 73
Figure 47: Lumileds Collector 73
Figure 48: Lumileds "Batwing" Distribution 74
Figure 49: Toyoda-Gosei Multicolor LED Distribution 74
Figure 50: Effect of Angular Distribution Differences 76
Figure 51: Wavien Array Collector Proposal 76
Figure 52: Wavelength Multiplexing for Brightness Increase 78
Figure 53: X-Cube Dichroic Design and Realization 80
Figure 54: Bookham ZorroLight LED Multiplexer 81
Figure 55: CIE 1931 Colorimetry 83
Figure 56: Video Color Gamuts 85
Figure 57: Gamut of Real Surface Colors 88
Figure 58: LED Color Gamut 92
Figure 59: Laser Color Gamuts 94
Figure 60: Color Gamut with 5 LEDs 96
Figure 61: Spectra of a 5-Color LED Projector 96
Figure 62: Infitec Color Gamut with 6 LEDs 99
Figure 63: Spectra of LED Infitec System 100
Figure 64: Color Gamut of Infitec Projector in 2D Mode 101
Figure 65: Color Metamerism 103
Figure 66: Color Gamut Variation with LED Property Changes 105
Figure 67: Standard Bins Used by Optek for Green LEDs 106
Figure 68: Standard Bins Used by Cree for White LEDs 107
Figure 69: Standard Bins Used by Lumileds for Luxeon K2 White LEDs 108
Figure 70: LED in a TO-66 Package 111
Figure 71: Lumileds "Barracuda" LED Package 112
Figure 72: LED Package from NeoPac Lighting 112
Figure 73: LED Packages from Luminus Devices 113
Figure 74: Liquid Cooling System from Northrop-Grumman 114
Figure 75: LED Liquid Cooling from Cooligy 114
Figure 76: Starpower"! LED Package from Lightsphere 115
Figure 77: Nuventix SynJet Pulse Cycle 116
Figure 78: Anotherm Aluminum Substrates for Removing Heat from LEDs 117
Figure 79: Diamond Heat Spreader Design 118
Figure 80: Diamond Heat Spreader in the Optical Path 119
Figure 81: Thermal Performance of Graphite 120
Figure 82: LED Drive Circuit using the National Semiconductor LM3433 122
Figure 83: Efficiency of the National Semiconductor LM3433 122
Figure 84: LED Drive Circuit using the Maxim MAX16818 123
Figure 85: OSRAM RAPCUR Drive Boards 124
Figure 86: Rise and Fall Time for the OSRAM F9030A 126
Figure 87: Simple LED Projector 128
Figure 88: Three Panel LCD Projector with LED Illumination 129
Figure 89: Illumination Path from Lumileds Demonstration DLP Projector 130
Figure 90: LCoS Projector with LED Illumination 131
Figure 91: LED Illumination Path with Switchable Bragg Gratings 132
Figure 92: LED Recycling by Goldeneye 133
Figure 93: 3LCD Projector with LED Illumination and Polarization Conversion 134
Figure 94: Water Cooled LED Package from PerkinElmer 136
Figure 95: LED Efficiency vs. Wavelength 139
Figure 96: LED Collection Efficiency 141
Figure 97: Haitz' s Law 143
Figure 98: Extraction efficiencies for encapsulated LEDs 144
Figure 99: Green LED Efficiency Increase 146
Figure 100: Power Density Increase 147
Figure 101: Green Lumen Forecast 148
Figure 102: Green Lumen vs. Etendue and Year 1 sq.mm LED Die 149
Figure 103: Green Lumens vs. Etendue and Year 2 sq.mm LED Die 150
Figure 104: Green Lumens vs. Etendue and Year 4 sq.mm LED Die 151
Figure 105: Green Lumens vs. Etendue and Year 8 sq.mm LED Die 152
Figure 106: Lumens vs. Etendue Ratio and Year (Optimistic) 153
Figure 107: Lumens vs. Etendue Ratio and Year (Probable) 154
Figure 108: Lumens vs. Etendue Ratio and Year (Conservative) 155
Figure 109: Gain from a Luminus Devices non-Lambertian die 156
Figure 110: Total Cost of a LED Collection Module (Probable) 162
Figure 111: Total Cost of a LED Collection Module (Optimistic) 163
Figure 112: Total Cost of a LED Collection Module (Red) 164
Figure 113: Dollar/Lumen for Module with Four 1mm2 Die 165
Figure 114: Dollar/Lumen for System with Three Illumination Modules 166
Figure 115: Cost/Volume relationship 168
Figure 116: Red LED Collection Module Pricing (Lambertian Emitter) 172
Figure 117: Green LED Collection Module Pricing (Lambertian Emitter) 173
Figure 118: Blue LED Collection Module Pricing (Lambertian Emitter) 173
Figure 119: Red LED Collection Module Pricing (Non-Lambertian Emitter) 174
Figure 120: Green LED Collection Module Pricing (Non-Lambertian Emitter) 174
Figure 121: Blue LED Collection Module Pricing (Non-Lambertian Emitter) 175
Figure 122: Luxeon K2 LED with TFFC 180
Figure 123: PhlatLight PT 54 Modules 182
Figure 124: PhlatLight PT120 Modules 182
Figure 125: Luminus PhlatLight Detail 183
Figure 126: PhlatLight in Rear-Projection TV - Schematic 183
Figure 127: PhlatLight in Samsung HL61A750 Rear Projection TV 184
Figure 128: Home Theater Projector with PhlatLight PT120 Illumination 184
Figure 129: The HS-101 Ultra-Mobile Projector 185
Figure 130: Nichia Brightness Improvement Plan 186
Figure 131: OSRAM OSTAR Projection LED Packages 187
Figure 132: OSRAM OSTAR in Projection Systems 188
Figure 133: OSRAM Luminous Efficiency Plan 189
Figure 134: Toyoda-Gosei Luminous Efficiency Improvement Plan 190
Figure 135: Luminous Efficiency Plans of 5 Key LED Suppliers 191
Figure 136: Maximum White Lumen Output from Three 1 mm Die 197
Figure 137: Cost Per Lumen Forecast 202
Figure 138: Photonic Lattice 212

Table of Tables

Table 1: LED Projector Market Segments 25
Table 2: Lifetime and Color Shift Requirements Summary by Application 60
Table 3: Color Coordinates for Key Video Formats 85
Table 4: Some Commercially Available LED Colors 89
Table 5: LED Wavelengths for DCI and HDTV Color Gamuts 93
Table 6: LED Powers with 5 Colors 97
Table 7: Wavelengths and Powers for Infitec LEDs 100
Table 8: Thermal Conductivity of Materials used in LED Packages 110
Table 9: Typical Etendue Ratios of Lamp-Based Projection Systems 141
Table 10: Green Lumens vs. Etendue and Year for a 1 sq.mm LED Die 149
Table 11: Green Lumens vs. Etendue and Year 2 sq.mm LED Die 150
Table 12: Green Lumens vs. Etendue and Year 4sq.mm LED Die 151
Table 13: Lumens vs. Etendue and Year 8sq.mm LED Die 152
Table 14: Green Lumens vs. Etendue Ratio and Year (Optimistic) 153
Table 15: Green Lumens vs. Etendue Ratio and Year (Probable) 154
Table 16: Green Lumens vs. Etendue Ratio and Year (Conservative) 155
Table 17: Total Cost of a LED Collection Module (Probable) 162
Table 18: Total cost of a LED Collection Module (Optimistic) 163
Table 19: Total cost of a LED Collection Module (Red) 164
Table 20: Collected Red Lumens vs. Die Area and Year for 0.55" DLP Engine 170
Table 21: Collected Green Lumens vs. Die Area and Year for 0.55" DLP Engine 170
Table 22: Collected Blue Lumens vs. Die Area and Year for 0.55" DLP Engine 171
Table 23: Die Size Corresponding to Tic Marks on Curves 172
Table 24: Luminus Standard Products 181
Table 25: OSRAM OSTAR Specifications 187
Table 26: OSRAM Golden Dragon Specifications 189
Table 27: Luminous Efficiency Forecast (Average) 196