Fixed Mobile Convergence -Worldwide Market Analysis, Strategic Outlook & Forecasts to 2012 (2nd edition)

Table of Contents

• EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• MARKET STATUS
• Market drivers
• FMC defined
• FMC and convergence
  • Figure 2.1: User position pre- and post-convergence in FMC
• The challenge of convergence
• Problems of FMC definition
• FMC for networks, devices and services - a ' pragmatic' definition
  • Top tier stack - generalised definition
  • Second tier stack - device-specific definition
  • Third stack - network-specific definition
  • Fourth stack - service-specific definition
• Defining FMC attributes
  • Figure 2.2: Hierarchy of FMC' s defining attributes
• Basic FMC usage scenarios
• FMC voice usage models
  • Figure 2.3: RAN and application layer role in FMC call event
  • Application layer solutions
• Usage models and sphere of influence
• Mobile network operators
  • Figure 2.4: Mobile network operator usage scenario
• Fixed network operators
  • Figure 2.5: Fixed network operator usage scenario
• Hybrid operators
  • Figure 2.6: Hybrid network operator usage scenario
• Broadband operators
  • Figure 2.7: Broadband network operator usage scenario
• Other operators

• FMC VALUE CHAIN PLAYERS
  • Figure 3.1: Convergence roadmap from an FMC perspective
• Service providers
• Pure mobile network operators
  • Opportunities and threats
  • Models of use
  • Other mobile FMC operators
• Fixed network operators
  • Opportunities and threats
  • Models of use
• Hybrid operators
  • Opportunities and threats
  • Models of use
• Broadband operators
  • Opportunities and threats
  • Models of use
• Other players
  • Specialist VoIP providers
  • MVNOs
    • Figure 3.2: MVNO service evolution stages
  • Commercial Wi-Fi providers
• FMC service provider strategic positioning
  • Figure 3.3: FMC value chain strategic positioning matrix
  • Dominant pure mobile operators
  • Tier 2-3 pure mobile operators
  • Broadband service providers
  • Hybrid operators
  • Other players
• Service support providers
• Device and network manufacturers
• Software application and hardware vendors
  • Network upgrade
  • BSS and OSS/software upgrade
  • OS vendor opportunities
  • Conclusion
• Industry opinion
  • Figure 3.4: The dominant value chain player type in 2012

• STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS
• FMC evolution
  • Figure 4.1: Convergence roadmap from an FMC perspective
• FMC service evolution
• FMC network evolution
  • Figure 4.2: When will convergent networks reach mass-usage levels/domination?
• FMC device evolution
• Corporate reorganisation for FMC players
• Organisational change strategies
  • Figure 4.3: Constraints and enablers for change management in relation to FMC
• Mobile operator attitudes to FMC
• Opex and interconnection
  • Counter argument to the claims that FMC will reduce opex
• Alternative voice platforms
• MNO defined access
• Softswitch solutions and FMC
• IP network integration ROI
  • Vendor perspectives on the evolution of IP and FMC
• Wi-Fi
• Fixed mobile substitution (FMS)
• Mobile operators' tacit support of FMC
• Dual mode device issues
  • Figure 4.4: Is a converged device (a device that fulfils all user requirements from entertainment to communication) required/desired by users?
• Developments conducive to FMC take-up
• Effect of 4G
• Naked DSL
  • Figure 4.5: Network infrastructure and naked DSL
• Unbundling the local loop
• Fibre to the home (FTTH) and fibre to the node (FTTN)

• TECHNICAL CONSIDERATIONS
• Viability of WLAN FMC
  • Figure 5.1: Fixed wireless versus cellular
• Historical fixed wireless voice solutions
  • DECT comparison with fixed wireless FMC
    • Figure 5.2: Selected European historical DECT trials
• Requirements for successful use of FMC WLAN
• Technical challenges and solutions of voice over Wi-Fi
  • Wi-Fi 802.11e standard
  • Wireless Multimedia Extensions (WME)
  • Wi-Fi 802.11r standard
  • Wi-Fi 802.21 standard
• Cost comparison - cellular versus fixed wireless
• WLAN and Wi-Fi from the end user perspective
  • Figure 5.3: Average length of commercial Wi-Fi session
• Challenges of unregulated fixed wireless
• In-building cellular
• Key attributes of in-building cellular solutions
• Distributed Antenna Systems
• Picocells and femtocells
  • Challenges and opportunities
  • Operator developments
    • Figure 5.4: Dominant in-building cellular technologies by 2012
• Next generation mobile technologies
• HSDPA
  • Figure 5.5: Selected global HSDPA launches and trials
  • HSDPA versus WiMAX
    • Figure 5.6: Selected HSDPA capable handsets
  • HSDPA pricing challenge
  • HSDPA and homezone propagation
• WiMAX
  • WiMAX and voice
  • MNO reactions to WiMAX
  • WiMAX developments encouraging convergence
    • Figure 5.7: 802.16m standard evolution
• UMA and IMS
  • Competitive environment
  • Long-tem development of UMA
  • IMS usage models
• Proprietary solutions
  • Naked SIP
• General device strategies
  • Figure 5.8: Selected Wi-Fi devices, launched, planned and discontinued
• Handset vendor and operator relationships
• FMC devices: a new handset segment
  • Figure 5.9: Timescale for dual mode device prevalence
  • Figure 5.10: Consumer and enterprise FMC handset expectations
• Network and access considerations
  • 3GPP Long Term Evolution (LTE)
    • Figure 5.11: UMTS evolution
    • Figure 5.12: LTE position in cellular network evolution
• Air interface

• SERVICE APPROACH AND PROVISIONING STRATEGIES
• Commercial viability of VoIP
  • Figure 6.1: VoIP market approaches - defensive and offensive
• Commercial example: Skype
  • Commercial strategy
  • Skype for enterprise use
• Approach to content and services
• Challenges for FMC services beyond voice
  • Figure 6.2: Are these challenges being adequately tackled by those value chain players involved with them?
• Off-net open access
• Triple and quadruple play
• Consumer and enterprise FMC services
  • Consumer FMC services
  • Enterprise FMC services
• Pricing and service bundling
• Fixed pricing anomalies
• Pricing as an incentive to take up FMC
  • Figure 6.3: Likelihood of flat rate pricing
• Handset pricing
• Advertising/subsidising

• REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
• Europe
  • Figure 7.1: Selected European country broadband household forecasts versus European total, 2007-2012
• Germany
• UK
  • Figure 7.2: Ofcom 1800Mhz low-power auction bidders
• France
• North America
  • Figure 7.3: North American broadband household forecasts, 2007-2012
• US
  • Figure 7.4: Vonage patent infringements
• Canada
• Latin America
  • Figure 7.5: Selected Latin American country broadband household forecasts versus Latin American total,2007-2012
• Brazil
• Mexico
• Asia Pacific
  • Figure 7.6: Selected Asia Pacific country broadband households forecasts versus Asia Pacific total, 2007-2012
• China
• Japan
• South Korea
• India
• Middle East and Africa
  • Figure 7.7: Selected MEA broadband household forecasts versus MEA total, 2007-2012
• Egypt
• South Africa

• CASE STUDIES
• Pure fixed line operator: BT Fusion
• Background
  • Figure 8.1: BT Wireless launches and market strategy
• Service details
• Market focus
• Devices/hardware
• Pricing
• Strategic analysis
• Pure mobile operator: 3 UK X-Series - a convergent service approach
• Background
  • Figure 8.2: 3' s WCDMA network rollout
• Service details
• Market focus
• Devices/hardware
  • Figure 8.3: X-Series devices, launched and planned
• Pricing
  • Figure 8.4: X-Series subscription models
• Strategic analysis
• Hybrid operator: AT&T
• Background
• Service details
  • Figure 8.5: Selected AT&T telecommunication and broadcast services
• Market focus
• Devices/hardware
• Pricing
  • Figure 8.6: Selected unity pricing plans
• Strategic analysis
• Manufacturer: Ubiquisys
• Background
• Network/hardware/service solutions
• Devices.
• Pricing/manufacture costs
• Market focus
• Strategic analysis

• BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
• Market indicators
  • Figure 9.1: Expected completion of network rollout Operator opportunities and challenges
• Mobile operators
  • Analysis of FMC service opportunities and challenges for mobile operators
    • Figure 9.2: Reduced opex FMC routed cellular call Tier 2-3 mobile operators
• Fixed operators
  • Analysis of FMC service opportunities and challenges for fixed operators
• Hybrid operators
  • Analysis of FMC service opportunities and challenges for hybrid operators
• Broadband operators
  • Analysis of FMC service opportunities and challenges for broadband operators
• Other players
  • Figure 9.3: Global MVNO service segments, 3Q06
• Customer opportunities and challenges
• Consumer
  • Advantages and opportunities
  • Challenges and threats
• Enterprise
  • Advantages and opportunities
  • Challenges and threats
• Convenience
• Consumer sector analysis
• Enterprise sector analysis
  • Figure 9.4: Selected PBX providers and proprietary protocols
• Customer business models
• Choosing the appropriate customer segment
• Customer proposition
• Service opportunities
  • Figure 9.5: Commercial FMC service launch
  • Figure 9.6: Launched service' s customer targets
  • Figure 9.7: Service development by 2012
• VoIP
  • Figure 9.8: In your opinion, what percentage of global cellular traffic will migrate to fixed (including fixedwireless Wi-Fi)?
  • Figure 9.9: FMC service revenue generation as a percentage of total revenues in 2010 and 2015
• Enterprise use of VoIP
  • Figure 9.10: FMC enterprise service revenue generation as a percentage of total FCMC revenues in 2010
• Commercial models of VoIP
  • Figure 9.11: Global Wi-Fi hot spot distribution
  • Figure 9.12: Regional Wi-Fi usage, 2006
  • Figure 9.13: Top countries for Wi-Fi use and average session length. 2006
• Skype
• Content partnerships and advertising
• FMC services and the DRM challenge

• FORECASTS
• FMC forecasts' methodology and definition
• FMC subscribers
  • Definition
  • Forecasting methodology
    • Figure 10.1: FMC primary indicators
• FMC revenue forecasting methodology
• Top-line figures and analysis
• General assumptions
• Early inflection points - global analysis
  • Figure 10.2: Total FMC voice business and consumer subscribers, 2007-2012
• Regional analysis
  • Figure 10.3: Total FMC voice subscribers by region, 2007-2012
  • Figure 10.4: Total FMC voice revenues by region, 2007-2012
• Regional market indicators
  • North America.
    • Figure 10.5: North American FMC voice subscribers, 2007-2012
    • Figure 10.6: North American FMC voice revenues, 2007-2012
  • Latin America
    • Figure 10.7: Latin American FMC voice subscribers, 2007-2012
    • Figure 10.8: Latin American FMC voice revenues, 2007-2012
  • Asia Pacific
    • Figure 10.9: Asia Pacific FMC voice subscribers, 2007-2012
    • Figure 10.10: Asia Pacific FMC voice revenues, 2007-2012
  • Europe
    • Figure 10.11: European FMC voice subscribers, 2007-2012
    • Figure 10.12: European FMC voice revenues, 2007-2012
  • Africa and the Middle East
    • Figure 10.13: Africa and the Middle East FMC voice subscribers, 2007-2012
    • Figure 10.14: Africa and the Middle East FMC voice revenues, 2007-2012
• Business and consumer forecasts
  • Figure 10.15: Business and consumer FMC voice subscriber forecasts by business and consumer, 2007-2012
  • Figure 10.16: Business and consumer FMC voice revenue forecasts by business and consumer, 2007-2012

APPENDIX

INFORMA TELECOMS & MEDIA FMC INDUSTRY SURVEY 2007