WCIS Insight: Multiple SIMS-Quantifying the phenomenon taking mobile penetration beyond 100%

Table of Contents

• INTRODUCTION
• When is a subscriber not a subscriber?
  • Figure 1.1: Subscription penetration vs. subscriber penetration by region

• EUROPE & THE AMERICAS
• Italy
  • Figure 2.1: Mobile subscription penetration in Italy
• Accounting latency translates into higher penetration levels
  • Figure 2.2: Activity level in Vodafone' s subscription base in Italy, 2Q04-4Q06
• The effect of tariff promotions on penetration levels
  • Figure 2.3: Wind subscriptions using ' on-net' calling plans
• Use of multiple devices inflates penetration rate
• The Italian mobile market has yet to reach saturation
  • Figure 2.4: Promotional material for Primofonino
• Subscription figures provide unreliable performance indicator
• UK
  • Figure 2.5: UK subscriptions and penetration, 2002-2006
  • Figure 2.6: Prepaid vs. postpaid subscriptions in the UK
• Russia
  • Figure 2.7: Russian SIM penetration vs. user penetration
  • Figure 2.8: Prepaid subscriptions as percentage of total subscriptions in Russia
• Colombia
  • Figure 2.9: Mobile subscription penetration in Colombia
  • Figure 2.10: Prepaid vs postpaid subscriptions in Colombia, 2002-2006
• Colombia Movil strategy has major impact

• AFRICA & THE MIDDLE EAST
• Nigeria
  • Figure 3.1: Facts about the Nigerian mobile market
  • Figure 3.2: Prepaid vs. postpaid subscriptions in Nigeria
  • Figure 3.3: Mobile penetration vs. multiple SIM usage in Nigeria
• A trend now fuelled by flexible disconnection policies
  • Figure 3.4: MTN coverage vs. multiple SIM usage in Nigeria
• Multiple-SIM usage still a high-end/business trend despite low entry level
  • Figure 3.5: Reasons for actively using more than one SIM (%)
• Trend the highest among CDMA users
• An urban trend
• Outlook: is Nigeria representative of sub-Saharan Africa?
• Saudi Arabia
  • Figure 3.6: Prepaid vs. postpaid subscriptions in Saudi Arabia
• Extra subscriptions estimated to account for 40% of total
  • Figure 3.7: Estimated level of multiple subscriptions in Saudi Arabia, 2Q05-4Q06
  • Figure 3.8: ARPU in Saudi Arabia

• ASIA PACIFIC
• China
  • Figure 4.1: Mobile subscription penetration in China
• Over 60% of mobile subscriptions in China are prepaid by end of 2006
  • Figure 4.2: China Mobile subscriptions, prepaid vs. total
  • Figure 4.3: China Unicom GSM subscriptions, prepaid vs. total
  • Figure 4.4: China Unicom CDMA subscriptions, prepaid vs. total
• Two-way charging and high roaming fees encourage multiple-SIM ownership
• Indonesia
• Strong growth of national operators masks success of local CDMA players
  • Figure 4.5: Population and subscription penetration in Indonesia
  • Figure 4.6: Prepaid subscriptions as a percentage of total in Indonesia
  • Figure 4.7: Regional Wireless Local Loop (WLL) operator subscriptions (1Q06 - 4Q06)
• Reality check: reported v actual figures and churn disparity
• Revenue rising, ARPU declining
  • Figure 4.8: Blended ARPU of major Indonesian operators
• Low cost of secondhand devices makes phones affordable
  • Figure 4.9: GDP and handset prices in Indonesia
• Multiple subscriptions or new growth?