Mobile Broadband Access at Home: The Business Case for Femtocells, UMA and IMS/VCC Dual Mode Solutions

Table of Contents

• EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Introduction
• The scope of the report
  • Figure 1.1: Summary of traffic and infrastructure forecast methodology
• The health of mobile and fixed telecoms markets
• The mobile market landscape
  • Figure 1.2 : Global mobile voice versus data services revenue, 2007-2012
• The fixed market landscape
  • Figure 1.3: Global PSTN voice versus broadband revenues, 2007-2013
• The migration from FMS to FMC
• Impact of the divergence between mobile data' s traffic and revenues
  • Figure 1.4: Global mobile data revenues and traffic, 2007-2012
• Mobile traffic at home
  • Figure 1.5: Global mobile traffic distribution by zone area, 2007-2013
• Offloading capacity and infrastructure cost
  • Figure 1.6: Annual femtocell cost compared to equivalent macrocell capacity upgrade for 3G/3.5G networks, 2009-2013
• Mobile Access at Home enabling technologies
• Femtocells
• Alternative technologies
• UMA
• IMS/VCC
• Vendor strategies for femtocells
• Operator strategies and the business for MAH
• Pure mobile operators
• Hybrid operators
• Fixed operators

• GLOBAL TELECOMS OVERVIEW AND CONVERGENCE TRENDS
• Mobile networks evolution towards broadband
• Introduction
• Cellular market evolution
  • Figure 2.1: Mobile network generations and deployment timelines
• The case of WiMAX
  • Figure 2.2: The role of WiMAX in fixed-wireless-mobile broadband convergence
• Mobile broadband subscribers by technology, compared with wired, 2007-2013
  • Figure 2.3: Global total mobile, wired broadband and wireless broadband subscribers, by wired and wireless, 2007-2013
  • Figure 2.4: Global total mobile subscribers, by region, 2007-2013
  • Figure 2.5: Global total wireless broadband subscribers, by region, 2007-2013
  • Figure 2.6: Global total wired broadband subscribers, by region, 2007-2013
  • Figure 2.7: Global mobile subscribers, by technology, 2007-2013
• The landscape of fixed broadband networks and subscribers
• Market development and evolution
• Mobile operators' strategies for fixed-line services
• Mobile and wired services revenues: voice vs. data
• Mobile service revenues, 2007-2012
  • Figure 2.8: Global mobile voice versus data services revenue, 2007-2012
• PSTN versus fixed broadband data revenues, 2007-2013
  • Figure 2.9: Global PSTN voice versus broadband revenues, 2007-2013
• The significance of mobile data services
• Mobile terminal software evolution and the role of smartphones
• Data traffic outpacing revenues, 2007-2012
  • Figure 2.10: Global mobile data revenues and traffic, 2007-2012
• The Web 2.0 phenomena
  • How will it impact mobile data traffic?
• Fixed mobile substitution and its strategic importance
• Market overview and trends
• The main driving strategies for FMS
  • Minutes bundling and ‘bucket' price plans
  • The mobile-only home
  • Homezone plans and evolution
    • Figure 2.11: West Europe main homezone services, by country, 2008
• Fixed mobile convergence trends
• The challenge of mobile backhaul

• FEMTOCELL IMPLEMENTATIONS , OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
• Femtocell core network connectivity options
• Iub over IP
  • Figure 3.1: Iub over IP femtocell network
• Iu over IP and RAN gateways
  • Figure 3.2: Iu over IP femtocell network
  • Proprietary approach
  • UMA
  • Figure 3.3: UMA femtocell network
• A protocol in the making: Iu-h
  • Figure 3.4: Details of the Iu-h protocol
• SIP/IMS
  • Figure 3.5: SIP/IMS femtocell network
• Femtocell standardisation issues
  • Figure 3.6: Major femtocell standardisation bodies and their activities
• Femto Forum
• 3GPP
• 3GPP2
• DSL Forum
• Conclusion
• Femtocell access points (FAPs)
  • Figure 3.7: Major FAP manufacturers, 2008
  • Figure 3.8: Selection of FAPs
• FAP costs
  • Figure 3.9: Simple and integrated femtocell components
• From discrete components to integrated platforms
• Femtocell ecosystem and the level of support from infrastructure vendors
  • Figure 3.10: Infrastructure vendor involvement strategies
• FAP manufacturers and their role in the value chain
  • Figure 3.11: Netgear Femtocell Voice Gateway
• Femtocell implementation issues
• Open and closed access
  • Figure 3.12: Open and closed access usage scenarios
• Radio resource management and interference
  • 3GPP TR 25.820 study
    • Figure 3.13: High priority 3GPP femtocell interference scenarios
  • Vendor activities
  • Femtocell positioning
    • Figure 3.14: Interference scenarios for macro-femto coexistence
• Scalability
• Ease of use
• FAP management
  • Figure 3.15: TR-069 Architecture
• End user resistance and concerns
• Service quality and security
• Security - social issues

• ALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGIES
• UMA
• Technology
  • Figure 4.1: UMA operation
• UMA evolution
• UMA business case
• Deployments
  • BT Fusion
  • Orange Unik
  • Other UMA deployments
    • Figure 4.2: Global UMA deployments, 2008
• Comparison of UMA with femtocells
  • Strengths of UMA compared with femtocells
  • Weaknesses of UMA compared with femtocells
    • Figure 4.3: UMA mobile handsets, as of 2Q08
• VCC
  • Figure 4.4: Potential signalling and bearer handover between the circuit-switched domain and IMS
  • Figure 4.5: Operators and vendors leading VCC specification developments, 2008
• VCC compared with UMA
  • Figure 4.6: VCC and UMA operation
• SIP implementations
• Background
• How open is SIP?
• IETF vs. 3GPP SIP
• Dual mode services vs. femtocells
  • Figure 4.7: Comparison of dual mode services and femtocells
• Opportunities and challenges in FMC and FMS
• FMC
  • Figure 4.8: Advantages and disadvantages of FMC
• FMS
• FMC, FMS and mobile access at home
  • Figure 4.9: Operator requirements and opportunities in FMC/FMS
  • FMC service evolution
    • Figure 4.10: FMC service roadmap

• OPERATOR BUSINESS CASE FOR MOBILE ACCESS AT HOME
• Introduction
• The limitations of the current mobile access at home
• Mobile usage growth in the home environment
  • Figure 5.1: Mobile traffic at peak hours by residential and non-residential areas, 2008 vs. 2013
• Coverage issues
  • Figure 5.2: Radio signal attenuation: effect on coverage at home for different access networks
• Capacity issues
  • Figure 5.3: Signal strength and power requirements for different wireless access generations
• Impact on the user experience of mobile access at home
• Current mobile network status
• Costs and benefits: macrocell vs. femtocell
  • Figure 5.4: Femtocells' role in providing better coverage at home
• Value proposition and challenges of providing mobile access at home
• Cost justification
  • Figure 5.5: The value proposition for MAH services including voice and data
• The roadmap for mobile access at home services
• Cost reduction: the role of femtocells and alternative technologies
• Traffic growth and its challenge to network capacity
  • Figure 5.6: Mobile operator revenue and traffic decoupling
  • Is network sharing the answer?
• The backhaul: removing the capacity bottlenecks
• The role of femtocells
• The business case for femtocells and alternative technologies
  • Figure 5.7: The business case for deploying mobile access at home solutions
• Mobile operators
  • Importance of home subscribers
  • The next generation homezone business case
  • MAH versus naked Wi-Fi
  • Cost savings
  • Marketing MAH solutions
• Integrated operators
  • FMC
  • Wi-Fi versus mobile broadband or Wi-Fi and mobile broadband?
• Fixed-line operators
• Femtocells: barriers to deployment
  • Figure 5.8: Femtocell barriers to deployment

• MOBILE ACCESS AT HOME : MARKET AND TRENDS
• Evolution of mobile access at home
  • Figure 6.1: The global industry roadmap towards convergence
• The commercial reality of mobile access at home services
  • Figure 6.2: Comparison of different mobile access at home solutions
• The commercial reality of femtocells and their market evolution
  • Figure 6.3: The roadmap of femtocell services
• The commercial reality for UMA/WLAN and VCC/WLAN
  • UMA/WLAN services
  • VCC/WLAN services
• Mobile broadband access at home forecast methodology
• Defining users of MAH services
• Defining different MAH solutions
  • Figure 6.4: Mobile access at home segments for forecasts, 2007-2013
• MAH service user forecast methodology
• Femtocell access point (FAP) forecast methodology
• UMA subscriber forecasts by region, 2007-2013
  • Figure 6.5: Global mobile subscribers with UMA handsets, by region, 2007-2013
• IMS/VCC subscriber forecasts by region, 2007-2013
  • Figure 6.6: Global mobile subscribers with IMS/VCC devices, by region, 2007-2013
• Femtocell market analysis and forecasts, 2007-2013
• User forecasts and regional differences
  • Figure 6.7: Global femtocell users, by region, 2007-2013
  • Europe
  • Asia Pacific
  • North America
• Market analysis and forecasts by mobile network technology
  • 2G/2.5G technologies
    • Figure 6.8: Global femtocell deployment, by region and wireless technology, 2007-2013
    • Figure 6.9: Global femtocell deployment, by wireless technology generation, 2009-2013
  • 3G/3.5G
  • WiMAX/LTE
• Standalone versus integrated approaches
  • Market opportunities for the two approaches
  • Market forecasts by technology and region
    • Figure 6.10: Global femtocell deployment, standalone versus integrated approach, by region and wireless technology, 2007-2013
    • Figure 6.11: Global femtocell deployment, standalone versus integrated approach, 2009-2013

• FEMTOCELLS VS . MACROCELLS : TRAFFIC FORECASTS AND COST ANALYSIS
• Introduction
• Traffic forecasts methodology
• Motivations and exclusivity
• Overall scope and methodology
  • Figure 7.1: Summary of traffic and infrastructure forecast methodology
• Mobile network traffic forecast methodology
• Mobile macro-network infrastructure forecast methodology
  • Base station requirements: capacity vs. coverage
    • Figure 7.2: Land mass coverage by geotype
  • Radio access capex
    • Figure 7.3: Parameters used to calculate the total radio access capex
• Mobile backhaul capacity and cost forecast methodology
• Operational forecast methodology
• Femtocell network infrastructure cost forecast methodology
• Mapping mobile voice and data usage, 2007-2013
• Mobile voice usage
  • Figure 7.4: The map of voice MoU by zone area (home, office, out of home/office and on the move), 2007-2013
• Mobile data usage
  • Figure 7.5: The map of data traffic by zone area (home, office, out of home/office and on the move), 2007-2013
• Femto traffic offload vs. macro-traffic in the home, 2007-2013
  • Figure 7.6: Global mobile traffic: femtocell vs. macrocell (residential and non-residential), by region, 2007-2013
  • Figure 7.7: Global mobile traffic: femtocell vs. macrocell (residential and non-residential), 2007-2013
• Asia Pacific
  • Figure 7.8: Asia Pacific mobile traffic: femtocell vs. macrocell (residential and non-residential), 2007-2013
• Europe
  • Figure 7.9: Europe mobile traffic: femtocell vs. macrocell (residential and non-residential), 2007-2013
• North America
  • Figure 7.10: North America mobile traffic: femtocell vs. macrocell (residential and non-residential), 2007-2013
• Latin America
  • Figure 7.11: Latin America mobile traffic: femtocell vs. macrocell (residential and non-residential), 2007-2013
• Middle East and Africa
  • Figure 7.12: Africa/Middle East mobile traffic: femtocell vs. macrocell (residential and non-residential), 2007-2013
• Femtocell infrastructure cost forecasts, 2007-2013
• Femtocell equipment cost breakdown
  • Figure 7.13: Femtocell infrastructure: breakdown of cost per unit, 2009-2013
• Femtocell capital investments by technology and by region
  • Figure 7.14: Global femtocell capital expenditure by region and by wireless access technology, 2009-2013
  • Regional differences
    • Figure 7.15: Global femtocell capital expenditure by region, 2009-2013
  • Investment by wireless access technology
    • Figure 7.16: Global femtocell capital expenditure by wireless access technology, 2009-2013
• Femtocells vs. macrocells: infrastructure cost forecasts, 2007-2013
• The cost of equivalent macrocell infrastructure (CEMI)
  • Figure 7.17: Global total cost of equivalent macrocell infrastructure (CEMI) cost breakdown (capex, opex, backhaul), by region, 2007-2013
  • Figure 7.18: Global total CEMI cost breakdown (capex, opex, backhaul), 2009-2013
• Femtocells vs. macrocells: infrastructure cost analysis
  • Figure 7.19: Femtocells infrastructure cost vs. equivalent macrocell infrastructure cost, by technology, 2009-2013
  • The case of 2G/2.5G
  • The case of 3G/3.5G
  • The case of LTE and WiMAX
• Femtocell device subsidies
  • Figure 7.20: Effect of FAP subsidies: annual cost savings for deploying femtocell solutions, 2009-2013

• OPERATOR CASE STUDIES AND IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIOS FOR FEMTOCELLS
• Introduction
  • Figure 8.1: Benefits of mobile access at home solutions for operators
  • Figure 8.2: Typical operator involvement for femtocells
  • Figure 8.3: Femtocell involvement and strategies for selected operators, May 2008
• Pure mobile operators
• Hybrid operators
• Fixed operators
• Operators' femtocell strategies: the early adopters
• Sprint Nextel' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
    • Figure 8.4: US: Sprint' s Airave femtocell device
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
  • Initial feedback
• NTT DoCoMo' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
    • Figure 8.5: Japan: NTT DoCoMo picocell and femtocell comparison
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
    • Figure 8.6: DoCoMo' s femtocell device evolution
• Operators' femtocell strategies: followers
• Vodafone' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
    • Figure 8.7: Vodafone' s cellular-fixed interface device
    • Figure 8.8: Vodafone' s opportunities regarding femtocells and fixed strategy
• T-Mobile' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
    • Figure 8.9: US: T-Mobile USA access at home services: HotSpot@Home and @Home, 2008
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
• TeliaSonera' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
• Softbank' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
    • Figure 8.10: Japan: Softbank' s femtocell deployment timeline
• AT&T' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
• Telefonica O2' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
• Other operators' femtocell strategies
• Operators' femtocell strategies: skeptics
• Orange' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • ‘Access at home' activities
    • Figure 8.11: Orange France Unik subscription options, May 2008
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market
• BT' s femtocell strategy
  • Operator overview
  • Femtocell and ‘access at home' activities
  • Strategy in the mobile access at home market

• VENDOR CASE STUDIES
• Introduction
• Incumbent infrastructure vendors
• Challengers
• Vendor-specific vs. standardized network interface
• Incumbent infrastructure vendors in the femtocell market
• Case study: Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
    • Figure 9.1: NSN Femto Gateway compatibility, as at May 2008
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.2: SWOT analysis for NSN' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: Sonus Networks' femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
    • Figure 9.3: Sonus Networks' MobilEdge femtocell compatibility
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.4: SWOT analysis for Sonus Networks' femtocell strategy
• Case study: Ericsson' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.5: Ericsson FC2500 GSM/EDGE femtocell
    • Figure 9.6: Ericsson FC2500 femtocell, selected properties
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.7: SWOT analysis for Ericssson' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: Alcatel-Lucent' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.8: Alcatel-Lucent 9365 Base Station Router Femto, selected properties
    • Figure 9.9: Alcatel-Lucent 9365 Base Station Router Femto (WCDMA version)
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.10: SWOT analysis for Alcatel-Lucent' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: Motorola' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.11: Motorola AXPT, 8000 and 8100 femtocell, selected properties
    • Figure 9.12: Motorola 8000 femtocell
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.13: SWOT analysis for Motorola' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: Huawei' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.14: Huawei UMTS Home AP femtocell (publicly available information)
    • Figure 9.15: Huawei UMTS Home AP femtocell
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.16: SWOT analysis for Huawei' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: NEC' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.17: SWOT analysis for NEC' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: Kineto Wireless' femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.18: SWOT analysis for Kineto' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: ZTE' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.19: ZTE' s femtocell, selected properties
    • Figure 9.20: ZTE' s femtocell device
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.21: SWOT analysis for ZTE femtocell strategy
• Case study: Sagem' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.22: SWOT analysis for Sagem femtocell strategy
• Femtocell vendor profiles
• Case study: ip.access' femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.23: ip.access Oyster3G femtocell, selected properties
    • Figure 9.24: ip.access Oyster3G femtocell devices
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.25: SWOT analysis for ip.access femtocell strategy
• Case study: Ubiquisys' femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.26: Ubiquisys' s Zonegate femtocell, selected properties
    • Figure 9.27: Ubiquisys Zonegate femtocell device
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.28: SWOT analysis for Ubiquisys femtocell strategy
• Case study: Airvana' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.29: Airvana HubBub femtocell, selected properties
    • Figure 9.30: Airvana HubBub femtocell
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.31: SWOT analysis for Airvana' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: Airwalk' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.32: Airwalk Edgepoint femtocell, selected properties
    • Figure 9.33: Airwalk Edgepoint femtocell
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.34: SWOT analysis for Airwalk' s femtocell strategy
• Case study: RadioFrame' s femtocell strategy
  • Company overview
  • Products and solutions
    • Figure 9.35: RadioFrame Networks OmniCell@Home femtocell, selected properties
  • Customers and partners in the femtocell market
  • Strategy and vision including SWOT analysis
    • Figure 9.36: SWOT analysis for RadioFrame Networks' femtocell strategy
• Other vendors and home gateway device manufacturers' femtocell strategies
• Hardware platform and software providers' femtocell strategies
• The picoChip/Continuous Computing joint femtocell solution
  • Figure 9.37: picoChip/Continuous Computing reference platform for femtocell devices

• FUTURE OUTLOOK
• Femtocell deployment issues
• Handover
• Radio resource management
• Handset issues
• Regulatory aspects
• Network neutrality
  • Femtocell operation over a non-affiliated broadband connection
• Femtocell: Mini Node B or CPE?
• Indirect regulatory aspects and the Chinese telecoms market
• Femtocell standardization issues
• Relevant standards and organisations
• IEEE
  • 802.11r
  • 802.11u
  • 802.21
    • Figure 10.1: 802.21 technology compatibility
    • Figure 10.2: Summary of network interworking standards
• 3GPP: standard evolution towards LTE
• NGMN
• WiMAX Forum
• 3GPP2
• GSMA
• Femto Forum
• Femtocells in the enterprise market