Mobile VoIP

Table of Contents

1. Executive summary 6

• 1.1. International calls are the only real advantage 7
• 1.2. Summary of strategies of independent players 7
• 1.3. Google Voice is a potential game changer 8
• 1.4. The general trend of leaders versus challengers 9
• 1.5. The key factors effecting mobile VoIP take-off 10
• 1.6. IDATE forecasts 10

2. Mobile VoIP description 12

• 2.1. Market overview 12
• 2.2. Technology description 13

3. Technical enablers for mobile VoIP 16

• 3.1. User experience 16
  • 3.1.1. Usability 16
  • 3.1.2. Availability 16
  • 3.1.3. QoS 17
• 3.2. Networks 18
  • 3.2.1. WiFi coverage will remain spotty 18
  • 3.2.2. 2G networks are not suited for Mobile VoIP 18
  • 3.2.3. 3G networks: capacity trade-off 18
  • 3.2.4. LTE networks: multiple options for voice 19
• 3.3. Handsets 21
  • 3.3.1. 3G handsets 21
  • 3.3.2. WiFi compliant phones 22

4. The myths and realities of mobile VoIP pricing 23

• 4.1. Mobile VoIP not very mobile - often limited to WiFi only 23
• 4.2. Free calls do not come cheap 23
• 4.3. International calls are very attractive, whether WiFi or not 25
• 4.4. National calls are competitive at best 28
• 4.5. In conclusion; international calls are the only real advantage 31

5. Strategies of independent (over-the-top) players 32

• 5.1. The end of the simple no-frills era 32
  • 5.1.1. Skype has won the winner-takes-all battle 32
  • 5.1.2. The battle for pre-installation on mobile phones 33
• 5.2. Looking beyond just VoIP calling 34
  • 5.2.1. Truphone going global 34
  • 5.2.2. Fring getting social 35
  • 5.2.3. Jajah working behind the scenes 37
• 5.3. Summary of independent player strategies 38

6. Strategies of Internet giants 39

• 6.1. Google Voice: an alternative approach to the independent mobile VoIP players 39
  • 6.1.1. What is Google Voice? 39
  • 6.1.2. The strategy of Google Voice 40
• 6.2. Google Voice is a potential game changer 41

7. Strategies of mobile network operators 43

• 7.1. Germany: operator split strategies 43
• 7.2. H3G: full support of mobile VoIP 44
• 7.3. The general trend of leaders versus challengers 45

8. Mobile operators can, and will, manage VoIP 47

• 8.1. Lessons learned from fixed VoIP 47
  • 8.1.1. Carrier-managed VoIP can be a success... 47
  • 8.1.2. ... even fending off the independent players 48
• 8.2. A means to increase mobile data revenue 49
  • 8.2.1. Transferring the fixed VoIP success to mobile 49
  • 8.2.2. The potential to increase data revenue 49
  • 8.2.3. No enforced regulation, but pressure increasing 50

9. Scenarios and forecasts 51

• 9.1. The key factors effecting mobile VoIP take-off 51
• 9.2. Mobile VoIP user forecasts 53
  • 9.2.1. France: slow take-off but rapid uptake 53
  • 9.2.2. Germany: steady progress 53
  • 9.2.3. UK: aggressive strategies driving the market 53
  • 9.2.4. US: resistance from MNOs starting to ease 54
  • 9.2.5. IDATE forecasts 54

Tables & Figures

• Table 1: Table of data plans for the MNOs of France, Germany, UK and US 24
• Table 2: Examples of mobile VoIP offers 25
• Table 3: Table of international call tariffs for the MNOs of the US 26
• Table 4: Unlimited voice call tariffs for MNOs in France, Germany, UK and US 28
• Table 5: Examples of mobile VoIP packages 40
• Table 6: Free VoIP tariffs 48

• Figure 1: The three key factors for managed VoIP success 6
• Figure 2: Comparison of price competitiveness between mobile VoIP and MNO plans 7
• Figure 3: Summary of the strategies of Skype, Truphone, fring and Jajah 7
• Figure 4: Skype versus Google Voice 8
• Figure 5: German and UK MNO positioning on mobile VoIP service 9
• Figure 6: Key factors affecting mobile VoIP take-off in France, Germany, UK and US 10
• Figure 7: Mobile VoIP users as a percentage of total mobile subscribers 10
• Figure 8: Mobile VoIP user forecast: France, Germany, UK and US 11
• Figure 9: World mobile data and voice revenues, 2009 12
• Figure 10: Breakdown of mouth-to-ear delay 17
• Figure 11: CS fallback architecture 19
• Figure 12: VoLGA: Voice over LTE via Generic Access 20
• Figure 13: GSM / 3G / LTE-enabled handsets (% of installed phones in Western Europe) 21
• Figure 14: WiFi compliant phones sales 22
• Figure 15: Data ARPU depending on device 24
• Figure 16: International call charges by Vodafone UK 27
• Figure 17: Mobile VoIP calling offer using the mobile Internet, by fring 30
• Figure 18: Comparison of price competitiveness between mobile VoIP and MNO plans 31
• Figure 19: SWOT analysis of Skype 34
• Figure 20: SWOT analysis of Truphone 35
• Figure 21: The fring network structure 36
• Figure 22: SWOT analysis of fring 36
• Figure 23: Yahoo! Voice service in collaboration with Jajah 37
• Figure 24: SWOT analysis of Jajah 38
• Figure 25: Summary of the strategies of Skype, Truphone, fring and Jajah 38
• Figure 26: Google Voice service offering 39
• Figure 27: SWOT analysis of Google Voice 41
• Figure 28: Skype versus Google Voice 42
• Figure 29: The Skype package on the 3 network 44
• Figure 30: Trends in mobile market shares in the UK, 2004-2008 45
• Figure 31: German and UK MNO positioning on mobile VoIP service 46
• Figure 32: Areas included in the Freebox plan 48
• Figure 33: French fixed VoIP subscriber numbers, December 2008 49
• Figure 34: The three key factors for managed VoIP success 50
• Figure 35: Key factors affecting mobile VoIP take-off in France, Germany, UK and US 52
• Figure 36: Mobile VoIP users as a percentage of total mobile subscribers 54
• Figure 37: Mobile VoIP user forecast: France, Germany, UK and US (million users) 55