Contents
1/ HISTORY OF NETWORK DEPLOYMENT IN EUROPE
Analysis of each networks strengths and weaknesses
Coverage
- Topography and living conditions in European countries; the weight of history
- Satellite: limits of penetration in city zones, unknowns of shared antennae
- Cable: different levels of deployment in each country
- Terrestrial broadcasting: principal or residual network?
- ADSL: bottlenecks on the phone lines, and impact of ADSL 2
- Comparative view of the networks coverage in the different countries
Network capacity
- Two shared issues: progress in compression standards; future of HDTV still unknown
- Satellite: analogue switch off will increase capacity
- Cable: digitisation will free up capacity
- DTT: little capacity in the short term; long term prospect of taking over frequencies currently dicated to analogue
- ADSL: bitrates and bottlenecks
Digitisation
- Stakes that digitisation represents
- Satellite: all digital pay-TV; Free to air in the works
- Cable: cablecos new strategy of speeding up network digitisation
- DTT: uncertainties over launch
- ADSL: all digital from the outset
Evolution towards a bundled offering
- Technical issues
- Stakes and challenges of triple play bundles
- Homogenisation of regulatory frameworks
- Satellite: state of internet access offers ? other paths: combining networks?
- DTT: a TV offer only?
- Cable and ADSL: two rivals on the triple play market
2/ COMMERCIAL OFFERS
Television: shifting boundaries of paid and free offers
Which service drives triple play offers?
- Paying for access
- Paying for the service
Case study of existing offers
- Telephony-centric offers
- Television-centric offers
- What quality of service?
3/ COMPARATIVE EFFICIENCY OF BROADCASTING NETWORKS
Cost structures
- Difficulties pinpointed in comparing the different networks costs: potentially sizeable differences in the services offered, the zone of coverage, the costs and the markets
- Components of the different networks economies: transport network, connection network, local loop, subscriber equipment
Comparison of the networks economies
- Network cost simulations, based on key parameters: nature of the service (TV only, or combined TV and internet access), the networks service zone, the services rate of penetration
- The networks efficiency, measured by one indicator: the annual per household cost of supplying a channel
- Results of the comparison of annual costs for supplying a channel
4/ OPERATORS
Distinct value chains
For each type of operator, evaluation of financial streams on the value-added chain:
- Satellite: separation of roles between the commercial operator and the network operator (Free to air channels, pay-TV channels)
- Terrestrial broadcasting: a single operator or separation of tasks? (Free to air channels, pay-TV channels)
- Cable: a single operator or separation of tasks: which scheme will dominate?
- ADSL: several schemes on trial
Disparate economic situations
- Cablecos: restructuring
- Satellite: seeking new growth paths
- ADSL: driving force of high-speed internet
- DTT: growth relay for TV broadcasting
- TV channels: general interest channels in the pink; shaky health for some specialty channels
Single or multi-network strategy?
- TV channels tending to increase their distribution networks
- Connection between cable operators and ADSL operators
- Satellite operators focused on a single area of business
- Terrestrial TV operators: looking to diversify?
- Network ownership is still more important than the service
5/ NETWORK DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS FOR THE DIFFERENT EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
Analytical components
- Case study: the situation in the United States
- Benchmark: the situation in Japan
- State of competition: the Free to air TV services market, the pay-TV services market, the internet access market
Competition scenarios
- Case 1: "Cable is king"
- Case 2: "Competition between cable & ADSL over bundled offers"
- Case 3: "ADSL shakes up the pay-TV market"
Market growth forecasts 2004-2009
For Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the UK
- Breakdown of TV households 2004-2009
- Breakdown of TV households by network
- Evolution of the breakdown of TV households by network 2004-2009
5/ CONCLUSION: WHO WILL BE THE WINNER?
- ...in terms of subscribers
- ... in terms of profitability
- ... in terms of minimising risk
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