FTTx Economics - Conditions for profitability

1. Very High Speed developments in progress

• 1.1. Overall level of VHS deployment
• 1.2. Projects by country
• 1.3. Lessons from first deployments
  • 1.3.1. VHS infrastructure regulations
  • 1.3.2. Availability and accessibility of passive infrastructures
  • 1.3.3. Network architecture
  • 1.3.4. The broadband market and competitive landscape
  • 1.3.5. Demography and dwelling-unit types

2. Simulations and business models

• 2.1. The players
  • 2.1.1. Incumbents
  • 2.1.2. Alternative operators
  • 2.1.3. New entrants
  • 2.1.4. Energy suppliers
  • 2.1.5. The players: a comparison
• 2.2. The model
  • 2.2.1. Model structure
  • 2.2.2. General hypotheses
• 2.3. The effects of the adjustment variables
  • 2.3.1. Architectural options
  • 2.3.2. Types of dwelling units
  • 2.3.3. Coverage and penetration
  • 2.3.4. Rate of deployment
  • 2.3.5. The players and methods of accessing passive infrastructures
  • 2.3.6. Structure of competition
  • 2.3.7. ARPU

3. Summary and analysis

• 3.1. Deployment economy of VHS access networks according to the different scenarios
  • 3.1.1. FTTH from very dense areas to moderately dense areas
  • 3.1.2. Nationwide FTTN+VDSL deployment
• 3.2. Key factors and main obstacles for VHS profitability

APPENDICES

• 1. Appendix 1: Project technical sheets
• 2. Appendix 2: Technical definitions
• 3. Appendix 3: Economic performance details by scenario
• 4. Appendix 4: Glossary

Illustrations

• Table 1 Number of FTTH subscribers by region at the end of 2006
• Table 2 Number of FTTH subscribers in Europe by country at the end of 2006
• Table 3 The 14 VHS projects analysed
• Table 4 SWOT Matrix: Incumbents
• Table 5 SWOT Matrix: Alternative operators
• Table 6 SWOT Matrix: New entrants
• Table 7 SWOT Matrix: Energy suppliers
• Table 8 Primary advantages and risks for the main VHS players
• Table 9 Cost variables of the model
• Table 10 Summary of the key factors and main obstacles for VHS deployment profitability

• Figure 1 General structure of the model
• Figure 2 FTTN+VDSL architecture
• Figure 3 Point-To-Point Ethernet Technology (E-P2P)
• Figure 4 PON technology
• Figure 5 Cost per connected outlet by architectural type in the urban context
• Figure 6 Cost per outlet connection per dwelling-unit type for GPON technology
• Figure 7 Cost per outlet connection per dwelling-unit type for FTTN+VDSL technology
• Figure 8 Civil engineering and cable costs based on population density(1) for GPON technology
• Figure 9 Civil engineering and cable costs based on the average number of apartments per building for GPON technology(1)
• Figure 10 Investment level per subscriber according to penetration rate based on the urban context and GPON technology
• Figure 11 Impact on investment per subscriber by shifting the penetration rate from 30% to 60%, based on the urban context for the three main architectures
• Figure 12 The level of investment per subscriber based on the coverage rate within the urban context and GPON technology using a penetration/coverage ratio of 50%
• Figure 13 Impact on investment per subscriber by shifting the penetration rate from 30% to 60%, based on urban context and penetration/coverage ratio of 50%
• Figure 14 Estimated FCF based on fast deployment in the suburban context - GPON technology
• Figure 15 Estimated FCF based on gradual deployment in the suburban context - GPON technology
• Figure 16 Estimated FCF based on the urban context - GPON technology
• Figure 17 Estimated FCF for operators owning their own infrastructure in a competitive, urban context - GPON technology
• Figure 18 Estimated FCF for operators in a competitive, urban context and shared infrastructure - GPON technology
• Figure 19 Estimated FCF for wholesale operators in a competitive, urban context - GPON technology
• Figure 20 Estimated FCF for retail operators in a competitive, urban context - GPON technology
• Figure 21 Estimated FCF with doubled ARPU(1) in the urban context - GPON technology
• Figure 22 Estimated FCF for incumbent operators - GPON technology
• Figure 23 Estimated FCF for alternative operators - GPON technology
• Figure 24 Estimated FCF for retail operators - GPON technology
• Figure 25 Estimated FCF for incumbent operators - FTTN+VDSL technology
• Figure 26 Estimated FCF for alternative operators - FTTH+VDSL technology
• Figure 27 Estimated FCF for retail operators - FTTH+VDSL technology
• Figure 28 Basic structure of FTTN architecture
• Figure 29 Basic structure of FTTH architecture
• Figure 30 Active Ethernet technology
• Figure 31 Ethernet Point-To-Point technology (E-P2P)
• Figure 32 PON technology
• Figure 33 FTTH network topologies