Television 2020: The Web Migration

Abstract

This report provides a look at the future shape of the TV market, based on a forward-looking analysis that combines

• an in-depth diagnosis of the sector,
• an analysis of the macro-economic trends
• and a set of development scenarios, with figures for Europe and United States.

• Can we make a distinction between current upheavals and overriding trends in the sector?
• How to measure the issues tied to key innovations: new viewing habits, revolutionised access, changes in TV and video services, a redistribution of sources of financing?
• How will media companies emerge from the crisis?
• Is there a shift towards integrated pan-European conglo- merates?
• What are the most likely development scenarios for TV?
  • "My Video Web"
  • "Broadcasting as Usual"
  • "Community TV"

Market figures for each of the countries examined (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, the United States): TV reception modes, Viewing time, Advertising market, Pay-TV market

Methodology

This report provides development scenarios for the TV and video sector up to 2020, based on macro-economic scenarios that integrate hypotheses on the market environment, lifestyle and the networking individual, and by combining:

• analysis of the key development factors:usage, access, services, financing and market players
• construction of TV 2020 scenarios: IDATE shares its view of the expected development trajectory for each of the key issues. Their combination forms the basis of development scenarios for the TV sector as a whole.
• figures for the benchmark scenario: the scope of analysis includes developed countries, with figures for the benchmark scenario applying to the United States and Western Europe' s five main markets: Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the UK.

IDATE has identified 20 factors, broken down into 5 categories, which will shape the TV sector' s evolution. The combination of the expected development path for each factor allows us to establish exclusive scenarios - one of which IDATE has selected as the benchmark scenario, for which figures are provided. The impact and scope of these developments allow us to paint a detailed view of the future state of the television market, and to provide users with a set of benchmark figures, market data and national forecasts up to 2020.:

• Access
• 1. Managed networks and open networks
• 2. The digital home and devices

• Financing
• 3. Advertising market
• 4. Pay-TV
• 5. Public financing

• The players
• 6. Content providers
• 7. Telcos
• 8. Internet companies
• 9. CE manufacturers
• 10. Regulators

• Usage
• 11. TV' s role in leisure time
• 12. Time-shifted viewing
• 13. Piracy and free content
• 14. Development of social networks
• 15. Consumers as content producers

• Services
• 16. Picture quality
• 17. Services on demand
• 18. Enhanced TV
• 19. Mobile TV
• 20. New TV services' weight in the equation