Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
2. Methodology
3. The Scenarios
- 3.1. Three macro-economic scenarios
- 3.1.1. Key variables
- 3.1.2. The withdrawal scenario
- 3.1.3. The social networking scenario
- 3.1.4. The tribe scenario
- 3.2. TV scenario construction
- 3.2.1. Approach
- 3.2.2. Key factors, according to the three macro-economic scenarios
- Uses
- Access
- Services
- Financing
- Player strategies
- 3.3. TV 2020: three disruption scenarios
- 3.3.1. Scenario 1: "Broadcast as Usual"
- 3.3.2. Scenario 2: "My Video Web"
- 3.3.3. Scenario 3: "Community TV"
- 3.3.4. Figures for the benchmark scenarios
- Which benchmark scenario?
- Scenario figures
- Overall modelling results
- 3.4. Crisis caused by migration to the Web
4. Key Innovation Factors
- 4.1. A third phase in the TV market' s development
- 4.2. Key factors to the TV sector' s evolution
5. Key Innovation Factors: Consumption
- 5.1. TV viewership, 2000-2008
- Individual TV viewing on the rise
- A 2nd generation of general entertainment channels
- 5.2. Television' s role in people' s leisure time
- TV: most time devoted to ICT
- TV: a small part of households' ICT budget
- 5.3. Time-shifted viewing
- Audience moving away from live viewing
- Internet enabling time-shifted viewing
- 5.4. Piracy and free content
- 5.5. Role played by social networks
- 5.6. Consumers as content producers
- User-created content or User-distributed content?
6. Key Innovation Factors:Access
- 6.1. State of affairs: accessing TV
- 6.1.1. New video networks
- 6.1.2. Mobile video networks
- DVB-T & DVB-H, Wi-Fi & WiMAX, the IP chain
- 6.2. Integration into the digital home
- 6.2.1. New video devices
- 6.2.2. Three visions of the digital home
- The terminal-centric household: PC or TV
- The user-centric household
- The network-centric household: online or local
- 6.2.3. The shift to Open TV
- 6.2.4. Device + service bundles
7. Key Innovation Factors:Services
- 7.1. TV & Video services, 2000-2008
- TV channels: growth or consolidation?
- HD DVD: growth outlet?
- 7.2. Picture quality: what role for 3D?
- 7.3. Services on demand
- 7.3.1. Video on demand
- 7.3.2. Catch-up TV
- 7.4. Enhanced TV
- 7.5. Mobile services
- 7.6. Role of online video services
8. Key Innovation Factors:Financing
- 8.1. TV financing, 2000-2008
- TV' s share of advertising spending
- Pay-TV driving market growth
- 8.2. Advertising: competition & decreasing prices
- Changes to the Web on TV model
- Internet and advertising
- Key role of agencies and ad space sellers
- 8.3. Pay-TV
- Premium channels: high end, innovation
- Specialty channel packages
- Conflicts in the value chain
- 8.4. Public financing
9. Player Strategies
- 9.1. Initiatives from content providers
- Must-see vs. syndication
- TV channels' online strategies
- Premium video and back catalogue
- 9.2. Other players
- Associated documents
- Database & forecasts (Excel): France,
- Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, the United States
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