Printed, Organic & Flexible Electronics Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2009-2029

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

1. INTRODUCTION

• 1.2. Twenty year forecasts of unusual breadth
• 1.3. Terminology and definitions
• 1.4. Scope for printed electronics and electrics
• 1.5. There is a bigger picture
• 1.6. Printed electronics products today
  • 1.6.1. New technologies, more opportunity
  • 1.6.2. With or without a silicon chip
  • 1.6.3. Highest volume products with no silicon chip
  • 1.6.4. Printed electronics with silicon chips
  • 1.6.5. Electronic apparel
  • 1.6.6. Display and lighting
  • 1.6.7. Photovoltaic power by the mile
  • 1.6.8. Stretchable electronic products for sale
  • 1.6.9. A view from Toppan Forms
• 1.7. Displays are the main sector for now
• 1.8. Photovoltaics beyond conventional silicon are the second largest market
• 1.9. How printed electronics is being applied
• 1.10. Surprisingly poor progress with low cost electronics so far
• 1.11. Threat - silicon chips keep getting cheaper
• 1.12. Printed electronics for smart packaging
• 1.13. Driving forces for disposable electronics
• 1.14. Balance of reporting on printed and organic electronics
• 1.15. Inorganic patterning shows the way
• 1.16. Great uncertainty
• 1.17. Challenging conventional electronics
• 1.18. Flexible is a Big Market
• 1.19. Assumptions for our forecasts
• 1.20. Despite recession, finance for printed electronics is not drying up

2. LOGIC AND MEMORY

• 2.1. Logic and Memory Market Forecasts 2009-2029
  • 2.1.1. Logic and memory forecasts 2009-2019
• 2.2. Impact on silicon
• 2.3. Transistor design
  • 2.3.2. New TFT geometry
  • 2.3.3. Advantages of printed and thin film transistors and memory vs traditional silicon
  • 2.3.4. The main options for the printed semiconductor
  • 2.3.5. Benefits and applications envisaged for TFTCs in general
  • 2.3.6. Development path
  • 2.3.7. Obtaining higher frequency performance
  • 2.3.8. Breakthrough in printed inorganic performance in from Kovio
  • 2.3.9. Progress towards p-type metal oxide semiconductors
  • 2.3.10. Do organic transistors have a future?
  • 2.3.11. 3D printed silicon transistors - Japan
  • 2.3.12. Choice of printing technologies
  • 2.3.13. Company strategy and value chain
• 2.4. Memory
• 2.5. RFID
  • 2.5.1. Market for RFID
  • 2.5.2. Ultimate potential for highest volume RFID
  • 2.5.3. Penetration of chipless/printed RFID

3. DISPLAYS

• 3.1. Market drivers
• 3.2. OLEDs as displays for electronic products
  • 3.2.2. Developers of OLEDs
  • 3.2.3. Mobile phones and OLEDs
  • 3.2.4. Digital Cameras and OLEDs
  • 3.2.5. Audio/Visual players and OLEDs
  • 3.2.6. TV sets and OLEDs
  • 3.2.7. OLED market forecasts 2009-2029
  • 3.2.8. Impediments to OLED adoption
  • 3.2.9. Unmet technical needs for OLEDs
• 3.3. Electrophoretic
  • 3.3.2. Applications of E-paper displays
  • 3.3.3. The Killer Application
  • 3.3.4. Electrophoretic displays market forecasts 2009-2029
• 3.4. Electrochromic
  • 3.4.2. Electrochromic displays market forecasts 2009-2029
• 3.5. AC Electroluminescent
  • 3.5.2. Electroluminescent displays market forecasts 2009 2029
• 3.6. Other display technologies
  • 3.6.1. Thermochromic
  • 3.6.2. Electrowetting displays
  • 3.6.3. Electrochemical displays on paper
  • 3.6.4. Other displays market size 2009-2029

4. LIGHTING

• 4.1. Significance of lighting and challenges
• 4.2. Comparisons of lighting technologies
• 4.3. General illumination market
• 4.4. Lighting forecasts 2009-2029
• 4.5. Value Chain and examples of OLED lighting
• 4.6. AC electroluminescent lighting
• 4.7. LEDs

5. POWER: PHOTOVOLTAICS AND BATTERIES

• 5.1. Photovoltaics
  • 5.1.1. Thin film Photovoltaics
  • 5.1.2. Comparison of technologies
  • 5.1.3. Solar cell production by company
  • 5.1.4. Trends by territory
  • 5.1.5. Parameters for comparing Photovoltaic technologies
• 5.2. Photovoltaics Forecasts
  • 5.2.2. Photovoltaic subsidies - should more be given?
  • 5.2.3. The need for storage
  • 5.2.4. Installation of photovoltaics
  • 5.2.5. Hope for silicon photovoltaics to reach grid price parity
  • 5.2.6. Strategies of market entry for new, potentially cheaper technologies
• 5.3. Batteries
  • 5.3.1. Importance of laminar batteries
  • 5.3.2. Button batteries vs laminar batteries
  • 5.3.3. Choices of laminar battery
  • 5.3.4. Applications of laminar batteries
  • 5.3.5. Infinite Power Solutions
  • 5.3.6. Solicore, USA
  • 5.3.7. Power Paper
  • 5.3.8. Blue Spark
  • 5.3.9. VoltaFlex
  • 5.3.10. Enfucell
• 5.4. Printed batteries forecasts 2009-2029
  • 5.4.2. Laminar batteries - missing the big opportunity?
• 5.5. Fuel cells

6. SENSORS AND OTHER ELECTRONIC COMPONENTS

• 6.1. General situation and examples
• 6.2. Photodetector arrays
  • 6.2.1. Printed flexible scanners
• 6.3. Successes and failures
• 6.4. Sensor Forecasts 2009-2029

7. MARKET BY TERRITORY, COMPONENTS, MATERIALS, OPPORTUNITIES

• 7.1. Market by territory
  • 7.1.1. Number of active organisations globally in this field
  • 7.1.2. Geographical split 2009-2029
  • 7.1.3. Giant Corporations of the World and their progress with printed electronics
• 7.2. The total market opportunity by component
• 7.3. Organic versus Inorganic
• 7.4. Printed versus non printed electronics
• 7.5. Flexible/conformal versus rigid electronics
• 7.6. Market forecasts for materials 2009-2029
• 7.7. Impact of printed electronics on conventional markets
  • 7.7.2. Impact on end-use markets
  • 7.7.3. Potential markets
• 7.8. Printed electronics: fundraising, investors, list of companies
  • 7.8.1. Printed Electronics Commercial Fund Raising Activities
  • 7.8.2. Printed Electronics Government Funded Activities

8. UNMET NEEDS, OPPORTUNITIES AND PROGRESS

• 8.1. Statistics for materials running out
  • 8.1.1. Indium
  • 8.1.2. Rare Earths
  • 8.1.3. Escape Routes
  • 8.1.4. Selenium
  • 8.1.5. Quantum dots, carbon nanotubes, common compounds
  • 8.1.6. How many years are left?
  • 8.1.7. Investing in the metals that will be needed for photovoltaics
  • 8.1.8. Material supply and sustainability of thin film CIGS and CdTe Photovoltaics
• 8.2. Low temperature processes/curing
  • 8.2.1. New ink formulations
  • 8.2.2. Breakthrough in metal ink cure from Novacentrix: room temperature on cheap substrates
• 8.3. Backplane transistor arrays hold up AMOLED market penetration
• 8.4. Need for better flexible, transparent, low cost barriers
• 8.5. Lack of standardised benchmarking
• 8.6. Urgent need for creative product design

9. COMPANY PROFILES

• 9.1.1. ACREO
• 9.1.2. Asahi Kasei
• 9.1.3. Asahi Glass
• 9.1.4. BASF
• 9.1.5. DaiNippon Printing
• 9.1.6. Evonik
• 9.1.7. Fujifilm Dimatix
• 9.1.8. HC Starck
• 9.1.9. Hewlett Packard
• 9.1.10. Holst Centre
• 9.1.11. InkTec
• 9.1.12. Konarka
• 9.1.13. Kovio Inc
• 9.1.14. Merck Chemicals
• 9.1.15. National Information Society Agency
• 9.1.16. Optomec
• 9.1.17. ORFID
• 9.1.18. Organic ID
• 9.1.19. Philips
• 9.1.20. Plastic E Print
• 9.1.21. Plastic Logic
• 9.1.22. Plextronics
• 9.1.23. PolyIC
• 9.1.24. Samsung
• 9.1.25. Semiconductor Energy Laboratory
• 9.1.26. Seiko Epson
• 9.1.27. Soligie
• 9.1.28. Thin Film Electronics
• 9.1.29. Toppan Forms
• 9.1.30. Toppan Printing
• 9.1.31. University of Tokyo
• 9.1.32. Waseda University
• 9.1.33. Other players in this value chain

10 APPENDIX 1: MATRIX OF PRINTED ELECTRONICS SUPPLIERS AND ACTIVITIES

11 APPENDIX 2: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY

TABLES

• 1.2. End user markets relevant to printed electronics
• 1.3. Some of today' s disposable electronics and why inorganic technology is needed to make it more saleable and useful
• 1.4. Some of the technical constraints of printed electronics and the exciting recent history of breakthroughs that give credibility to more being overcome in the next few years
• 1.5. Primary assumptions of organic electronics in full production 2009 to 2029
• 2.1. Global market for printed electronics logic and memory 2009-2029 in billions of dollars, with % printed and % flexible
• 2.2. Scope for printed TFTCs to create new markets or replace silicon chips
• 2.3. Advantages of printed and thin film transistors and memory vs traditional silicon
• 2.4. Comparison of some of the main options for the semiconductors in printed and potentially printed transistors
• 2.5. Envisaged benefits of TFTCs in RFID and other low-cost applications when compared with envisaged silicon chips
• 2.6. Overall choices of semiconductor
• 2.7. Typical carrier mobility in different potential TFTC semiconductors (actual and envisaged) vs higher mobility silicon, not printable.
• 2.8. Objectives and challenges of organisations developing printed and potentially printed transistor and/ or memory circuits and/or their materials
• 2.9. Some of the small group of contestants for large capacity printed memory.
• 2.11. Total value of tags by application 2009-2019 (US Dollar Millions)
• 2.12. Chipless versus Chip RFID, in numbers of units (billions) (Chip includes Active RFID tags)
• 2.13. Market size of various chipless solutions, 2009-2019
• 3.1. Some new and established display technologies compared
• 3.2. Comparison of the features of various technologies for advertising and signage
• 3.3. Examples of OLED materials and displays investment until the beginning of 2009
• 3.4. Examples of companies developing OLEDs
• 3.5. Market forecasts for OLED panel displays 2009-2029
• 3.6. Advantages and disadvantages of electrophoretic displays
• 3.7. Comparison between OLEDs and E-Ink of various parameters
• 3.8. Electrophoretic displays market forecasts 2009-2029
• 3.9. Electrochromic displays market forecasts 2009-2029
• 3.10. Electroluminescent displays market forecasts 2009-2029
• 3.11. Other displays market size 2009-2029
• 4.1. Incandescent, fluorescent, inorganic LED and the potential performance of OLED lighting compared
• 4.2. Some relevant statistics in millions of units sold worldwide in 2008
• 4.3. Lighting forecasts 2009-2029
• 4.4. Sales of inorganic LED lighting 2002-2008 in billions of units
• 5.1. The leading photovoltaic technologies compared
• 5.2. Comparison of the power conversion technologies of different types of solar cell technologies
• 5.3. Efficiency and commercialization dates of laminar organic, CdTe and DSSC photovoltaics
• 5.4. Performance of various types of photovoltaic cell compared
• 5.5. Photovoltaics forecasts 2009-2029
• 5.6. Shapes of battery for small RFID tags advantages and disadvantages
• 5.7. The spectrum of choice of technologies for laminar batteries
• 5.8. Examples of potential sources of flexible thin film batteries
• 5.9. Some examples of marketing thrust for laminar batteries
• 5.10. Batteries forecasts 2009-2029
• 6.1. Examples of companies developing organic sensors and other components and their main emphasis
• 6.2. Sensor forecasts 2009-2029
• 7.1. The market for printed and potentially printed electronics by territory in $ billion
• 7.2. Examples of giant corporations intending to make the printed and potentially printed devices with the largest market potential, showing East Asia dominant.
• 7.3. Examples of giant corporations, making or intending to make materials for printed and potentially printed electronics
• 7.4. Most supported technology by number of organisations identified in North America, East Asia and Europe
• 7.5. Market forecast by component type for 2009-2029 in US $ billions, for printed and potentially printed electronics including organic, inorganic and composites
• 7.6. Market forecasts for 2029 $ Billions
• 7.7. Spend on organic versus inorganic materials 2009-2029
• 7.8. Split of material types by component
• 7.9. Market value $ billions of only printed electronics 2009-2029
• 7.10. Market value $ billions of only flexible/conformal electronics 2009-2029
• 7.11. Materials market forecasts 2009-2029
• 7.12. End user markets relevant to printed and potentially printed electronics
• 7.13. Examples of fundraising activities in printed electronics since the beginning of 2008
• 7.14. Examples of government funded programs for printed electronics
• 8.1. Time to run out for scarce elements used in printed electronics
• 8.2. Water vapour and oxygen transmission rates of various materials.
• 8.3. Requirements of barrier materials
• 9.1. Other players in the value chain

FIGURES

• 1.1. Market volume in Euro billions
• 1.2. Smart iontophoretic skin patches
• 1.3. Esquire magazine with animated display September 2008
• 1.4. Plastic Logic E-reader
• 1.5. T-equaliser animated t-shirt
• 1.6. XEL-1 by SONY
• 1.7. Active Matrix OLED Fab ramp-up in 2006/07 - most in East Asia
• 1.8. How printed electronics is being applied to products
• 1.9. Printed Electronics Applications
• 1.10. Typical price breaks for high volume electronics and examples of potential advances.
• 2.1. Traditional geometry for a field effect transistor
• 2.2. Transistors - first significant commercial product in 2009
• 2.3. Performance of Kovio' s ink versus others by mobility
• 2.4. Road map
• 2.5. Transparent Zinc Oxide transistors
• 2.6. 3D printing of silicon from Seiko Epson
• 2.7. Options for high speed, low-cost printing of TFTCs
• 2.8. Value chain for TFTCs and examples of migration of activity for players
• 2.9. An all-organic permanent memory transistor
• 2.10. TFE memory compared with the much more complex DRAM in silicon
• 2.11. Structure of TFE memory
• 2.12. TFE priorities for commercialisation of mega memory
• 2.13. Prototype 13.56 MHz RFID smart labels from reel to reel production of organic TFTCs by PolyIC
• 2.14. Potential, in billions yearly, for global sales of RFID labels and circuits printed directly onto products or packaging. Item level is shown in red. These are examples.
• 2.15. Chipless versus Chip RFID, in numbers of units (billions)
• 3.1. Basic structure of an OLED
• 3.2. Samsung OLED television, Philips OLED shaver and Eastman Kodak OLED camera.
• 3.3. Concept of apparel that illuminates with flexible OLED displays
• 3.4. LEP process flow
• 3.5. An OLED display from Samsung which folds in the middle. More than half of Samsung' s stand was previewing OLED displays.
• 3.6. A 4" flexible AM OLED from LG on stainless steel.
• 3.7. A Sony OLED display illustrating its thinness
• 3.8. WOLED displays from Samsung
• 3.9. Principle of operation of electrophoretic displays
• 3.10. E-paper displays on a magazine sold in the US in October 2008
• 3.11. Retail Shelf Edge Labels from UPM
• 3.12. Secondary display on a cell phone
• 3.13. Amazon Kindle 2, launched in the US in February 2009
• 3.14. Electrophoretic display on a commercially sold financial card
• 3.15. A Polymer Vision display
• 3.16. Electrochromic display on a Valentine' s card sold by Marks and Spencer in the UK in 2004 and electrochromic display with drive circuits in a laminate for smart cards..
• 3.17. Boardroom lighting in Alcatel France that switches to various modes
• 3.18. EL decor, signage and instrumentation in the new Jaguar concept model
• 3.19. Animated EL artwork in a two meter suspended ball for event lighting
• 3.20. Educational AC electroluminescent floor covering
• 3.21. Coyopa rum with four segment sequentially switched pictures
• 3.22. TV controller
• 3.23. Switched image on face of Fossil watch
• 3.24. Car instrument illumination by electroluminescent display
• 3.25. Duracell battery tester
• 3.26. Interactive game on a beer package by VTT Technologies in Finland
• 3.27. The dollhouse. When energy is added to the system the colour of the wallpaper changes and a picture appears on the wall
• 3.28. Two state electrolytic display on paper
• 3.29. Seven segment display printed with bi-stable inks
• 4.1. Impact of the various forms of lighting, with the overlap showing degree of competition
• 4.2. Value chain for manufacture of OLEDs for lighting and signage
• 4.3. The space saving of OLED lights and their exceptional colour tunability
• 4.4. Example of OLED Lighting
• 4.5. Motion lighting concept
• 5.1. Some of the overlapping requirements for photovoltaics
• 5.2. Progress of confirmed research-scale photovoltaic device efficiencies, under AM 1.5 simulated solar illumination, for a variety of technologies
• 5.3. Construction of a traditional bulk heterojunction organic photovoltaic cell
• 5.4. Module stack for photovoltaics
• 5.5. The 2250 organisations tackling printed and potentially printed devices and their materials
• 5.6. Only East Asia has many giant companies involved in non-silicon photovoltaic devices
• 5.7. Power PlasticTM Advantage - High Energy Yield
• 5.8. Infinite Power Solutions batteries.
• 5.9. Power Paper printed battery
• 5.10. Reel to reel screen printing of Blue Spark batteries
• 5.11. VoltaFlex organic polymer lithium battery
• 5.12. Estee Lauder smart skin patch which delivers cosmetics using the iontophoretic effect
• 6.1. The main options for organic sensors
• 6.2. Plastic film scanner with no moving parts
• 7.1. Organisations involved in printed and potentially printed electronics across the world, by type of interest
• 7.2. Primary devices being developed
• 7.3. Market by Territory 2009 - 2019
• 7.4. Number of printed electronics products by country
• 7.5. Number of organisations active in printed electronics by country in Europe
• 7.6. Display project distribution in East Asia: OLED left, electroluminescent center, electrophoretic right.
• 7.7. Number of projects by device type in North America
• 7.8. Market forecast by component type for 2009-2029 in US $ billions, for printed and potentially printed electronics including organic, inorganic and composites
• 7.9. Market forecasts for 2029
• 7.10. Spend on organic versus inorganic materials 2009-2019
• 7.11. Market value $ billions of only printed electronics 2009-2019
• 7.12. Market value $ billions of only flexible/conformal electronics 2009-2019
• 7.13. Relative investments from the key areas of printed electronics development
• 7.14. Materials market forecast 2009-2019
• 7.15. Examples of organic and inorganic electronics and electrics potentially tackling different technologies and applications.
• 7.16. The potential annual global sales of each type by 2019 in US$ billions
• 7.17. Some of the potential markets
• 8.1. Indium price 2001-2006
• 8.2. Typical SEM images of CU flake C1 6000F. Copper flake
• 8.3. Thermal requirements and capabilities of different materials
• 8.4. The NovaCentrix process
• 8.5. Pre and post sintering
• 8.6. Current options and challenges for backplane TFTs
• 8.7. Schematic diagrams for encapsulated structures a) conventional b) laminated c) deposited in situ
• 8.8. Scanning electron micrograph image of a barrier film cross section6
• 8.9. Progress of confirmed research-scale photovoltaic device efficiencies, under AM 1.5 simulated solar illumination, for a variety of technologies
• 8.10. Innovative product designers/ sellers are in short supply
• 9.1. Semiconductor development at Evonik
• 9.2. Target range for mobility and processing temperature of semiconductors.
• 9.3. Transfer characteristics of gen3 semiconductor system
• 9.4. Current efficiency of a Novaled PIN OLEDTM stack on an inkjet printed, transparent conductive ITO anode.
• 9.5. Inks developed by InkTec
• 9.6. InkTec Printing methods
• 9.7. Ubiquitous Sensor Networks (USN)
• 9.8. Simple sensors used in initial trials
• 9.9. USN services and applications
• 9.10. Left is diode logic OR gate and the right is a bridge rectifier
• 9.11. Micrograph of an SSD array and the 110 GHz microwave measurement setup
• 9.12. A prototype of the Plastic Logic E-reader
• 9.13. A prototype of the Plastic Logic E-reader
• 9.14. A prototype of the Plastic Logic E-reader
• 9.15. Samsung OLED display
• 9.16. Size of ink droplet volume versus it' s radius
• 9.17. Printed Flexible Circuits from Soligie
• 9.18. Capabilities of Soligie
• 9.19. Printed electronics from Soligie
• 9.20. Printing presses used for printing electronics at Soligie
• 9.21. An e-label from Soligie
• 9.22. A flexible display sample
• 9.23. Printed electronics samples
• 9.24. New electronics targets physical space
• 9.25. Large-area electronics
• 9.26. 32" pressure sensor matrix
• 9.27. Wireless power transmission sheet
• 9.28. Device structure
• 9.29. Organic transistors
• 9.30. Organic transistor 3D ICs
• 9.31. Scanner with no moving parts
• 9.32. Scanning a wine bottle label
• 9.33. Stretchable electronics
• 9.34. Flexible battery that charges in one minute