Printed and Chipless RFID Forecasts, Technologies & Players 2009-2019

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

1. INTRODUCTION

• 1.1. Roadmap for RFID 2008-2018
• 1.2. What are printed and chipless RFID tags?
• 1.3. Why are they needed in supply chains?
  • 1.3.1. Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG)
  • 1.3.2. Pharmaceuticals
• 1.4. Where else will chipless RFID be needed?
  • 1.4.1. Ubiquitous Sensor Networks
  • 1.4.2. Self adjusting use by date
  • 1.4.3. Assets
  • 1.4.4. Laundry and rented garments
  • 1.4.5. Books at manufacture
  • 1.4.6. Postal items
  • 1.4.7. Conveyances, logistics, traffic management
• 1.5. Silicon chips and EPCglobal
  • 1.5.1. Shortcomings of silicon chip RFID
  • 1.5.2. Shortcomings of Gen2 EPC - universality by tag complexity
  • 1.5.3. Robustness of the layered approach backed by EPCglobal
  • 1.5.4. Implications
• 1.6. Constraints on market growth
  • 1.6.1. Impediments to highest volume RFID
• 1.7. Ultimate potential
  • 1.7.1. Potential for different applications
  • 1.7.2. Tag price sensitivity at highest volumes
  • 1.7.3. Price sensitivity curve for RFID (adoption curve)

2. PRINTED AND CHIPLESS RFID TECHNOLOGIES

• 2.2. Comparison - first generation
• 2.3. Commercial successes
  • 2.3.1. Acoustomagnetic tags - error prevention
  • 2.3.2. SAW tags - X-CYTE, MicroDesign, iRay Technologies, Thoronics, CTR
• 2.4. HID Barkhausen cards - secure access
• 2.5. Lessons from the limited success or failure of other approaches
• 2.6. Electromagnetic - Flying Null, Link-Sure, Confirm Technologies, REMOSO, Holotag, Zebra Technologies, Scipher TSSI, MXT, Fuji Electric, Unitika
• 2.7. Swept RF LC array - Miyake, Lintec, CWOSRFID, Navitas, Checkpoint, Tagsense, RFCode

3. SECOND GENERATION CHIPLESS RFID - POTENTIALLY OPEN SYSTEMS

• 3.1. The main contenders compared
• 3.2. Electromagnetic conductive ink stripe RFID - Mreal, VTT, Panipol, ACREO, Somark Innovations, Menippos, Printed Systems
  • 3.2.1. New ink stripe format
  • 3.2.2. Potential advantages and disadvantages vs silicon
  • 3.2.3. Market thrust
  • 3.2.4. Technical development
  • 3.2.5. The Somark Innovations product new in 2006
  • 3.2.6. The Mreal/ VTT Technologies/ Panipol product
  • 3.2.7. ACREO
  • 3.2.8. Menippos and Printed Systems GmbH
• 3.3. Printed radar arrays, InkSure and Vubiq
  • 3.3.1. Inksure
  • 3.3.2. Vubiq
• 3.4. Surface Acoustic Wave - RFSAW, Thoronics
  • 3.4.1. Potential advantages and disadvantages vs silicon
  • 3.4.2. Market thrust
  • 3.4.3. Technical development
  • 3.4.4. SAW Standards EPCglobal
  • 3.4.5. Companies seeking SAW open systems - RFSAW, IBM Global Services, Thoronics
  • 3.4.6. IBM Global Services success in 2006/2007
  • 3.4.7. RFID location with passive tags
  • 3.4.8. Case study: Highway non-stop tolling USA - RFSAW
• 3.5. Thin Film Transistor Circuits (TFTCs)
• 3.6. Other
  • 3.6.1. How to Eat RFID
• 3.7. Lowest cost antenna design
  • 3.7.1. Choice of electrodes and interconnects

4. THIN FILM TRANSISTOR CIRCUITS (TFTCS)

• 4.1. Potential advantages and disadvantages vs silicon
  • 4.1.1. TFTCs best suited for non-RFID applications in the short term?
  • 4.1.2. A key limitation is frequency
  • 4.1.3. Printed TFTC RFID cannot tackle UHF and microwave?
  • 4.1.4. Low cost not guaranteed
• 4.2. Market thrust and technical progress
• 4.3. Opportunities for passive TFTC RFID labels
  • 4.3.1. RFID printed directly on products and packaging
• 4.4. Opportunities for active TFTC RFID
• 4.5. TFTC value chain - companies change position
• 4.6. Technical development - geometry, carrier mobility, substrate
  • 4.6.1. Transistor geometry or mobility?
  • 4.6.2. The compromises in choosing substrates
• 4.7. Printed memory for RFID- HP, Ricoh, Matsushita, Thin Film Electronics, Motorola, Fuji Film and others
• 4.8. Thirty Three TFTC players compared - market thrust
• 4.9. Why TFTCs will be the biggest breakthrough in electronic smart packaging
• 4.10. Thin film silicon vs organics or inorganics
  • 4.10.1. First came thin film silicon
  • 4.10.2. Organic semiconductors - two choices
  • 4.10.3. PolyIC developments
  • 4.10.4. Dai Nippon Printing semiconductor development
  • 4.10.5. Power conservation - CMOS
  • 4.10.6. Progress towards flexible/biodegradable substrates for organic TFTs
• 4.11. Wild card - inorganic semiconductors
• 4.12. Game-changing breakthrough from Kovio in 2007

5. DISPLAYS AND SENSORS FOR CHIPLESS RFID

• 5.1. Choice of displays
• 5.2. Choice of sensors

6. MARKETS FOR CHIPLESS RFID 2008-2018

• 6.1. Historical sales of chipless tags
  • 6.1.2. Cumulative sales chip vs chipless
• 6.2. Chipless share of RFID market by numbers 2008-2018
• 6.3. Proportion for CPG 2008-2018
• 6.4. Chipless RFID by technology 2008-2018
• 6.5. Unit price trends by chipless technology 2008-2018
• 6.6. Chipless share of total RFID market value 2008-2018
• 6.7. Chipless vs chip share of total RFID market by value 2008-2018
• 6.8. RFID market by system component 2008-2018
• 6.9. RFID market by location of tag 2008-2018 and chipless targets
• 6.10. Move of markets to East Asia 2008, 2013, 2018
• 6.11. Market for EPC and other interrogators 2008-2018
• 6.12. Ultra low cost RFID labels - market size
• 6.13. RFID printed directly onto products and packaging - market size
• 6.14. Low cost active RFID - market size
• 6.15. Radiation tolerant RFID - market size
• 6.16. Fault tolerant RFID - market size
• 6.17. Ultra thin low cost RFID - market size
• 6.18. Ubiquitous Sensor Networks - market size
• 6.19. Real Time Locating Systems (RTLS) - market size

7. TIMELINES FOR PRINTED AND CHIPLESS RFID MARKET PENETRATION

• 7.1. Timelines for human-related and product tagging
• 7.2. Timelines for developments in second generation chipless RFID
• 7.3. Timeline for printed RFID
• 7.4. Timeline for printed organic electronics
• 7.5. Timeline for direct printing of chipless RFID onto products and packaging

8. SUPPLIER AND DEVELOPER PROFILES

• 8.1. RFSAW USA
• 8.2. IBM USA
• 8.3. ACREO Sweden
• 8.4. M-real Sweden
• 8.5. VTT Technology Finland
• 8.6. Panipol Finland
• 8.7. Inksure
• 8.8. VubiQ
• 8.9. PolyIC and Siemens Germany
• 8.10. OrganicID USA
• 8.11. 3M USA
• 8.12. Xerox/ PARC USA/ Canada
• 8.13. Plastic Logic UK
• 8.14. Toppan Printing Japan
• 8.15. Dai Nippon Printing Japan
• 8.16. Kovio USA

APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS

APPENDIX 2: PRINCIPLES OF OPERATION OF FIRST GENERATION CHIPLESS RFID

APPENDIX 3: THE ASTRAZENECA - SCIENTIFIC GENERICS SUCCESS

APPENDIX 4: GLOSSARY

TABLES

• 1.1. Results achieved in studies of both cost reduction and increase in sales achievable with item level RFID in the supermarket.
• 1.2. The main impediments to highest volume RFID
• 1.3. Ultimate potential annual global sales by 2020 of some of the most promising tagged things that have potential for up to one billion tags used yearly.
• 1.4. Ultimate potential annual global sales by 2020 for some of the most promising tagged things with potential of over one billion tags yearly.
• 2.1. Ten different types of chipless RFID technology
• 2.2. The ten types of first generation chipless RFID technologies compared.
• 2.3. Advantages and disadvantages of RFSAW devices
• 3.1. Comparison of the main contenders
• 3.2. Detailed comparison of second generation chipless options
• 3.3. Comparison of performance of conductive layers for RFID antennas in ohms per square meter
• 4.1. Envisaged benefits of TFTCs in RFID and other low-cost applications when compared with envisaged silicon chips
• 4.2. Typical features demanded of high volume RFID tags
• 4.3. Probable value split of the global passive RFID market, by value and numbers as a function of frequency, in 2012
• 4.4. Typical carrier mobility in different TFTC semiconductors (actual and envisaged). Single crystal silicon may have a figure of up to 1,000 cm2/vs but it is not currently envisaged as a TFTC material
• 4.5. Comparison of 33 TFTC players
• 4.6. Thirty three TFTC developers compared - technologies
• 4.7. Benefits of the best TFTCs versus very small silicon chips
• 5.1. Qualities of the various display options for chipless RFID
• 6.1. Historical sales of chipless RFID tags
• 6.2. Cumulative global sales of RFID tags chip vs chipless to end of 2006 in millions
• 6.3. Deliveries of chipless tags to date by company
• 6.4. Overall global RFID market by numbers 2008-2018 with chipless and chip share
• 6.5. Split between chipless tags sold globally for CPG and those for other purposes 2008-2018 in billions
• 6.6. Sales in billions of the main types of chipless tag 2008-2018
• 6.7. Unit price in cents of the various types of chipless RFID 2008-2018
• 6.8. Market value of global sales of chipless tags by technology in billions of dollars 2008-2018
• 6.9. Chipless and chip share of the total global market for RFID tags 2008-2018
• 6.10. Total global RFID market 2008-2018 by value of tags, interrogators and other
• 6.11. Number (in millions) of tags by application 2008-2018
• 6.12. Average tag price per application in US cents 2008-2018
• 6.13. Value of tags by application 2008-2018 (US Dollar Millions)
• 6.14. Total spend on RFID systems, service and tags 2008, 2013, 2018 by territory
• 6.15. Market for RFID interrogators by application, US dollars billions
• 7.1. Timelines for developments in second generation chipless RFID

FIGURES

• 1.1. Malaysian project for Ubiquitous Sensor Networks etc
• 1.2. What is USN in Korea?
• 1.3. Korean program towards ubiquitous sensor enabled RFID 2004 to 2010 as presented at the IDTechEx conference Smart Labels Asia in Tokyo
• 1.4. The attributes of the main types of chipless tag compared with silicon chip alternatives
• 1.5. Layers of logistic units
• 1.7. The adoption curve 2004-2018
• 1.9. The overall price-volume sensitivity envelope
• 2.1. Principle of a SAW tag
• 2.2. SAW tag system
• 2.3. CTR heavy duty SAW RFID tag
• 3.1. Layout of the ACREO ink stripe RFID
• 3.2. Main Features of the M-real/ VTT technology HidE chipless RFID and IDTechEx portrayal of a typical format for conductive ink stripes on this product and the ACREO product about 1centimeter by six centimeters.
• 3.3. HidE hidden Electronic Product Code production roadmap
• 3.4. Potential applications of HidE ink stripe RFID
• 3.5. Strengths and weaknesses of HidE chipless RFID
• 3.6. Planned miniature SAW tag with 2.45 GHz dipole antenna
• 3.7. Options for interconnect, antenna and electrode materials to make high speed transistor circuits
• 4.1. Slides from PolyIC show their progress with printed TFTCs for RFID.
• 4.2. Requirements of organic electronics to the process
• 4.3. Requirements of organic electronics to the substrate
• 4.4. Comparison of PET - Surfaces
• 4.5. Possible film substrates
• 4.6. More possible film substrates
• 4.7. Paper as a substrate for organic electronics
• 4.8. Value chain for TFTCs and examples of migration of activity for players
• 4.9. Coplanar electrode thin film transistor
• 4.10. Options for semiconductor materials to make TFTCs on low-cost flexible substrates. Shown as a function of cost and frequency
• 4.11. Options for semiconductor materials to make TFTs on low-cost flexible substrates. Shown as a function of cost and frequency.
• 4.12. Options for high speed, low-cost printing of TFTCs
• 4.13. Evolving level of difficulty of substrates in creating low-cost TFTCs
• 4.14. Experimental PolyIC (formerly Siemens) 32-bit RFID smart label using printed polymer semiconductors
• 4.15. Basic setup and issues
• 4.16. Chemical structure of polymer FET
• 4.17. PolyIC integrated rectifier
• 4.18. Development of continuous printing methods by PolyIC
• 4.19. Printable organic semiconductors - the compromise.
• 4.20. Carrier transport in liquid crystal
• 4.21. Structural choices for printable semiconductors researched by DNP
• 4.22. Molecular design choices by DNP
• 4.23. How LC-OSC can be a good compromise.
• 5.1. Experimental printed flexible polymer OLED by Dai Nippon Printing
• 6.1. An AstraZeneca syringe with chipless RFID tag
• 6.2. Dropping prices for RFID tags
• 6.3. Projections for Real Time Locating Systems 2007-2010
• 7.1. Evolution of RFID markets by applicational sector
• 7.2. PolyIC roadmap for printed RFID
• 7.3. PolyIC roadmap to success for printed organic RFID
• 7.4. DNP roadmap for plastic electronics