RFID Forecasts, Players and Opportunities 2009-2019

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

1. INTRODUCTION

• 1.1. Definitions
  • 1.1.1. RFID
  • 1.1.2. Chipless/printed RFID
  • 1.1.3. Passive and active RFID
• 1.2. Tags have different shapes
• 1.3. The RFID value chain
• 1.4. Where tags are placed
• 1.5. The show so far - 1945 to 2009
  • 1.5.1. Cumulative sales by applicational category
  • 1.5.2. Cumulative sales active vs passive
  • 1.5.3. Cumulative sales chip vs chipless
  • 1.5.4. Dominant RFID chip suppliers
• 1.6. Historic RFID tag sales 2005 to 2008
  • 1.6.1. Progress in 2005
  • 1.6.2. Progress in 2006
  • 1.6.3. Progress in 2007
  • 1.6.4. Progress in 2008
• 1.7. Ultimate potential
  • 1.7.1. Potential for different applications
  • 1.7.2. Tag price sensitivity at highest volumes
  • 1.7.3. Price sensitivity curve for RFID (adoption curve)
• 1.8. Legal push
• 1.9. Demand pull
• 1.10. Constraints on market growth
  • 1.10.2. Impediments to highest volume RFID

2. MARKET BY SPECIFICATION AND EPC RFID

• 2.1. League table of RFID specifications
• 2.2. EPCglobal
• 2.3. Progress with EPC adoption so far
• 2.4. Forecasting EPC adoption
• 2.5. Choice of tagging package or product
• 2.6. EPC successes
• 2.7. EPC versus Non EPC
• 2.8. Near Field Communication (NFC)

3. MARKETS BY COUNTRY

• 3.1. Number of RFID projects by country
• 3.2. Ongoing importance of the US market
• 3.3. RFID across four continents
• 3.4. Projected sales of RFID tags by territory
• 3.5. Increasing importance of the East Asian market

4. MARKETS FOR PASSIVE RFID

• 4.1. Passive vs active
• 4.2. Sub categories of passive tag
• 4.3. Project cost, size and payback
• 4.4. Passive market by applicational sector
• 4.5. The main things that are passive tagged
• 4.6. Passive RFID market by range
• 4.7. RFID technologies by range and cost
• 4.8. New passive technologies create new markets
  • 4.8.1. Forecast for chip vs chipless/printed tags
  • 4.8.2. Latest progress with printed RFID
  • 4.8.3. Price advantage the main driver of market gain

5. MARKETS FOR ACTIVE RFID

• 5.1. Sub categories of active tag
• 5.2. Project cost, size and payback
• 5.3. Active market by applicational sector
• 5.4. The main things that are active tagged
• 5.5. Active RFID market by range
• 5.6. Active RFID market by battery type
  • 5.6.1. Energy Harvesting and RFID
• 5.7. New active technologies create new markets
  • 5.7.1. Hand-held homing devices
  • 5.7.2. New markets - Smart Active Labels
  • 5.7.3. An example of massive ' niches'
• 5.8. Technologies facilitating growth
• 5.9. Forecasts for active RFID tags
• 5.10. Forecasts for systems
  • 5.10.1. The spend on active RFID systems
  • 5.10.2. Active RFID players

6. MARKET FOR RFID INTERROGATORS

• 6.1. Overview
• 6.2. Interrogator numbers
• 6.3. Interrogator price
• 6.4. Interrogator market value

7. MARKETS BY FREQUENCY

• 7.1. Spread of tag sales
• 7.2. Passive frequencies
  • 7.2.1. Segmenting of the passive UHF market
• 7.3. Active frequencies

8. MARKET VALUE BY POSITION IN VALUE CHAIN: INTERROGATORS, SOFTWARE, SERVICES ETC

• 8.1. Market split by position
• 8.2. Markets for labels, cards and tickets
• 8.3. Forecasts by tag structures
• 8.4. NFC, smart card and ticket projections
• 8.5. Markets by location of tag - item, pallet/case, etc
  • 8.5.1. Item, pallet/case tagging vs smart cards
• 8.6. Forecasts 2009-2019
  • 8.6.2. Rationale behind each forecast
  • 8.6.3. Ubiquitous Sensor Networks and other possibilities - Malaysia and Korea timelines to 2010

9. MARKET BY APPLICATIONAL SECTOR

• 9.1. Prevalence of RFID projects for each applicational sector
• 9.2. Future trend of projects for each applicational sector
• 9.3. Market size of tags by applicational category
• 9.4. Current and future forms of payback by applicational sector
• 9.5. Healthcare and pharmaceuticals
• 9.6. Postal and courier services
• 9.7. Retail and Consumer Packaged Goods
• 9.8. Military and federal
• 9.9. Airlines and Airports
• 9.10. Libraries
• 9.11. Secure access
• 9.12. Laundry/ rented textiles
  • 9.12.1. State of the art
  • 9.12.2. Payback
  • 9.12.3. Technical requirements and trends
  • 9.12.4. Contrast in store apparel tagging
  • 9.12.5. Laundry tag suppliers
  • 9.12.6. Addressable market
  • 9.12.7. Forecasts

10. LARGEST ORDERS, PRODUCTS, PLAYERS AND OVERSUPPLY/ UNDERSUPPLY: MILESTONES IN FUTURE

• 10.1. Dynamics of the RFID value chain
• 10.2. Largest orders, best selling products, dominant suppliers in future
  • 10.2.1. Largest suppliers of chips
  • 10.2.2. Largest suppliers of tags, inlets, straps and detailed value chain for high volume
  • 10.2.3. Largest suppliers of software and services
• 10.3. Sectors potentially oversupplied or undersupplied
  • 10.3.1. Production capacity for tags
  • 10.3.2. Over and undersupply along the value chain 2009-2019
• 10.4. Milestones and timelines 2007-2020
  • 10.4.1. Milestones 2007-2020

APPENDIX

• APPENDIX 1: RFID SOLUTION PROVIDERS
• APPENDIX 2: EPCGLOBAL AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS
• APPENDIX 3: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS
• APPENDIX 4: GLOSSARY

TABLES

• 1.1. Largest suppliers to date
• 1.2. Where RFID tags are placed - categories used
• 1.3. Cumulative global sales of RFID tags by applicational category by the end of 2008 in millions
• 1.4. The cumulative global sales of RFID tags active vs passive in millions
• 1.5. Cumulative global sales of RFID tags chip vs chipless to end of 2008 in millions
• 1.6. Deliveries of chipless/printed tags to date by company
• 1.7. The dominant RFID tag and chip suppliers to start of 2009
• 1.8. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2005
• 1.9. Value of RFID active tag market in 2005
• 1.10. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2006
• 1.11. Value of RFID active tag market in 2006
• 1.12. Value Chain 2006
• 1.13. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2007
• 1.14. Value of RFID active tag market in 2007
• 1.15. Value Chain 2007
• 1.16. Value of RFID passive tag market in 2008
• 1.17. Value of RFID active tag market in 2008
• 1.18. Value Chain 2008
• 1.19. Ultimate potential annual global sales of some of the most promising tagged things that have potential for up to one billion tags used yearly.
• 1.20. Ultimate potential annual global sales for some of the most promising tagged things with potential of over one billion tags yearly.
• 1.21. Examples of laws and mandates encouraging RFID
• 1.22. Costs per annum for barcodes
• 1.23. The main impediments to highest volume RFID
• 2.1. The pecking order of RFID specifications by RFID tag expenditure in 2009
• 2.2. Reasons why an organization may want to use EPC
• 2.3. Reasons why an organization may wish not to use EPC
• 2.4. When industries may adopt EPC RFID in at least hundreds of millions yearly. Estimates by IDTechEx
• 2.5. Market for EPC related RFID only - tags, readers, middleware, services etc, in US dollars billions
• 2.6. Comparison of NFC enabled devices and contactless smart cards.
• 3.1. Largest number of RFID case studies by application and continent
• 3.2. Largest number of RFID case studies by tag format and continent
• 3.3. Largest number of RFID case studies by tag location and continent
• 3.4. Largest number of RFID case studies by frequency and continent
• 3.5. Number of tags in billions by territory 2009, 2014, 2019
• 3.6. Percentage share of numbers of tags by territory 2009, 2014, 2019
• 3.7. Value, in billions of dollars, of systems/ services/ tags by territory 2009, 2014, 2019
• 3.8. Percentage share of value of systems/ services/ tags by territory 2009, 2014, 2019
• 3.9. Leading markets by country for RFID in billions of dollars, systems including tags
• 3.10. Value $ billions of total RFID market excluding cards 2009, 2014, 2019
• 3.11. Percentage value $ billions of total RFID market excluding cards 2009, 2014, 2019
• 4.1. Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by number billions
• 4.2. Global market for active vs passive RFID tags by average tag price in cents
• 4.3. Global market for active vs passive RFID tags in billions of dollars
• 4.4. Projected tag assembly costs according to The Auto ID Center
• 4.5. Historical sales of chipless RFID tags
• 4.6. Chipless percentage share of the overall RFID market by numbers 2009 to 2019. Projection by IDTechEx
• 4.7. Chipless share of the overall RFID market by numbers 2009 to 2019. Projection by IDTechEx
• 5.1. Comparison of some of the typical features of passive vs active RFID
• 5.2. Unit price of expensive vs low cost tags for active RFID 2008
• 5.3. Examples of overall spend vs tag spend for some large RFID projects so far
• 5.4. Main things tagged with active RFID tags in terms of number of projects in the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase or numbers used
• 5.5. Active RFID in the prison and parole service
• 5.6. Global potential annually for active RFID systems plus tags in the prison and parole service
• 5.7. Number (in millions) of active tags by application 2009-2019
• 5.8. Average active tag price per application in US cents 2009-2019
• 5.9. Value of active tags by application 2009-2019 (US Dollar Millions)
• 5.10. Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems excluding tags, for vehicle clickers, SALs and other applications 2009-2019 in millions of dollars
• 5.11. Forecast for the value of global sales of RFID systems including tags, for vehicle clickers, SALs and other applications 2009-2019 in millions of dollars
• 5.12. Sectors, locations and application examples of Active RFID players
• 6.1. RFID enabled cellphones worldwide - 2009, 2014, 2019
• 6.2. Market for RFID interrogators by application, number millions
• 6.3. Market for RFID interrogators by application, reader price US dollars
• 6.4. Market for RFID interrogators by application, US dollars billions
• 7.1. The spread of tag numbers by frequency to the start of 2009
• 7.2. The spread of tag numbers by frequency forecast for 2009
• 7.3. The spread of tag numbers by frequency forecast for 2014
• 7.4. The spread of tag sales % by frequency forecast for 2019
• 7.5. Future favourite frequencies by format and application
• 7.6. Active tags by frequency in 2009
• 7.7. Active tags by frequency in 2019
• 8.1. The split of the market by position in the value chain by percentage share
• 8.2. The split of the market by position in the value chain by value
• 8.3. Breakdown of the tag market by number of tags in millions
• 8.4. Breakdown of the tag market percentage of tags by numbers
• 8.5. Breakdown of the tag market value of tags by form by value ($ billion)
• 8.6. Breakdown of the tag market percentage of tags by value
• 8.7. Total RFID market value ($ billion)
• 8.8. Total RFID market percentage of tags by value
• 8.9. The good and the bad of the different proposed locations of NFC functionality in mobile phones
• 8.10. Examples of NFC location in phones used in various trials and limited rollouts at the end of 2008
• 8.11. Ticket number and unit value 2009-2019
• 8.12. Examples of leading transport SVC card schemes
• 8.13. Some of the largest card and ticket schemes in China
• 8.14. IDTechEx estimates of the RFID sales of some of the leaders in RFID cards and tickets, their parts and their systems in 2008
• 8.15. Volume sales of tags by application 2009-2019
• 8.16. Average tag price per application in US cents 2008-2018
• 8.17. Value of tags by application 2008-2018 (US Dollar Million)
• 8.18. Rationale behind item and pallet / case forecasts
• 8.19. Some possibly substantial new locations for RFID tags
• 9.1. IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase May 2009 -number of cases by applicational sector
• 9.2. Future trends for the applicational sectors with the most projects
• 9.3. RFID Tag projections by market 2009-2019
• 9.4. Benefits most commonly sought and payback most commonly claimed by sector.
• 10.1. Examples of some of the larger RFID suppliers and their estimated sales and profit status
• 10.2. Examples of fundraising in 2005-2009 by 28 RFID businesses
• 10.3. Cumulative RFID tag sales by number to beginning of 2009
• 10.4. Examples of dominant companies in the chip to label value chain in 2008
• 10.5. The trend for RFID software and services in 2009 and 2019
• 10.6. Some of the companies offering and preparing to offer RFID tags in very high volumes and their current status.
• 10.7. Parts of the RFID value chain that may be over or undersupplied 2009-2019
• 10.8. Milestones 2007-2020

FIGURES

• 1.1. The RFID value chain
• 1.2. An AstraZeneca syringe with chipless RFID tag
• 1.3. Technologies appropriate to the different levels of tag cost and volume.
• 1.4. The adoption curve 2004-2020
• 1.5. The overall price-volume sensitivity envelope
• 1.6. RFID from cradle to grave
• 1.7. Marks & Spencer reusable plastic trays for food
• 1.8. Marks & Spencer paybacks
• 1.9. Costs per annum for RF Tags
• 1.10. RFID and the hype cycle for pallets/cases
• 2.1. The original EPC dream for item level tagging and what really happened
• 2.2. Procter & Gamble forecast for EPC CPG tagging at pallet, case and item level 2003 to 2010
• 3.1. Top ten countries by number of case studies on the IDTechEx RFID Knowledgebase Q1 2009
• 4.1. Passive RFID applications in packaging and containers by range
• 4.2. RFID range versus cost
• 5.1. Passive RFID compared with the various types of active RFID
• 5.2. Read range versus frequency
• 5.3. Printed batteries from Infinite Power Solutions and the concept by the Smart Active Labels Consortium of using RFID smart labels with similar batteries to boost range in warehouse environments.
• 5.4. RFID protecting keys against theft or misuse.
• 5.5. Wristwatch transmitters worn by inmates
• 5.6. Three phases in the evolution of active RFID
• 5.7. Systems, devices and interfaces that are now used by active RFID, or combined with it, in small portable devices.
• 8.1. A traditional bullet-like LF tag, left, as used in the shoes of marathon runners for timing and in animals. This is compared with, centre, a label at HF, and right one at UHF, both being the size of a credit card but thinner.
• 8.2. Examples of contactless transactional media
• 8.3. Japanese train traveller paying for transport by resting a DoCoMo RFID enabled phone on a terminal and receiving a receipt.
• 8.4. Con Tag on a ticket machine that opens up a ticketing application in an RFID phone held nearby.
• 8.5. Some of the potential stakeholders in the NFC phone value chain
• 8.6. Basic functionality of an NFC enabled phone
• 8.7. Trial of NFC phones in Caen in France
• 8.8. Malaysian project for Ubiquitous Sensor Networks etc
• 8.9. What is USN in Korea?
• 8.10. Korean program towards ubiquitous sensor enabled RFID 2004 to 2010 as presented at the IDTechEx conference Smart Labels Asia in Tokyo
• 9.1. Principle of automatic mail registrations with RFID
• 9.2. Mobile AMQM - equipment and practical use
• 9.3. US Navy program for the ship of the future based on RFID and allied technologies
• 9.4. What part of the problem are we solving?
• 9.5. Driving adoption
• 9.6. Examples of laundry tags
• 9.7. Typical laundry process
• 9.8. Woven, stitchable RFID tags, the one on the left being HF and the one on the right UHF.
• 9.9. RFID in fibre
• 9.10. Some laundry tag suppliers
• 9.11. IDTechEx forecast of global laundry tag market in millions of tags 2009-2019
• 10.1. Today' s RFID value chain
• 10.2. Detailed value chain and dynamics
• 10.3. Detailed value chain for materials aspects
• 10.4. Position of RFID suppliers to certain sectors, following the methodology of Boston Consulting Group
• 10.5. How most mergers and acquisitions take companies towards total system supply and system integration/ facilities management to chase the big orders.
• 10.6. High volume item level RFID tagging
• 10.7. The market for add-on printed RFID
• 10.8. Competing value chains for tags