3G Femtocells and Beyond Opportunities & Service Scenarios in the Home 2009 - 2014

Table of Contents

Glossary

Executive Summary

• Introduction
• Industry Update
• Market Forecast Scenarios
• 3G Femtocell Access Point Forecast
• 3G Femtocell Subscribers Forecast
• 3G Femtocell Service Revenues Forecast
• Market Drivers
• Recommendations

1. Technology & Market Drivers

• 1.1 Definition
  • Figure 1.1: Femtocell Network Connectivity
  • Figure 1.2: Femtocell Network at Home
  • Figure 1.3 Femtocell Services in the Home
• 1.2 Network Hardware Elements
  • 1.2.1 Chipsets
  • 1.2.2 Access Points
    • Figure 1.4: ip.access Oyster 3G Femtocell Access Point
    • Figure 1.5: Airvana HubBub UMTS Femtocell Access Point
    • Figure 1.6 Alcatel-Lucent/Sagem Femtocell Access Point
  • 1.2.3 Gateways
    • Figure 1.7: Femtocell Converged Gateway GENBAND G9
• 1.3 Recent Developments
  • 1.3.1 3GPP Release 8 Standard
  • 1.3.2 Interference
  • 1.3.2 Business Case
  • 1.3.3 Further Standards
• 1.4 Market Drivers
  • 1.4.1 Personal Connectivity: �gAlways On�h
    • Figure 1.8: Broadband Connectivity Demand Cycle
  • 1.4.2 Poor In-Building Coverage
    • Figure 1.9: Voice vs. Data ARPU 2008 by Country
  • 1.4.3 Data Traffic Growth & New Services
    • i. Orange Reveals Digital Media Boom
    • ii. Cisco Data Traffic Forecast
      • Figure 1.10: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast
    • iii. Growth of Mobile Commerce
      • Figure 1.11: Bank of America Mobile Banking Screens
      • Figure 1.12: mPoria Mobile Web Shopping Portal
    • iv. Mobile Web 2.0 - Future Applications and Services
    • v. Video iPod Ignites Portable Video Revolution
      • Figure 1.13: Mobile Data Drivers - The Role of Video
  • 1.4.4 Data Traffic Offload - Cost Reduction
    • Figure 1.14: Mobile Broadband Traffic Volume vs. Revenue
  • 1.4.5 Femtocell Challenges
  • 1.4.6 Conclusion
    • Figure 1.15: Femtocell Market Drivers

2. Market Dynamics

• 2.1 Femto Forum Interview
  • 2.1.1 Background/History
  • 2.1.2 Forum' s Aims
  • 2.1.3 Technical Considerations - Interference
  • 2.1.4 Femtocell Standardisation
  • 2.1.5 Business Case
  • 2.1.6 Forum Targets 2009
  • 2.1.7 Market Issues and Opportunities
• 2.2 Femtocell Trials
  • Table 2.1: 3G Home Femtocell Trials Split by 8 Key Regions
• 2.3 Femtocell Vendor Ecosystem
  • 2.3.1 The Big Picture
  • 2.3.2 Ecosystem Relationships
    • Table 2.2: Femtocell Ecosystem

3. Market Forecast Approach

• 3.1 Methodology
  • Figure 3.1: Femtocell Market Forecast Methodology
• 3.2 Geographical Splits
• 3.3 Residential Broadband Subscriber Forecast
  • Figure 3.2: Number of Consumer 3G/3.5G/3.9G Subscribers per Residential Broadband Subscriber by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • Table 3.1: Number of Consumer 3G/3.5G/3.9G Subscribers per Residential Broadband Subscriber by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • Figure 3.3: Residential Broadband Subscribers as a Percentage of Total Households Split by Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • Table 3.2: Residential Broadband Subscribers as a Percentage of Total Households Split by Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • Figure 3.4: Residential Broadband Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • Table 3.3: Residential Broadband Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
• 3.4 Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Forecast
  • Figure 3.5: Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • Table 3.4: Consumer 3G Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
• 3.5 Forecast Scenarios
  • Table 3.5: Femtocell Forecast Scenario Parameter Comparison: Baseline, Best & Worst Cases

4. Baseline Scenario

• 4.1 3G Femtocell Regional Forecast
  • 4.1.1 North America
  • 4.1.2 Western Europe
  • 4.1.3 Far East & China and Rest of Asia Pacific
  • 4.1.4 3G Femtocell Take-up and Access Points Forecasts
    • Figure 4.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 4.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Figure 4.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 4.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
• 4.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units
  • 4.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments
    • Figure 4.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 4.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 4.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments
    • Figure 4.4: Airvana HubBub UMTS Femtocell Access Point
    • Figure 4.5: Standalone 3G Femtocells Market Segmentation (%) Split by Region Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 4.4: Standalone 3G Femtocells Market Segmentation (Percent) Split by Region Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Figure 4.6: Standalone 3G Femtocell Shipments (m) Split by Region Baseline Scenario 2009 2014
    • Table 4.5: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 4.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments
    • Figure 4.7: Netgear' s View of Home Connectivity
    • Figure 4.8: Netgear - Multi Function Broadband WiFi Gateway
    • Figure 4.9: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 4.6: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
• 4.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Pricing
  • Figure 4.10: picoChip PC302 Single-chip 3GPP Femtocell
  • Figure 4.11: 3G Femtocell Pricing ($) for Standalone and Integrated Product Types Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • Table 4.7: 3G Femtocell Pricing ($) for Standalone and Integrated Product Types Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
• 4.4 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value
  • 4.4.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market
    • Figure 4.12: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($ million) Split by Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 4.8: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($ million) Split by Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 4.4.2 Standalone Access Point Market
    • Figure 4.13: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 4.9: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 4.4.3 Integrated Access Point Market
    • Figure 4.14: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 4.10: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
• 4.5 3G Femtocell Subscribers
  • Figure 4.15: Ratio of 3G Consumer Subscribers to Residential Broadband Subscribers - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • Table 4.11: Ratio of 3G Consumer Subscribers to Residential Broadband Subscribers - by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • Figure 4.16: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • Table 4.12: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
• 4.6 3G Femtocell Service Revenues
  • 4.6.1 Package Types and Pricing
  • 4.6.2 Service Revenues by Package Type
    • Figure 4.17: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Figure 4.18: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (Percent) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 4.13: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (Percent) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Figure 4.19: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 4.14: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 4.15: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 4.6.2 Service Revenues by Region
    • Figure 4.20: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 4.16: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Baseline Scenario 2009 - 2014

5. Best Case Scenario

• 5.1 3G Femtocell Take-up
  • Figure 5.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • Table 5.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • Figure 5.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • Table 5.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
• 5.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units
  • 5.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments
    • Figure 5.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 5.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 5.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments
    • Figure 5.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Shipments (m) Split by Region Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 5.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 5.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments
    • Figure 5.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 5.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
• 5.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value
  • 5.3.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market
    • Figure 5.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 5.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 5.3.2 Standalone Access Point Market
    • Figure 5.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 5.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 5.3.3 Integrated Access Point Market
    • Figure 5.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 5.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
• 5.4 3G Femtocell Subscribers
  • Figure 5.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 2014
  • Table 5.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
• 5.5 3G Femtocell Service Revenues
  • 5.5.1 Service Revenues by Package Type
    • Figure 5.10: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Figure 5.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (Percent) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 5.10: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (Percent) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Figure 5.12: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 5.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 5.12: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 5.5.2 Service Revenues by Region
    • Figure 5.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 5.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Best Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

6. Worst Case Scenario

• 6.1 3G Femtocell Take-up
  • Figure 6.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split by Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • Table 6.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - Percentage of Residential Broadband Subscribers Split 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • Figure 6.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • Table 6.2: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
• 6.2 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments: Units
  • 6.2.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Shipments 85
    • Figure 6.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 6.3: Standalone & Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 6.2.2 Standalone Access Point Shipments
    • Figure 6.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Shipments (m) Split by Region Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 6.4: Standalone 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 6.2.3 Integrated Access Point Shipments
    • Figure 6.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by Region Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 6.5: Integrated 3G Femtocell Access Point Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
• 6.3 3G Femtocell Access Point Market Value
  • 6.3.1 Standalone and Integrated Access Point Market
    • Figure 6.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 6.6: 3G Femtocell Standalone & Integrated Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 6.3.2 Standalone Access Point Market
    • Figure 6.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 6.7: 3G Femtocell Standalone Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 6.3.3 Integrated Access Point Market
    • Figure 6.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 6.8: 3G Femtocell Integrated Access Point Market ($ million) Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
• 6.4 3G Femtocell Subscribers
  • Figure 6.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • Table 6.9: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
• 6.5 3G Femtocell Service Revenues
  • 6.5.1 Service Revenues by Package Type
    • Figure 6.10: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Figure 6.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (Percent) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 6.10: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (Percent) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Figure 6.12: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 6.11: Femtocell Service: New & Enhanced Services Take-up of Subscribers (m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 6.12: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by Service Package Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
  • 6.5.2 Service Revenues by Region
    • Figure 6.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014
    • Table 6.13: Femtocell Service Revenues ($m) - Split by 8 Key Regions Worst Case Scenario 2009 - 2014

7. Scenario Comparison and Analysis

• 7.1 3G Femtocell Take-up
  • Figure 7.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
  • Table 7.1: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
  • Figure 7.2: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario Comparison Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case Split by 3 Key Regions 2014
  • Table 7.2: 3G Femtocell Take-up - % of Residential Broadband Subscribers Scenario Comparison Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case Split by 3 Key Regions 2014
• 7.2 3G Femtocell Access Points Scenario Comparison
  • Figure 7.3: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
  • Table 7.3: 3G Femtocell Access Points (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
• 7.3 3G Femtocell Subscribers Scenario Comparison
  • Figure 7.4: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
  • Table 7.4: 3G Femtocell Subscribers (m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
• 7.4 3G Femtocell Service Revenues Scenario Comparison
  • Figure 7.5: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
  • Table 7.5: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2009 - 2014
  • Figure 7.6: 3G Femtocell Total Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014
  • Figure 7.7: 3G Femtocell New and Enhanced Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014
  • Table 7.6: 3G Femtocell New and Enhanced Service Revenues ($m) Scenario Comparison Global Best Case/Baseline/Worst Case 2012 and 2014
  • Figure 7.8 O2 Joggler