Mobile Open Source Operating Systems Markets & Opportunities 2009-2014

Table of Contents

Glossary

Executive Summary

• Types of Open Source OS Business Model
• Types of Proprietary OS
• Why Open Source?
• The Smartphone Market
  • Figure ES1: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems 2008-2014
  • Table ES1: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems 2008-2014
• Outlook

1. Operating Systems

• 1.1 Introduction
• 1.2 Mobile Telecoms Development
  • Figure 1.1: The Motorola DynaTAC 8000X Portable Cellular Phone, 1983
  • Figure 1.2: The Modu Mini-phone, 2008
• 1.3 What is an Operating System?
  • Figure 1.3: How Does the OS Fit into a Mobile Phone?
• 1.4 What is Open Source?
  • i. Open Source vs. Free Software
  • ii. Open Source Initiative
  • iii. The Open Source Definition
  • Table 1.1: The Open Source Definition
• 1.5 Open Source vs. Proprietary
  • i. Proprietary
  • ii. Open Source
  • i. The Pros & Cons
• 1.6 The Current Landscape
  • 1.6.1Current Operating Systems
  • 1.6.2 History of the Open Source Mobile OS
  • 1.6.3 Open Source: The Historical View
    • Table 1.2: Timeline of Key Events in the Uptake of Open Source OSs in Mobile
    • Figure 1.4: Smartphone Market Share (%) by Operating System, 2008
    • i. Prior to June 2008
      • Table 1.2: Breakdown of OS by Type (Proprietary & Open Source) Prior to June 2008
      • Figure 1.5: Proprietary vs. Open Source OS Market Share Prior to June 2008
    • ii. After June 2008
      • Figure 1.6: Proprietary vs. Open Source OS Market Share Following the Announcement of the Symbian Foundation
  • 1.6.4 Open Source: The Way Forward?

2. The Open Source OS

• 2.1 Introduction
  • Table 2.1: Open Source OS
• 2.2 LiMo Foundation
  • 2.2.1 Overview and History
    • Table 2.2: LiMo History
  • 2.2.2 LiMo Users
    • Figure 2.1: Panasonic NTT DoCoMo FOMA P905i
    • Figure 2.2: The Purple Labs Purple Magic phone
  • 2.2.3 Funding
  • 2.2.4 Governance
    • Figure 2.3: The LiMo Foundation Governance Model
  • 2.2.5 Technical Details
    • Figure 2.4: RI Platform Scope -The First Release Platform from LiMo
    • i. The Foundation Platform
      • Figure 2.5: LiMo Platform Architecture, January 2009
    • ii. Portability
    • iii. Test and Certification
  • 2.2.6 Licensing
    • i. Foundation API
    • ii. Middleware
    • iii. Kernel
    • iv. Overall Picture
  • 2.2.7 Roadmap
    • Figure 2.6: R2 Platform Scope
    • Figure 2.7: Roadmap from LiMo Foundation (April 2008)
• 2.3 OHA
  • 2.3.1 Overview and History
    • Table: 2.3 Timeline of OHA Announcements Relating to Android
  • 2.3.2 Users
  • 2.3.3 Funding
  • 2.3.4 Governance
  • 2.3.5 Technical Aspects
    • Figure 2.8: The Android OS Components
  • 2.3.6 Licensing
  • 2.3.7 Roadmap
• 2.4 Symbian Foundation
  • 2.4.1 Overview and History
    • i. Proprietary Symbian OS
    • ii. Symbian Foundation
  • 2.4.2 Symbian Users
  • 2.4.3 Funding
  • 2.4.4 Governance.
    • Figure 2.9: Symbian Foundation Governance
  • 2.4.5 Technical Details
    • Figure 2.10: Symbian Foundation Assets to be Unified to Create One Platform
      • i. Core OS
      • ii. User Interface Elements
    • Figure 2.11: Overview of Symbian Foundation Platform
      • iii. Developer Support
  • 2.4.6 Licensing of Foundations Assets
  • 2.4.7 Roadmap
• 2.5 Others
  • 2.5.1 Maemo
  • 2.5.2 OpenMoko

3. Proprietary Solutions

• 3.1 Introduction
• 3.2 iPhone OS
  • 3.2.1 Overview and History
  • 3.2.2 Users & Licensing Policy
  • 3.2.3 Business Model
  • 3.2.4 Technical Details
    • i. iPhone SDK
  • 3.2.5 Roadmap
• 3.3 RIM (BlackBerry) OS
  • 3.3.1 Overview and History
  • 3.3.2 Users & Licensing Policy
    • Figure 3.2: Integration of Brands with BlackBerry
  • 3.3.3 Business Model
  • 3.3.4 Technical Details
    • Figure 3.3: BlackBerry Solution Architecture
    • i. Application Developers
  • 3.3.6 Roadmap
• 3.4 Windows Mobile
  • 3.4.1 Overview and History
  • 3.4.2 Users & Licensing
  • 3.4.3 Business Model
  • 3.4.4 Technical Details
  • 3.4.5 Roadmap
• 3.5 Palm OS Family
  • 3.5.1 Overview and History
  • 3.5.2 Users & Licensing
  • 3.5.3 Business Model
  • 3.5.4 Technical Details
  • 3.5.5 Roadmap

4. Business Models

• 4.1 Value of the Proprietary OS
  • i. The Types of Business Model
  • 4.1.1 Apple: iPhone OS
    • i. The App Store
    • ii. The Apple Philosophy
  • 4.1.2 RIM: BlackBerry OS
    • i. Partnership
    • ii. BlackBerry Application Storefront
    • iii. The “Virtual” BlackBerry
  • 4.1.3 ACCESS: Garnet OS
  • 4.1.4 Microsoft: Windows Mobile
• 4.2 Value of an Open Source OS
  • 4.2.1 The Value Proposition for Open Source
    • i. Reduced Development Overhead
    • ii. Independence
    • iii. Differentiation
    • iv. Time to Market
    • v. Bug Fixes
    • vi. Innovation
    • vii. Prevention of Fragmentation
    • viii. Service-based Revenue Opportunities
• 4.3 Value Proposition in Mobile OS
  • 4.3.1 LiMo Foundation
    • i. Members
    • ii. Third Party Application Developers
  • 4.3.2 Google & OHA
    • i. Members
    • ii. Third Party Developers
  • 4.3.3 Symbian Foundation
    • i. Members
    • ii. Third Party Developers
  • 4.3.4 The Relative Value
    • i. Membership Fees
      • Figure 4.1: Direct Membership Costs for Each Group ($000)
    • ii. Reduction in Licence Royalty Costs
    • iii. Licence
    • iv. Governance
    • v. Quality, Direction and Code Management
    • vi. Market Value
    • vii. Professional Development Value
    • viii. Overall Value
      • Figure 4.2: Raw Relative Value Analysis
      • a. Licence
      • Table 4.1: Relative Value of Openness of Licence
      • b. Governance
      • Table 4.2: Relative Value of Governance
      • c. Quality/Code Management
      • Table 4.3: Relative Value of Code Management
      • d. Openness & Collaboration
      • Table 4.4: Relative Value of Openness and Collaboration
      • e. Market Value
      • Table 4.5: Relative Value of Market
      • f. Overall Value Analysis
      • Figure 4.3: Adjusted Relative Value Analysis Based on Market Share (2009)
  • 4.3.5 Value of Each Solution
    • i. Direct Membership Costs
      • Figure 4.4: Value for Money of Membership
      • Table 4.6: The Relative Value for Money of Membership

5. Forecasts

• 5.1 Mobile Handset Shipments
  • Figure 5.1: Annual Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
  • Table 5.1: Total Number of Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
  • Figure 5.2: Global Annual Handset Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
  • 5.1.2 Smartphones as a Proportion of the Mobile Handset Market
    • Table 5.2: Percentage of New Handsets Which are Smartphones Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Figure 5.3: Annual Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 5.3: Annual Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
• 5.2 Market Share by Operating System
  • 5.2.1 Symbian
    • Table 5.4: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Figure 5.4: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 5.5: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 5.6: Year-on-year Growth (%) for Number of Regional Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Symbian OS 2008-2014
  • 5.2.2 LiMo
    • Table 5.7: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using LiMo Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Figure 5.5: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using LiMo OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 5.8: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using LiMo OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 5.9: Year-on-Year Growth for Number Smartphone Shipments Using LiMo OS 2008-2014
  • 5.2.3 Android
    • Table 5.10: Percentage of Smartphone Shipments Using Android OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Figure 5.6: Smartphones Shipments (m) With Android OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 5.11: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Android OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 5.12: Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Android OS 2008-2014
  • 5.2.4 RIM
    • Table 5.13: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using RIM' s Proprietary OS Split 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Figure 5.7: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using RIM Proprietary OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008- 2014
    • Table 5.14: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using RIM Proprietary OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 5.15: Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using RIM' s Proprietary OS 2008-2014
  • 5.2.5 iPhone OS
    • Table 5.16: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Apple' s Proprietary iPhone OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Figure 5.8: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Apple' s Proprietary iPhone OS (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 5.17: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Apple' s Proprietary iPhone OS (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 5.18: Year-on-Year Growth (%) for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using Apple' s Proprietary iPhone OS 2008-2014
  • 5.2.6 Windows Mobile
    • Table 7.19: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments of Handsets Using Windows Mobile OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Figure 5.9: Smartphones Shipments (m) Which use Windows Mobile OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 5.20: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Microsoft' s Proprietary Windows Mobile OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 5.21: Year-on-Year Growth for Number of Smartphone Shipments Using Windows Mobile OS 2008-2014
    • Table 5.22: License Fee Cost ($) for Windows Mobile OS 2008-2014
    • Table 5.23: Annual Revenue ($m) from Windows Mobile Licenses Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
  • 5.2.7 Palm OS Garnet
    • Table 5.24: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Palm OS Garnet Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 5.25: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Palm OS Garnet Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Figure 5.10: Smartphones Shipments (m) with Palm OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
  • 5.2.8 Others
    • Table 5.26: Percentage of Regional Smartphone Shipments Using Other OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Figure 5.11: Smartphone Shipments (m) with Other OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
    • Table 5.27: Smartphone Shipments (m) Using Other OS Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014
  • 5.2.9 Total Market Share
    • Figure 5.12: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems 2008-2014
    • Table 5.28: Total Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Operating Systems 2008-2014
• 5.3 Market Share by OS Type
  • Table 5.29: Total Number of Smartphone Shipments (m) Split by Open Source and Closed Source OS 2008-2014
  • Table 5.30: Percentage of Smartphone Shipments Using Various OSs Split by Open Source, Closed Source & Others 2008-2014

6. Who Uses What?

• 6.1 Membership of Projects
  • 6.1.1 LiMo Foundation
    • Table 6.1: LiMo Foundation Membership - Founder Members
    • Table 6.2: LiMo Foundation Membership - Core Members
    • Table 6.3: LiMo Foundation Membership - Associate Members
  • 6.1.2 Open Handset Alliance
    • Table 6.4: OHA Membership - Founder Members (January 2009)
    • Table 6.5: Additional Members of OHA (January 2009)
  • 6.1.3 Symbian Foundation
    • Table 6.6: Symbian Foundation Membership - Founder Members (January 2009)
    • Table 6.7: Symbian Foundation Membership - Endorsing Members (January 2009)
    • Table 6.7 (cont)
• 6.2 Overlap
  • 6.2.1 Device Manufacturers
    • Table 6.8: Device Manufacturer Membership Status, Q1 2009
  • 6.2.2 Semiconductors
    • Table 6.9: Semiconductor Vendor Membership Status, Q1 2009
  • 6.2.3 Network Operators
    • Table 6.10: Network Operator Membership Status
  • 6.2.4 Software and Services Companies

7. Market Drivers

• 7.1 World Economics
  • 6.1.1 Current Economic Situation
    • Table 7.1: Annual % Change in Real GDP for 2009 Forecasted for Far East and Asia Pacific
    • i. Asia
      • a. China
      • b. Japan
      • c. Singapore
      • d. South Korea
      • e. Taiwan
    • ii. Western Europe
      • a. The EuroZone
      • b. UK
    • iii. Eastern Europe
      • a. Russia
    • iv. North America
      • a. United States
      • b. Canada
    • v. South America & Caribbean
      • a. Africa & Middle East
      • b. Middle East
      • c. Israel
    • vii. Indian Sub Continent
    • vii. Rest of Asia Pacific
      • a. Australia, New Zealand
  • 7.1.2 Future Predictions
    • i. Prospects for the Overall Mobile Market
      • a. Innovation
      • b. Investment in New Technology
      • c. Market Growth
• 7.2 The Impact on Operating Systems
  • 7.2.1 Proprietary
    • i. Microsoft - Windows Mobile OS
      • a. Commoditisation
      • b. High Spread/Low Penetration of Market
      • c. Perception
      • d. Outcomes
    • ii. Apple iPhone OS
      • a. Cost of OS
      • b. History of Innovation
      • c. Target Market
      • d. Outcomes
    • iii. RIM
      • a. Target Market
      • b. Cost of OS
      • c. Market Differentiation
      • d. Outcomes
  • 7.2.2 Open Source
    • i. LiMo
    • ii. Android
    • iii. Symbian
  • 7.2.3 Overall Market

Appendix 1

• Interviews
  • LiMo Foundation
  • Symbian/Symbian Foundation
  • Funambol
  • Aricent
  • ARM
  • RIM
  • DeviceAnywhere
  • VMware
  • Foehn
  • Dexterra