NFC Mobile Payments & Marketing Opportunities Forecasts & Analysis 2009 - 2014

Table of Contents

Glossary

Executive Summary

• Introduction
• Executive Interviewing Programme
• What' s New in NFC?
• New NFC Retail Marketing Opportunities
• Market Projections
  • Mobile Device Markets
  • NFC Device Markets
    • Figure ES.1: NFC Device Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
    • Table ES.1: NFC Device Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • NFC Devices in Use for Payments
    • Figure ES.2: NFC Devices in Use for Payments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
    • Table ES.2: NFC Devices in Use for Payments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Interim NFC Solutions (Stickers & SD Cards)
    • Figure ES.3: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
    • Table ES.3: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Global and Regional Transaction Value Forecasts
    • Figure ES.4: Total Value of NFC Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
    • Table ES.4: Total Value of NFC Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • NFC Total Payment and Retail Marketing ARPU Opportunity
    • Figure ES.5: NFC Mobile Payment & Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Payment Transactions, Coupons and Smart Posters 2009-2014
    • Table ES.5: NFC Mobile Payment & Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Payment Transactions, Coupons and Smart Posters 2009-2014
• NFC Drivers & Constraints
• Figure ES.6: NFC Drivers and Constraints
• Recommendations

1. Mobile Commerce & Payments Market Trends

• 1.1 Introduction
  • Figure 1.1: Telstra 1H 2009 Mobile Revenues Split by Voice and Data
• 1.2 Market Drivers and Constraints
  • Figure 1.2: Mobile Payments: Summary of Market Drivers & Constraints
  • 1.2.1 Drivers
    • i. Attractive to Users
    • ii. ARPU Growth Opportunity
    • iii. Larger Retail Transactions
    • iv. Cash Replacement
    • v. Developing World Financial Services
    • vi. Lower Churn for Mobile Operators
    • vii. Migrant Workers Driving International Money Transfers
    • viii. Smartphone Growth
    • ix. Quicker than Cash
  • 1.2.2 Constraints
    • i. Handset Supply
    • ii. Poor User Experience
    • iii. Business Model Uncertainties
    • iv. Lack of Global Technology Standards
    • v. Regulatory Hurdles
    • vi. User Support and Help
    • vii. Transaction Costs

2. Mobile Payments: Market Structure

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 Definition
  • Figure 2.1: Generic mCommerce Payment Process
• 2.3 Segmentation
  • 2.3.1 Mobile Commerce Segments
  • Figure 2.2: Mobile Commerce Market Segmentation
  • i. Categories of Mobile Payments
  • a) Remote Mobile Payment Sub-segments
  • b) Point of Sale Payment Sub-segments
• 2.4 Classification of Payment Schemes
  • Table 2.1: Mobile Payment Classification
  • 2.4.1 Remote Mobile Payment
  • i. Mobile Phone Bill - "direct to bill" (D2B) Payment
  • ii. Premium Rate SMS (PRSMS) - Digital Goods
  • iii. Online - Payment for the Mobile Web & WAP Billing
  • iv. SMS Payment - Mobile Wallet and Account Based Payment
  • Figure 2.3: PayPal Mobile "Text To Buy"
  • v. Person-to-Person (P2P) Payment
  • vi. Remote Physical/ Mobile Web & WAP Billing
  • 2.4.2 POS (Point of Sale) Mobile Payment
  • i. NFC Payments
  • ii. Text and PIN
• 2.5 On Deck & Off Deck

3. NFC & FeliCa Technology Drivers & Inhibitors

• 3.1 Introduction
• 3.2. Near Field Communication (NFC)
  • 3.2.1 Technology
  • 3.2.2 NFC Implementation
  • Figure 3.1: Oyster Card Using MIFARE Technology
  • Figure 3.2 Moscow Metro Mifare Contactless Card System
  • Figure 3.3: Typical NFC Implementation
  • 3.2.3 Interim NFC Solutions
  • Figure 3.4: Integration Phase Comparison - NFC and Mobile Broadband
  • i. NFC Stickers
  • Figure 3.5: Twinlinx My-Max NFC Sticker
  • ii. SD Cards
  • Figure 3.6: Giesecke & Devrient NFC SD Card
  • 3.2.4 Use Cases: NFC Forum Interview
  • i. Specifications and Application Types
  • Figure 3.7: NFC Application Types
  • Figure 3.8: Uses of NFC
  • ii. Further Vertical Markets
  • Figure 3.9: NFC in the Automotive Industry
  • 3.2.5 Security
• 3.3 FeliCa
  • 3.3.1 Introduction
  • 3.3.2 Standards & Specification
  • Figure 3.10: Sony FeliCa IC Card and Reader/Writer
  • 3.3.3 Security
  • Figure 3.11: Sony FeliCa Security Features
  • Figure 3.12: FeliCa Networks Platform Management
  • 3.3.4 Uses
  • Figure 3.13: Uses of FeliCa
• 3.4 NFC Drivers and Constraints
  • Figure 3.14: NFC Drivers and Constraints
  • 3.4.1 NFC Drivers
  • i. Transaction Efficiency & Growth
  • ii. Infrastructure Availability
  • iii. Success Stories and PR
  • iv. Future Service Enhancements
  • v. Widespread NFC Applications
  • vi. One to One Mobile Marketing Opportunity
  • 3.4.2 Constraints
  • i. Business Model Uncertainties
  • Figure 3.15: NFC Ecosystem Top Level View
  • ii. Device Availability
  • iii. Service Complexity and Management
  • Figure 3.16: NFC Ecosystem Detailed View
  • iv. Ecosystem Incentivisation
  • v. Infrastructure Availability

4. Market Forecasts: NFC Payments, Fees & Retail Marketing

• 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.1.1 NFC Payments
  • 4.1.2 New NFC Retail Marketing Opportunities
• 4.2 Methodology
  • 4.2.1 Approach and Assumptions
  • Figure 4.1: NFC Market Forecast Methodology
  • 4.2.2 Geographical Splits
• 4.3 Mobile Subscriber Forecast
  • Figure 4.2: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • Table 4.1: Mobile Subscriber Base (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • 4.4 Mobile Device Shipment Forecast
  • Figure 4.3: Mobile Device Shipment (m p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • Table 4.2: Mobile Device Shipments (m p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • Figure 4.4: Mobile Device Shipments Churn (% p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
  • Table 4.3: Mobile Device Shipments Churn (% p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009 - 2014
• 4.5 NFC Mobile Device Shipment Forecast
  • Figure 4.5: NFC Mobile Devices (% of Shipments) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.4: NFC Mobile Devices (% of Shipments) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Figure 4.6: NFC Mobile Device Shipments (m p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.5: NFC Mobile Device Shipments (m p.a.) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Figure 4.7: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With NFC Devices Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.6: Total Number of Mobile Users (m) With NFC Devices Split by 8 Key Regions 2009- 2014
• 4.6 Interim NFC Solutions Forecast
  • Figure 4.8: NFC Interim Solutions Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.7: NFC Interim Solutions Shipments (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Figure 4.9: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.8: Total Number of Mobile Subscribers (m) With Interim NFC Capability Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
• 4.7 NFC Devices & Interim Solutions
  • Figure 4.10: Global Comparison: Subscribers with NFC Phones vs Interim Solutions (m) 2009 - 2014
  • Table 4.9: Global Comparison: Subscribers with NFC Phones vs. Interim Solutions (m) 2009 - 2014
• 4.8 NFC Devices in Use
  • Figure 4.11: Percentage of NFC Devices in Use Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.10: Percentage of NFC Devices in Use Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Figure 4.12: NFC Devices in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.11: NFC Devices in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Figure 4.13: NFC Devices in Use as % of All Mobile Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.12: NFC Devices in Use as % of All Mobile Subscribers Split by 8 Key Regions 2009- 2014
• 4.9 NFC Devices & Interim Solutions in Use
  • Figure 4.14: NFC Devices & Interim Solutions in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.13: NFC Devices & Interim Solutions in Use (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
• 4.10 NFC Transactions Traffic
• 4.10.1 Average Number of NFC Transactions
  • Figure 4.15: Average Number of NFC Payment Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.14: Average Number of NFC Payment Transactions per User p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • 4.10.2 Total Number of NFC Transactions
  • Figure 4.16: Total Number of NFC Payment Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.15: Total Number of NFC Payment Transactions (m) p.a. Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
• 4.11 NFC Payment Transactions Value
  • Figure 4.17: Average Value of NFC Payment Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.16: Average Value of NFC Payment Transactions ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Figure 4.18: Total Value of NFC Mobile Payment Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.17: Total Value of NFC Mobile Payment Transactions ($m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Figure 4.19: NFC Gross Payment Transaction ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.18: NFC Gross Transaction ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
• 4.12 NFC ARPU Opportunities
  • 4.12.1 Mobile Payment Transaction Fees
  • Figure 4.20: NFC Payment Transaction Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • Table 4.19: NFC Payment Transaction Fee ARPU ($) Split by 8 Key Regions 2009-2014
  • 4.12.2 NFC Retail Marketing
  • Figure 4.21: NFC Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Coupons and Smart Posters 2009-2014
  • Table 4.20: NFC Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Coupons and Smart Posters 2009-2014
  • 4.12.3 Total NFC ARPU Opportunity
  • Figure 4.22: NFC Payment & Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Payment Transactions, Coupons and Smart Posters 2009-2014
  • Table 4.21: NFC Payment & Retail Marketing Incremental ARPU Opportunity ($) Split by Payment Transactions, Coupons and Smart Posters 2009-2014

5. Applications & Services

• 5.1 Applications and Services
  • 5.1.1 Global
  • i. GSM Association Interview
  • Figure 5.1: Pay Buy Mobile Participating MNOs Worldwide
  • ii. NFC Forum Interview
  • Figure 5.2: NFC Projects Testing a Variety of Applications
  • 5.1.2 North America
  • Figure 5.3: Visa payWave Payment Options
  • 5.1.3 South America
  • 5.1.4 Western Europe
  • i. Overview Figure 5.4: A1 mobilkom austria: Buying Train Tickets
  • ii. Visa Europe Interview
  • a. Market Assessment
  • b. Future Trends
  • iii. O2 UK Interview
  • b. O2 Wireless Festival 2007 & 2008
  • c. London Fashion Week February 2008
  • Figure 5.5: O2 Money Service
  • iv. Italy. 93
  • v. France 93
  • 5.1.5 Eastern Europe
  • 5.1.6 Indian Sub Continent
  • 5.1.7 Far East & China
  • i. NTT DoCoMo
  • Figure 5.6: Osaifu-Keitai Service Concept
  • Figure 5.7: Osaifu-Keitai in Various Scenes in Daily Life
  • Figure 5.8: Growth of Mobile Commerce Revenues in Japan 2004 - 2007 (100 million yen)96
  • ii. SK Telecom
  • 5.1.8 Rest of Asia Pacific
  • i. Malaysia 97
  • Figure 5.9: Maxis FastTap Service
  • Figure 5.10: Maxis FastTap Service Outlets
  • ii. Singapore 99
  • iii. Australia 99
  • 5.1.9 Africa and Middle East

6. Vendors

• 6.1 Introduction
  • 6.1.1 Innovision
  • i. Products and Markets Update
  • Figure 6.1: Topaz Tags
  • ii. Top Market Trends & Issues
  • 6.1.2 NXP
  • i. Products and Markets Update
  • ii. Top Market Trends & Issues
  • 6.1.3 Nokia
  • i. Products and Markets Update
  • Figure 6.2: Nokia 6216 Classic
  • ii. Top Market Trends & Issues
  • Figure 6.3: Evolution of Mobile Financial Services
  • 6.1.4 ViVOtech
  • i. Products and Markets Update
  • Figure 6.4: ViVOtech POS Product Range
  • Figure 6.5: ViVOtech Strategic Development Areas
  • ii. Top Market Trends & Issues
  • 6.1.5 Proxama
  • i. Products and Markets Update
  • ii. Top Market Trends & Issues
  • 6.1.6 Mobile Distillery
  • i. Products and Markets Update
  • ii. Top Market Trends & Issues

7. Standards & Forums

• 7.1 Introduction
  • 7.1.1 Who is Doing What?
  • Table 7.1: Overview of Selected Forum Activity
• 7.2 ETSI
  • 7.2.1 Members
• 7.3 The GSM Association
  • 7.3.1 Mobile Money Activities
  • Figure 7.1: GSMA Mobile Money Activities
  • Figure 7.2: PBM Purchasing Process
  • Figure 7.3: PBM Architecture
  • 7.3.2 Members
• 7.4 International Organisation for Standards (ISO)
  • 7.4.1Members
• 7.5 Mobey Forum
  • 7.5.1Members
• 7.6 NFC Forum
  • Figure 7.4: NFC Forum "N" Mark
  • 7.6.1 Members
• 7.7 Open Mobile Alliance (OMA)
  • 7.7.1 Members
• 7.8 EMVCo
• 7.9 European Payments Council
• 7.10 Smart Card Alliance
  • 7.10.1 Members
• 7.11 Further Organisations