Abstract
This is just-auto' s first global market review of hybrids and electric drive
technology. With these sectors set to dominate alternative propulsion and the
drive for better fuel efficiency over the short-term future, this report
provides a timely review of the latest technologies from the main players, our
analysis of market take-up and a review of the different technologies and
where they are heading.
Most industry analysts expect plug-in hybrids and battery-electric vehicles to
follow a roughly similar growth curve, though aggressive government policies
to subsidise plug-ins may increase consumer take-up by compensating for the
high cost of the battery packs over the first few years.
Idle-stop, or micro-hybrid systems seem likely to penetrate certain regions -
especially Europe - quite rapidly over the next five years.
So how fast will hybrids, plug-ins and electric vehicles increase their total
share over the next few years? For example, just-auto believes through its
three forecast scenarios, that conventional (' full' or power-split) hybrids
such as the archtetypal Toyota Prius will represent anything between 3% and 8%
of global light vehicle production by 2015.
Plug-in vehicles will take a much lower share, split among: pure
battery-electrics (with ranges of up to 200 miles); plug-in hybrids (PHEVs);
and extended-range EVs (' series' hybrids).
This report provides production volume estimates and percentage market shares
from 2008 to 2015 for hybrid and plug-in technologies across three scenarios:
"battery skeptical"; "moderate"; and "uber-green".
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