GSK's Cervarix - a future blockbuster of 2007

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. An Introduction to cancer Vaccines

• 2.1. Cancer incidence is on the increase
  • 2.1.1. The most common cancers
  • 2.1.2. Worldwide variation in cancer incidence and mortality
• 2.2. Cancer Biology
• 2.3. Infection, viruses and cancer
  • 2.3.1. Human papilloma virus
  • 2.3.2. Hepatitis viruses
  • 2.3.3. Epstein-Barr virus
  • 2.3.4. Human T-cell leukaemia virus
  • 2.3.5. Helicobactor pylori
  • 2.3.6. HIV
• 2.4. Prophylactic vaccines in the prevention of cancer
  • 2.4.1. Types of prophylactic vaccines
• 2.5. The immune system and cancer
  • 2.5.1. Tumour associated antigens
• 2.6. Therapeutic vaccines in the treatment of cancer
• 2.7. Types of therapeutic cancer vaccines, personalised versus generalised cancer vaccines
  • 2.7.1. Whole-cell vaccines
  • 2.7.2. Gene modified cancer vaccines
  • 2.7.3. Dendritic cell cancer vaccines
  • 2.7.4. Peptide cancer vaccines
  • 2.7.5. Bacterial vector vaccines
  • 2.7.6. Heat-shock protein vaccines
  • 2.7.7. Viral vector vaccines
  • 2.7.8. DNA vaccines
• 2.8. Could therapeutic vaccines provide a universal cure for cancer?
  • 2.8.1. Cancer vaccines and telomerase
  • 2.8.2. Cancer vaccines and metastasis
• 2.9. Summary

3. Demand analysis and forecasts of the world prophylactic cancer vaccines market 2006-2011

• 3.1. Key players in the prophylactic cancer vaccine market
  • 3.1.1. GSK dominates the HBV vaccine market
  • 3.1.2. Merck beat GSK in the race to launch the first cervical cancer vaccine
• 3.2 The world market for prophylactic cancer vaccines
• 3.3. The world market for hepatitis vaccines
  • 3.3.1. The American market for hepatitis B vaccines
  • 3.3.2. The European market for hepatitis B vaccines
  • 3.3.3. The developing world market for hepatitis B vaccines
  • 3.3.4. EngerixB is the biggest selling hepatitis B vaccine on the market
  • 3.3.5. Other HBV vaccines on the market
  • 3.3.6. Heplisav, predicted to be launched in 2009, will command a share of the market
• 3.4. Forecast of world sales of HBV vaccines 2007-2012
  • 3.4.1. Engerix B will lose its hold on the market over the forecast period
  • 3.4.2. The HBV market in 2012
• 3.5. The world market for HPV vaccines
  • 3.5.1. The American market for HPV vaccines
  • 3.5.2. The European market for HPV vaccines
  • 3.5.3. Other markets for HPV vaccines
• 3.6. Forecast of world sales of HPV vaccines 2007-2012
  • 3.6.1. Early sales of Gardasil are promising
  • 3.6.2. Gardasil faces challenges from Cervarix and cultural barriers to obtain maximum potential sales of HPV vaccines
  • 3.6.3. Gardasil will dominate the HPV market over the forecast period 2007-2012
• 3.7. HPV vaccines will emerge to dominate the prophylactic cancer vaccine market by 20012
• 3.8. Summary

4. The world market for therapeutic cancer vaccines

• 4.1. Key players in therapeutic cancer vaccines
  • 4.1.1. AVAX Technologies and M-Vax
  • 4.1.2. Intracel is seeking worldwide market approval for OncoVAX
  • 4.1.3. Corixa and Melacine, a cautionary tale
  • 4.1.4. Provenge could soon capitalise on the large prostate cancer market
  • 4.1.5. TroVax is set to be the first allogeneic cancer vaccine to obtain a US license
  • 4.1.6. The predicted therapeutic cancer vaccine market in 2012
• 4.2. The world market for cancer therapies
  • 4.2.1. Biological therapies have made a mark on the cancer therapy market
• 4.3. Is there a place for cancer vaccines in the cancer therapy market?
  • 4.3.1. The potential market for Provenge
  • 4.3.2. The potential market for TroVax
  • 4.3.3. The potential market for M-Vax
  • 4.3.4. The potential market for OncoVax
• 4.4. Summary

5. Issues affecting the cancer vaccines market

• 5.1. Issues affecting the prophylactic cancer vaccine market
  • 5.1.1. HPV and HBV vaccines will continue to make up the prophylactic cancer vaccine market
  • 5.1.2. Public opinion and pricing may restrict the potential of prophylactic cancer vaccines
• 5.2. Issues affecting the therapeutic cancer vaccine market
  • 5.2.1. Large potential markets for therapeutic cancer vaccines
  • 5.2.2. Can therapeutic cancer vaccines prove their worth?
  • 5.2.2. Can therapeutic cancer vaccines succeed- finding the right partner could be the key
  • 5.2.3. Should you get involved in this emerging market?
• 5.3. Summary

6. The cancer vaccines pipeline

• 6.1. The prophylactic cancer vaccines pipeline
• 6.2. Overview of the therapeutic cancer vaccine pipeline
• 6.3. Autologous therapeutic cancer vaccines in phase III trials
• 6.4. Allogeneic therapeutic cancer vaccines in phase III trials
  • 6.4.1. Could Pharmexa have the key to a generalised cancer vaccine?
    • 6.4.1.1. Geron challenges Pharmexa’s patents on telomerase vaccines
  • 6.4.2. GVAX
  • 6.4.3. PANVAC-VF
  • 6.4.4. Alloverctin7
  • 6.4.5. Stimuvax
• 6.5 Therapeutic cancer vaccines in phase II
  • 6.5.1. Advaxis and live listeria vaccines
  • 6.5.2. Trangene
• 6.6. Big companies get a foothold by buying into the market or forming alliances
  • 6.6.1. GSK and The Ludgwig Institute for Cancer Research
  • 6.6.2. Merck KGaA and SurvacApS
  • 6.6.3. Merck & co buys into potential telomerase and DNA vaccine market
  • 6.6.4. Sanofi-Aventis and Agensys, Inc.
• 6.7. The adjuvant market
• 6.8. Summary

7. Conclusion

List of Tables

• Table 2.1. The most common cancers worldwide by cancer site
• Table 2.2. Rates of common cancers in developed and developing nations
• Table 2.3. Types of prophylactic cancer vaccines
• Table 2.4. Types of autolotgous and allogeneic cancer vaccines being developed
• Table 3.1. Prophylactic cancer vaccines currently on the market
• Table 3.2. World market for main HBV vaccines 2007-2012
• Table 3.3. Sales forecast for main HBV vaccines 2007-2012
• Table 3.4. World wide population of women aged 11-26
• Table 3.5. The market for HPV vaccines 2007-2012
• Table 3.6. Revenue forecasts for Gardasil and Cervarix 2007-2012
• Table 4.1. Therapeutic cancer vaccines with licenses or predicted to obtain them within the forecast period
• Table 4.2. Top selling cancer therapies in 2005
• Table 5.1. A SWOT chart for the prophylactic cancer vaccines market
• Table 5.2. A SWOT chart for the cancer vaccines market
• Table 6.1. Prophylactic cancer vaccines in development
• Table 6.2. Therapeutic cancer vaccines in phase III trials
• Table 6.3. Therapeutic cancer vaccines in phase II trials
• Table 6.4. Pharmexa’s therapeutic cancer vaccines in development
• Table 6.5. Collaborations, licenses and acquisitions in therapeutic cancer vaccines

List of Figures

• Figure 2.1. Incidence of and mortality of the most common cancers worldwide
• Figure 2.2. Incidence of and mortality from the most common male cancers
• Figure 2.3. Incidence of and mortality from the most common female cancers
• Figure 2.4. Rates of cancer incidence and mortality in developed nations
• Figure 2.5. Rates of cancer incidence and mortality in developing nations
• Figure 3.1. Company share of the prophylactic cancer vaccine market in 2005
• Figure 3.2. The world market for hepatitis vaccines in 2005
• Figure 3.3. 2005 market share of the main HBV vaccine market
• Figure 3.4. Sales forecast for EngerixB 2007-2012
• Figure 3.5. Sales forecast for Twinrix 2007-2012
• Figure 3.6. Sales forecast for Recombivax HB 2007-2012
• Figure 3.7. Comparison of the sales forecast for main HBV vaccines 2007-2012
• Figure 3.8. Comparison of growth rates of the main HBV vaccines
• Figure 3.9. The predicted market share of the main HBV vaccines in 2012
• Figure 3.10. Estimated number of girls and women aged 11 and aged 11-26
• Figure 3.11. Forecast for revenue of HPV vaccines 2007-2012
• Figure 3.12. Market share of the HPV vaccine market 2007-2012
• Figure 3.13. Predicted market share of the prophylactic cancer vaccines market in 2012
• Figure 4.1. Predicted launch dates of cancer vaccines 2007-2012
• Figure 4.2. Top selling cancer therapies in 2005
• Figure 6.1. Types of cancer vaccines in development
• Figure 6.2. Cancers for which therapeutic vaccines are being developed