Fixed-Mobile Convergence Market Analysis 2008

Table of Contents

Chapter - 1

1. Introduction

• 1.1 Executive summary
  • Figure 1: Benefits of convergence for consumers
  • Chart 1: BT traditional and new wave revenue growth
• 1.2 What is Convergence?
• 1.3 Focus of this report

Chapter - 2

2. Fixed to mobile substitution

• 2.1 An increasingly mobile world
  • Chart 2: Global mobile vs. fixed line growth
  • Chart 3: Mobile only households in Europe
  • Chart 4: Opinion of the main benefits of mobile phones within the EU 27
  • Chart 5: Telephony access in the UK, France, Germany and Italy
  • 2.1.1 Defining substitution
    • Chart 6: World mobile subscribers
    • Table 1: Mobile only access in EU 27
    • Chart 7: EU 25 telephony access chart
• 2.2 Fixed and mobile traffic trends
  • 2.2.1 VoIP impact in the fixed and mobile trend
  • 2.2.2 Geographical trends
  • 2.2.3 Long distinct and the US experience
    • Chart 8: International call minutes from the UK
• 2.3 Revenues are shifting towards mobile networks
• 2.4 Fixed-to-mobile substitution drivers
  • Chart 9: Wireline growth 9 month YoY 2006-2007
  • Chart 10: Wireline growth Q3 2006-2007
  • Chart 11: Fixed and mobile penetration in UK homes
• 2.5 Bundling
  • 2.5.1 Bundled service packages: Mobile operators
    • 2.5.1.1 Drivers and benefits of service bundles
    • 2.5.1.2 Integrating Wi-Fi with WWAN
• 2.6 Barriers to displacement
• 2.7 Is mobile traffic competitive or complementary to wireline?
• 2.8 Attitudes and preferences of enterprise users
• 2.9 Price competition
• 2.10 Case study: BT Fusion Mobile UK
  • 2.10.1 BT attempts to fight fixed-to-mobile substitution with convergence phone
  • 2.10.2 The pros and cons of BT' s strategy
    • 2.10.2.3 The positives
    • 2.10.2.4 The weaknesses
  • Chart 12: BT market share of international calls 2005-2007
    • 2.10.2.5 Market impact
• 2.11 Fixed-line operator strategies for countering falling revenues
  • 2.11.2 Deploying internet services
  • 2.11.3 Flat rate offers
  • 2.11.4 Bundled service packages
  • 2.11.5 New handset designs and applications
  • 2.11.6 Exploiting indoor cellular shortcomings
  • 2.11.7 Full service integration

Chapter - 3

3. Fixed/mobile convergence

• Table 2 UMA handsets
• 3.1 Different forms of convergence
  • 3.1.1 Full convergence
• 3.2 Drivers of convergence
  • 3.2.1 Boosting voice usage
  • 3.2.2 Differentiation
  • 3.2.3 Mobile market entry
    • Figure 2: Drivers and barriers to convergence
  • 3.2.4 CapEx and OpEx savings
  • 3.2.5 Broadband and WLAN growth
  • 3.2.6 Demand side drivers
• 3.3 Barriers
  • 3.3.1 Technology
  • 3.3.2 Handsets
  • 3.3.3 Regulatory environment
  • 3.3.4 Incumbent dominance and organisational structures
  • 3.3.5 End-user inertia
  • 3.3.6 Declining mobile costs
• 3.4 Convergence will increase the battle for customer ownership
• 3.5 Voice and data integration
  • 3.5.1 Converged services
• 3.6 How fixed/mobile convergence works
• 3.7 Implementing FMC services
  • Chart 13: North America mobile subscribers
• 3.8 Early incarnations of FMC
  • 3.8.1 TDC' s Duet
  • 3.8.2 BT' s Onephone
  • 3.8.3 Dual mode DECT/GSM handsets
  • 3.8.4 O2 Genion
• 3.9 The FMCA initiative
• 3.10 Mobile handset convenience over the fixed network
• 3.11 Is there demand for FMC?
  • 3.11.1 Strong signals for FMC among corporates
  • 3.11.2 Lack of FMC success in the UK
• 3.12 Access technologies Bluetooth, Wi-Fi and Wimax
• 3.13 The impact of VoIP
  • 3.13.1 VoIP as an enabler of convergence
  • 3.13.2 VoIP and applications convergence
  • 3.13.3 VoIP enables new entrants to compete
  • 3.13.4 VoIP will help fixed telecos fight against substitution
• 3.14 Chapter conclusions

Chapter - 4

4. Convergence phone analysis

• 4.1 Convergence phone overview
• 4.2 Operational structure
  • 4.2.1 Telecom Italia
  • 4.2.2 France Telecom
  • 4.2.3 BT
• 4.3 The Unica service
  • Chart 14: Telecom Italia fixed and mobile connections in Italy 9 month YOY comparison
  • 4.3.1 Telecom Italia Unica
    • 4.3.1.1 A positive start
    • 4.3.1.2 Subscriptions capped
    • 4.3.1.3 Target markets
    • 4.3.1.4 Recent company developments
    • 4.3.1.5 Company initiatives
    • 4.3.1.6 Competitive environment
      • 4.3.1.6.1 Substitution in Europe
      • 4.3.6.1.2 Mobile call termination rates
    • 4.3.1.7 Vodafone
    • 4.3.1.8 Lack of broadband penetration
    • 4.3.1.9 The case for further convergence for Telecom Italia
• 4.4 France Telecom/Orange Unique/Unik
  • 4.4.1 How it works
  • 4.4.3 Limitations of device
  • 4.4.4 Target markets
  • 4.4.5 Market impact
  • 4.4.6 Company initiatives
    • 4.3.1.6 Competitive environment
      • 4.3.1.6.1 Substitution in Europe
      • 4.3.6.1.2 Mobile call termination rates
    • 4.3.7.1 Vodafone
    • 4.3.8.1 Lack of broadband penetration
    • 4.3.1.9 The case for further convergence for Telecom Italia
• 4.4 France Telecom/Orange Unik/Unique
  • 4.4.1 How it works
  • 4.4.2 Limitations of device
  • 4.4.3 Target markets
  • 4.4.4 Market impact
  • 4.4.5 Company initiatives
• 4.5 UMA
  • 4.5.1 How UMA works
    • Table 2: UMA operators
    • Figure 3: How UMA works
  • 4.5.2 Bluetooth/Wi-Fi/cellular hand-over
  • 4.5.3 UMA standardisation is critical for FMC success
  • 4.5.4 The role of the FMCA
    • Table 3: FMCA members
  • 4.5.5 FMCA' s strengths and weaknesses
  • 4.5.6 Interoperability
  • 4.5.7 Competition for the future of UMA
• 4.6 Femtocells
• 4.7 BT Office Anywhere
  • Chart 15: BT year end revenue 2000-2006
  • Chart 16: New wave as % of BT' s total revenue
  • 4.7.1 Competitive acumen of BT Office Anywhere
  • 4.7.2 Target market
    • 4.7.3.1 “New wave”
• 4.8 UMA handsets
  • 4.8.1 Motorola
  • 4.8.2 Ericsson
• 4.9 Device convergence
  • 4.9.1 Nokia N800
  • 4.9.2 Nokia N95 vs. the iPhone
  • 4.9.3 Recent developments in Nokia
    • 4.9.3.1 Collaboration with Telecom Italia
    • 4.9.3.2 Nokia trials with O2' s digital wallets
• 4.10 Skypephone
• 4.11 Convergence goals
• 4.12 The end point of convergence plans
• 4.13 Business and enterprise users
• 4.14 Mobile professionals over 45
• 4.15 Consumers
• 4.16 Youth market (young adults and children)
• 4.17 Issues to consider and hurdles to overcome
• 4.18 Quad play
• 4.19 Broadband penetration
• 4.20 Billing
• 4.21 Regulatory hurdles
• 4.22 Marketing convergence
• 4.23 Lessons from Fusion Mobile
• 4.24 Ann phone service
• 4.25 Other global FMCA initiatives
• 4.26 Forecasts
  • Table 4: SWOTs of a selection of convergence phones from Europe and US

Chapter - 5

5. Conclusions and recommendations

• 5.1 Fixed and mobile operators recommendations
• 5.2 Vendor recommendations
• 5.3 Enterprise recommendations

Companies mentioned in this report include:

• 3
• AGCOM
• Alcatel
• Alcatel Lucent
• Alltel
• Apple
• AT&T
• AT&T Mobility
• Barclaycard
• Brazil Telecom
• BT
• Carphone Warehouse
• Centrica
• China Telecom
• Cincinnati Bell
• Cingular Wireless (now AT&T)
• Claro
• Deutsche Telekom
• eBay
• European Commission
• EU
• FMCA
• France Telecom
• Kineto Wireless
• Korea Telecom
• KPN
• London underground
• Microsoft
• Motorola
• NetCom
• Nokia
• Nokia Siemens
• Nortel Networks
• O2
• Ofcom
• Olimpia
• Orange
• PT
• Palm Treo
• Puerto Rico telephone
• Rogers wireless
• Samsung
• Saunalahti
• Sky broadband
• Skype
• Sony Ericsson
• Swisscom
• TDC
• Talk Talk
• Tele2
• Telephone and Data Systems
• Telecom Italia
• Telefonica
• TeliaSonera
• Timco.Ltd
• T-Mobile
• Transport for London
• UMA consortium
• Unstrung news
• Verizon
• Virgin
• Visa Europe
• Vodafone
• Vonage
• Vyke
• Windows Mobile