Global Antivirals Market Analysis & Forecasts 2008-2023

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary

• 1.1 Aims of This Report
• 1.2 A Brief Overview of the Chapters

2 Introduction

• 2.1 What is a Virus?
• 2.2 History of Virology
  • 2.2.1 Origin of Viruses
  • 2.2.2 Historical Developments in Virology
• 2.3 Classification of Viruses
  • 2.3.1 DNA Viruses
  • 2.3.2 RNA Viruses
  • 2.3.3 Reverse Transcribing Viruses
• 2.4 Introduction to Viral Infections
  • 2.4.1 Viral Life Cycle
  • 2.4.2 Intrinsic Human Defences against Virus
• 2.5 How Do Antivirals Work?
  • 2.5.1 Approach to Life Cycle Management
  • 2.5.1.1 Before Cell Entry
  • 2.5.1.2 During Viral Synthesis
  • 2.5.1.3 Release Phase
  • 2.5.2 Immune System Modulating
• 2.6 Antivirals Battle Highly Mutational Viral Genomes
• 2.7 The World Anti-Infective Market
  • 2.7.1 Market Shares

3 The Global Market for Anti-Viral Drugs, 2008-2023

• 3.1 The Global Anti-Viral Market Generated High Revenues in 2007
  • 3.1.1 Leading Segments in the Global Anti-Viral Market
  • 3.1.2 Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors, Immunoglobulin, Protease Inhibitors and Vaccine Segments
• 3.2 Global Anti-Viral Market Forecast, 2008-2023
• 3.3 Global Anti-Viral Market by Disease Area, 2008-2023
• 3.4 The Rise of the Hepatitis Segment from 2008 to 2013
• 3.5 The HIV Market Impeded by Patent Issues
  • 3.5.1 Anti-HIV Agents Facing Looming Patent Expiries
  • 3.5.2 Controversy Surrounding Patent Rights
• 3.6 The Influenza Segment Growth is Hampered by Conflicts
• 3.7 The Global Anti-Viral Market Will Undergo Shift
• 3.8 Leading Anti-Viral Brands and Forecast, 2008-2023
  • 3.8.1 Will Tamiflu Retain its Leadership Position?
  • 3.8.2 Combination Therapy Deemed Most Effective
  • 3.8.3 Pegasys-Ribavirin Combination Therapy
  • 3.8.4 Atripla - the Way Forward?
• 3.9 The Anti-Viral Market and Investment Activities

4 Factors Affecting the World Anti-Viral Market, 2008-2023

• 4.1 SWOT Analysis of the Anti-Viral Market
• 4.2 There is Much Reason for Optimism in the Anti-Viral Market
  • 4.2.1 Drug Resistance is a Major Concern, but Stimulates Research Activity
  • 4.2.2 Chronic Indications Ensure Long-Term Demand for Antivirals
  • 4.2.3 Outbreaks of Viral Infections Give Rise to Major Global Public Health Crises
  • 4.2.4 Low Diagnostic Rate Means that the Majority of Patients Are Unaware of Their Infections
• 4.3 Current Antiviral Treatments Marred by High Toxicity and Low Patient Compliance
• 4.4 The Threat of Bio-generic Penetration
  • 4.4.1 Looming Patent Expiry Threatens Some Leading Brands
  • 4.4.2 Does the Pipeline Have Enough Potential to Replace the Aging Brands?
• 4.5 Variability of Novel Targets and Mechanisms
• 4.6 Investment and Commercial Obstacles
  • 4.6.1 Low Prevalence of Treatable Viral Diseases
  • 4.6.2 Low Profitability from the Developing Countries
• 4.7 The Market Needs to Overcome Economic and Political Obstacles to Gain Access to Patients in Need
  • 4.7.1 Will the Expanding Patient Population Drive Market Growth? A Case Study of the HIV Market
  • 4.7.2 Expensiveness of Antiviral Treatments Forces Market Exclusivity and Limits Market Growth
  • 4.7.3 Conjoint Effort from the Public and Private Domains to Achieve Greater Accessibility is a Positive Step Forward
• 4.8 How Will the Manufacturers Answer to Public Demands for Enhancing Treatment Availability?
  • 4.8.1 Production Rate Unable to Meet Demands
  • 4.8.2 The Controversy Towards Overriding Patent Rights
• 4.9 Are Vaccines Friends or Foes to the Antiviral Market?

5 Leading Companies in the Antiviral Market, 2008-2023

• 5.1 GSK, Roche, Merck, Gilead Sciences and Bristol-Myers Squibb
• 5.2 Is GSK' s Market Dominance in Jeopardy?
• 5.3 Roche' s Pipeline
• 5.4 What is Merck' s Competitive Edge in the Antiviral Market?
• 5.5 Gilead Sciences and Bristol-Myers Squibb Carve into the HIV Market

6 Leading Antiviral Brands, Forecasts and Analyses, 2008-2023

• 6.1 Top 15 Marketed Antivirals of 2007
• 6.2 Tamiflu
• 6.3 Gardasil
• 6.4 Valtrex
• 6.5 Pegasys
• 6.6 Truvada
• 6.7 Varivax
• 6.8 Synagis
• 6.9 Reyataz
• 6.10 Kaletra
• 6.11 Sustiva
• 6.12 Atripla
• 6.13 Combivir
• 6.14 Peg-Intron
• 6.15 Epzicom
• 6.16 Viread

7 Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets, Forecasts and Analysis, 2008-2023

• 7.1 Sales of Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets in 2007
• 7.2 Market Performance of Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Nations, 2008-2023
• 7.3 Will the US Retain Dominance?
• 7.4 Other Industrialised Countries to Undergo Steady Growth
• 7.5 How Will the Leading Developing Countries Fare in the Global Antivirals Market?

8 Promising Anti-Viral Technologies and Pipeline Developments

• 8.1 HIV Pipeline Development
  • 8.1.1 Research Direction
  • 8.1.2 Viral Enzymes as Targets
  • 8.1.3 NNRTI
  • 8.1.3.1 Intelence
  • 8.1.3.2 Rilpivirine
  • 8.1.4 NRTI
  • 8.1.4.1 Apricitabine
  • 8.1.5 Host Proteins as Targets
  • 8.1.6 Viral-Entry Inhibitors: Attachment, Entry and Fusion Inhibitors
  • 8.1.6.1 Selzentry/Celsentri
  • 8.1.6.2 Vicriviroc
  • 8.1.7 Integrase Inhibitors
  • 8.1.7.1 Isentress
  • 8.1.7.2 Elvitegravir
  • 8.1.8 Maturation Inhibitors
  • 8.1.8.1 Bevirimat
• 8.2 Hepatitis Pipeline Development
  • 8.2.1 Research Direction
  • 8.2.2 Interferons
  • 8.2.2.1 Albuferon
  • 8.2.3 NS3 Protease Inhibitors
  • 8.2.3.1 Telaprevir
  • 8.2.3.2 Boceprevir
  • 8.2.4 Polymerase Inhibitors
  • 8.2.4.1 R7128
• 8.3 Novel Technologies Head the Next Wave of Anti-Viral Drug Exploration
  • 8.3.1 Could Monoclonal Antibodies Surpass the Dominant Small-Molecules?
  • 8.3.2 RNA Interference Technology Raises Investment Interest

9 Interviews with Relevant Experts - Discussion of Current and Future Trends

• 9.1 Interview 1: Professor Erik De Clercq, Emeritus Professor, Rega Institute for Medical Research, K.U. Leuven, Belgium.
  • 9.1.1 Promising Sub-Markets
  • 9.1.2 Market Drivers and Restraints
  • 9.1.3 Promising R&D Programmes
  • 9.1.4 Market Direction
• 9.2 Interview 2: Dr. Michael Kinch, VP, Research and Development, Functional Genetics, Maryland, USA
  • 9.2.1 Promising Sub-Markets
  • 9.2.2 Market Drivers and Restraints
  • 9.2.3 Arguments for Host-Oriented Therapeutic Approach
  • 9.2.4 Biologicals Versus Small Molecules

10 Conclusions

• 10.1 Excitement Surrounds the Antivirals Market
• 10.2 The Next Market Leader
• 10.3 Hepatitis Segment Drives Innovative Antiviral Research
• 10.4 Pipeline Development
• 10.5 The Future of Antivirals

List of Tables

• Table 2.1, Historical Developments in Virology
• Table 2.2, Categorisation of Clinically Significant Viruses
• Table 2.3, The World Anti-Infective Market, Sales ($bn), 12 months to Q1 2008
• Table 3.1, Antiviral Therapies Blockbusters, Sales ($m) and Market Share (%), 2007
• Table 3.2, Global Anti-Viral Market, Sales ($bn) and Growth (%), 2006-2013, 2018, 2023
• Table 3.3, Global Antiviral Market Breakdown by Disease Area, 2006 and 2007
• Table 3.4, Global Anti-Viral Market by Disease Area, Sales ($bn) and Annual Growth (%), 2006-2013
• Table 3.5, Market Performance of the Hepatitis Segment, Sales ($bn), Annual Growth (%), CAGR (%) and Market Share (%), 2008-2013, 2018 and 2023
• Table 3.6, Marketed Antiviral Therapies for HIV/AIDS, Sales ($m), 2007
• Table 3.7, Market Performance of the HIV Segment, Sales ($bn), Annual Growth (%), CAGR (%) and Market Share (%), 2008-2013, 2018 and 2023
• Table 3.8, Market Performance of the Influenza Segment, Sales ($bn), Annual Growth (%), CAGR (%) and Market Share (%), 2008-2013, 2018 and 2023
• Table 3.9, Global Anti-Viral Market by Disease Area, CAGR (%) and Market Share (%), 2007, 2013, 2018 and 2023
• Table 3.10, Top 15 Anti-Viral Brands, Sales ($m) and Growth (%), 2007
• Table 3.11, Top 15 Anti-Viral Brands, Sales ($m) and Growth (%), 2006-2013
• Table 4.1, SWOT Analysis of the Antiviral Market, 2008
• Table 4.2, Antivirals with Recent or Imminent Patent Expiration
• Table 4.3, Antiviral Patents Approved in the United States
• Table 5.1, Leading Companies in the Antiviral Market, Sales ($bn), 2007
• Table 6.1, Sales of Tamiflu ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 6.2, Sales of Gardasil ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 6.3, Sales of Valtrex ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 6.4, Sales of Pegasys ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 6.5, Sales of Truvada ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 6.6, Sales of Varivax ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 6.7, Sales of Synagis ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 6.8, Sales of Reyataz ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 6.9, Sales of Kaletra ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 6.10, Sales of Sustiva ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 6.11, Sales of Atripla ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 6.12, Sales of Combivir ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 6.13, Sales of Peg-Intron ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 6.14, Sales of Epzicom ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 6.15, Sales of Viread ($m), 2006-2013
• Table 7.1, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets, Sales ($), Market Share (%) and Annual Growth (%), 2007
• Table 7.2, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets, Sales ($m), 2007-2013, 2018, 2023
• Table 7.3, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets, Market Share (%) and CAGR (%), 2007 and 2013
• Table 8.1, HIV Life Cycle and Potential Targets for Antiretrovirals
• Table 8.2, Selected Viral Enzymes Inhibitors in Late Clinical Development
• Table 8.3, Selected Entry Inhibitors in Late Clinical Development
• Table 8.4, Selected Integrase Inhibitors in Late Clinical Development
• Table 8.5, Selected Interferons in Late Stage Development
• Table 8.6, Selected NS3 Protease Inhibitors in Late Clinical Development
• Table 8.7, Selected Polymerase Inhibitors in Late Clinical Development
• Table 8.8, Commercial Development of Antiviral mAbs
• Table 10.1, Global Anti-Viral Market, Sales ($bn) and Growth (%), 2006-2013, 2018, 2023
• Table 10.2, Antiviral Therapies Blockbusters, Sales ($m) and Market Share (%), 2007

List of Figures

• Figure 2.1, Basic Structures of the Influenza Virus
• Figure 2.2, Life Cycle of a Typical RNA Virus
• Figure 2.3, The World Anti-Infective Market, Sales ($bn), 12 months to Q1 2008
• Figure 2.4, The World Anti-Infective Market, Market Share (%), 12 months to Q1 2008
• Figure 3.1, Leading Disease Areas in the Anti-Viral Market, Sales ($bn), 2007
• Figure 3.2, Leading Drug Classes in the Anti-Viral Market, Sales 2007 ($bn)
• Figure 3.3, Global Anti-Viral Market Sales ($m), 2006-2013
• Figure 3.4, Global Antiviral Market by Disease Area, Market Share (%), 2007
• Figure 3.5, Global Anti-Viral Market by Disease Area, Sales ($m), 2006-2013
• Figure 3.6, Global Hepatitis Market, Sales ($bn), 2006-2023
• Figure 3.7, Global HIV Market, Sales ($bn), 2006-2023
• Figure 3.8, Global Influenza Market, Sales ($bn), 2006-2023
• Figure 3.9, Global Antiviral Market by Disease Area, Market Share (%), 2013
• Figure 3.10, Market Share of the Leading Anti-Viral Drugs (%), 2007
• Figure 5.1, Leading Companies in the Antiviral Market, Market Share (%), 2007
• Figure 6.1, Top 15 Marketed Antiviral Therapies, Sales ($m), 2007
• Figure 6.2, Top 15 Marketed Antiviral Therapies, Annual Growth (%), 2007
• Figure 6.3, Sales of Tamiflu ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 6.4, Sales of Gardasil ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 6.5, Sales of Valtrex ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 6.6, Sales of Pegasys ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 6.7, Sales of Truvada ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 6.8, Sales of Varivax ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 6.9, Sales of Synagis ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 6.10, Sales of Reyataz ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 6.11, Sales of Kaletra ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 6.12, Sales of Sustiva ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 6.13, Sales of Atripla ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 6.14, Sales of Combivir ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 6.15, Sales of Peg-Intron ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 6.16, Sales of Epzicom ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 6.17, Sales of Viread ($m), 2006-2023
• Figure 7.1, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets, Sales ($m), 2007
• Figure 7.2, Antivirals in the Leading Pharmaceutical Markets, Market Share (%), 2007
• Figure 7.3, Antivirals in the US Market, Sales ($m), 2008-2013
• Figure 7.4, Antivirals in Other Leading Industrialised Countries, Sales ($m), 2008-2013
• Figure 7.5, Antivirals in China and India, Sales ($m), 2008-2013

Companies listed:

• Abbott
• AIDS Drug Assistance Programme
• Alnylam Pharmaceutical
• AnorMed
• AstraZeneca
• Aurobindo
• Avexa
• Benitec
• Bill and Melinda gates Foundation
• Biolex Therapeutics
• Boehringer Ingelheim
• Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS)
• Cipla
• Genentech
• Genzyme
• Gilead Sciences
• Glaxo Wellcome
• GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
• Hoffmann-La Roche
• Human Genome Sciences
• Incyte
• Intarcia
• International AIDS Vaccine Initiative (NIAID)
• Japan Tobacco
• Johnson and Johnson
• Jointed United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS)
• MedImmune
• Medivir
• Merck
• Mitsubishi
• Monogram Biosciences
• Novartis
• OctoPlus
• Panacos
• Pfizer
• Pharmaplaz
• Pharmasset Inc
• Progenics
• Rega Institute for Medical Research
• Samaritan
• Schering-Plough
• Tacere Therapeutics
• Teijin Pharma
• Tibotec
• Tibotec-Virco
• Trimeris
• US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
• US President' s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)
• Vertex Pharmaceuticals
• ViroChem Pharma
• World Bank
• World Health Organization (WHO)