The Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) Market 2009-2019

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. The Emergence of UAVs

• 2.1 Origins
• 2.2 UAVs in 21st Century Conflicts
• 2.3 Wider Battlefield Roles for UAVs
• 2.4 UAVs Becoming Essential to Military Operations
• 2.5 Components of a UAV System
  • 2.5.1 Air Segment
  • 2.5.2 Ground Segment
• 2.6 Mission Types and Design Characteristics
  • 2.6.1 Small UAVs
  • 2.6.2 Tactical UAVs
  • 2.6.3 Endurance UAVs
    • 2.6.3.1 Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE)
    • 2.6.3.2 High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE)
  • 2.6.4 Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs)
• 2.7 UAV Missions
• 2.8 US Mission Planning Assumptions
  • 2.8.1 Non-Aggressive Missions
  • 2.8.2 Aggressive Missions
• 2.9 New Technologies, New Missions

3. Challenges to UAV Development and Use

• 3.1 Costs
• 3.2 Survivability
• 3.3 Bandwidth Issues
• 3.4 New Engine Technologies
• 3.5 The Challenge of Urban Warfare
• 3.6 Operational Issues
• 3.7 Interoperability
• 3.8 Logistical Issues
• 3.9 Fuel and Battery Requirements
• 3.10 Integration into Controlled Airspace
• 3.11 Air Regulations Affect both Military and Civil UAVs
• 3.12 Civil UAVs Raise Air Safety Concerns
• 3.13 UAV Technology at a Watershed
• 3.14 Aerospace and Defence Industrial Issues
  • 3.14.1 Substitutability: Unmanned vs. Manned Aircraft
  • 3.14.2 Direct Substitution Unlikely
• 3.15 New Opportunities in a Competitive Market

4. The Global UAV Market

• 4.1 The Market Defined
• 4.2 Steady Growth Across UAV Submarkets
• 4.3 US is Dominant Developer and User of UAVs
• 4.4 Major European Powers Also Invest Heavily in UAVs

5. Leading Markets for UAVs

• 5.1 US
  • 5.1.1 Forecast for US UAV Market, 2009-19
  • 5.1.2 Key US UAV Programmes
    • 5.1.2.1 US Air Force
    • 5.1.2.2 US Army
    • 5.1.2.3 US Marine Corps
    • 5.1.2.4 US Navy
    • 5.1.2.5 Special Operations Command (SOCOM)
• 5.2 UK
  • 5.2.1 Forecast for UK UAV Market, 2009-19
  • 5.2.2 Key UK UAV Programmes
    • 5.2.2.1 Watchkeeper
    • 5.2.2.2 Hermes 450
    • 5.2.2.3 Reaper
    • 5.2.2.4 Desert Hawk
    • 5.2.2.5 Taranis
    • 5.2.2.6 Mantis
    • 5.2.2.7 Herti
• 5.3 France
  • 5.3.1 Forecast for French UAV Market, 2009-19
  • 5.3.2 Key French UAV Programmes
    • 5.3.2.1 Eagle-1 (SIDM)
    • 5.3.2.2 Tracker
    • 5.3.2.3 Neuron
    • 5.3.2.4 VTOL UAV
• 5.4 Germany
  • 5.4.1 Forecast for German UAV Market, 2009-19
  • 5.4.2 Key German UAV Programmes
    • 5.4.2.1 EuroHawk
    • 5.4.2.2 Reaper
    • 5.4.2.3 Fancopters
• 5.5 India
  • 5.5.1 Forecast for Indian UAV Market, 2009-19
  • 5.5.2 Key Indian UAV Programmes
    • 5.5.2.1 Heron
    • 5.5.2.2 Searcher
    • 5.5.2.3 Other Projects
• 5.6 Australia
  • 5.6.1 Forecast for Australian UAV Market, 2009-19
  • 5.6.2 Key Australian UAV Programmes
    • 5.6.2.1 JP-129 Replacement
    • 5.6.2.2 Scan Eagle
    • 5.6.2.3 Skylark
• 5.7 Japan
  • 5.7.1 Forecast for Japanese UAV Market, 2009-19
  • 5.7.2 Key Japanese UAV Programmes
    • 5.7.2.1 Domestic UAV Designs
    • 5.7.2.2 Rotary-wing UAVs
• 5.8 Italy
  • 5.8.1 Forecast for Italian UAV Market, 2009-19
  • 5.8.2 Key Italian UAV Programmes
    • 5.8.2.1 Reaper
    • 5.8.2.2 Predator
    • 5.8.2.3 Neuron
    • 5.8.2.4 Sky-X
• 5.9 Canada
  • 5.9.1 Forecast for Canadian UAV Market, 2009-19
  • 5.9.2 Key Canadian UAV Programmes
    • 5.9.2.1 JUSTAS
    • 5.9.2.2 Heron
    • 5.9.2.3 Scan Eagles
    • 5.9.2.4 Skylark Mini-UAV
    • 5.9.2.5 Silver Fox
    • 5.9.2.6 Sperwer
• 5.10 South Korea
  • 5.10.1 Forecast for South Korean UAV Market, 2009-19
  • 5.10.2 Key South Korean UAV Programmes
    • 5.10.2.1 Domestic MALE UAV
    • 5.10.2.2 Skylark
• 5.11 China
  • 5.11.1 Forecast for Chinese UAV Market, 2009-19
  • 5.11.2 Key Chinese UAV Programmes
    • 5.11.2.1 UAVs for ' Informationised Warfare'
    • 5.11.2.2 UCAV Designs
• 5.12 Russia
  • 5.12.1 Forecast for Russian UAV Market, 2009-19
  • 5.12.2 Key Russian UAV Programmes
    • 5.12.2.1 Russia Decides to Buy UAVs from Israel
    • 5.12.2.2 Domestic Programmes Not as Successful

6. Factors Affecting the UAV Market

• 6.1 Strengths of the UAV Market
  • 6.1.1 Keen Interest Among Military Forces
  • 6.1.2 UAVs Taking On Leading Battlefield Roles
  • 6.1.3 Persistent Surveillance is a Key Capability UAVs Can Provide
  • 6.1.4 There is a Vibrant UAV Industry
• 6.2 Weaknesses of the UAV Market
  • 6.2.1 Costs Related to Developing and Using UAVs May be Underestimated
  • 6.2.2 UAV Systems must also Cope with Evolving Military Requirements
  • 6.2.3 Challenges of Using UAVs
  • 6.2.4 Delays in Opening Access to Airspace Could Suppress Demand
• 6.3 Opportunities in the UAV Market
  • 6.3.1 Spending in UAVs Unlikely to Face Cuts
  • 6.3.2 Many Militaries are Moving to Incorporate UAVs in their Combat Doctrines
  • 6.3.3 Major Defence Contractors are Eager to Form Partnerships with Smaller Companies
  • 6.3.4 There is a Potentially Vast Market for Civil UAVs
• 6.4 Threats to the UAV Market
  • 6.4.1 Resistance from Proponents of Traditional Manned Aircraft
  • 6.4.2 Many Countries May Hold Off UAV Purchases Until Technologies Mature
  • 6.4.3 Subsystems for Complex Unmanned Aircraft such as UCAVs are Still Maturing
  • 6.4.4 Costs May Deter Some Countries from Buying UAVs

7. Expert Opinion

• 7.1 Thomas J Cassidy Jr, President, Aircraft Systems Group, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI)
  • 7.1.1 Focus of GA-ASI Programmes
  • 7.1.2 GA-ASI Markets
  • 7.1.3 Effect of Recession on UAV Demand
  • 7.1.4 Airspace Issues and UAVs
  • 7.1.5 Staying Ahead of Competition
  • 7.1.6 UAVs and Manned Aircraft
  • 7.1.7 Continuing Work in Maritime UAVs
• 7.2 Tommy Silberring, Manager of the Malat Division of Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI)
  • 7.2.1 UAV Acquisition to Grow
  • 7.2.2 Lessons Learned as a Pioneering UAV Company
  • 7.2.3 UAVs
  • 7.2.4 The ' F-16' of UAVs
  • 7.2.5 More Small UAVs
  • 7.2.6 UCAVs, Maritime UAVs Figure in the Future
  • 7.2.7 Airspace Issues Affect Civil Use of UAVs
  • 7.2.8 A Technological Leap in Mass Production
  • 7.2.9 Industry Consolidation
• 7.3 Nick Miller, Business Director for ISTAR and UAV Systems of Thales UK
  • 7.3.1 News on Watchkeeper and Related Thales Products
  • 7.3.2 Demand for UAVs Rises; Efforts Continue in Opening Airspace
  • 7.3.3 Key Developments, Needs in UAV Systems
  • 7.3.4 Consolidation of UAV Industry
  • 7.3.5 Combining Thales' s Sensors and UAVs
  • 7.3.6 Market for Maritime UAVs
  • 7.3.7 Future UCAVs
• 7.4 Patrick D Moneymaker, CEO of Proxy Aviation Systems.
  • 7.4.1 Uncertainty in Budgets
  • 7.4.2 Right Mix of UAVs is Maturing
  • 7.4.3 Challenges to UAV Development
  • 7.4.4 Challenges for Small Businesses in UAV Market
  • 7.4.5 Consolidation of UAV Industry
• 7.5 G A ' Black' Robertson, Managing Director of Blackbourne Wells Ltd.
  • 7.5.1 UAV Demand to Rise Despite Recession
  • 7.5.2 Challenges to UAV Development
  • 7.5.3 Nations Start to Embrace UAVs for Varied Roles
  • 7.5.4 Consolidation of UAV Industry
  • 7.5.5 UAV Contribution to ISR/ISTAR Ever Increasing
  • 7.5.6 UCAVs at Present and in the Future

8. Key Companies Involved in the UAV Market

• 8.1 AAI Corp
• 8.2 AeroVironment
• 8.3 Alenia Aeronautica
• 8.4 Aurora Flight Sciences
• 8.5 BAE Systems
• 8.6 Bell Helicopter
• 8.7 Boeing IDS
• 8.8 Dassault Aviation
• 8.9 EADS DS
• 8.10 Elbit Systems
• 8.11 EMT
• 8.12 General Atomics Aeronautics Systems Inc
• 8.13 Honeywell Engineering
• 8.14 Insitu
• 8.15 Israel Aerospace Industries
• 8.16 Lockheed Martin
• 8.17 Northrop Grumman Integrated Systems
• 8.18 Proxy Aviation Systems
• 8.19 Rheinmetall Defence Systems
• 8.20 Ruag Aerospace
• 8.21 Saab Aerosystems
• 8.22 Sagem Defense Securite

9. Conclusions

• 9.1 Key Drivers and Restraints
• 9.2 UAV Submarkets will Mostly See Growth
• 9.3 UAVs in High Demand Worldwide

List of Tables

• Table 4.1 World UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Table 4.2 World UAV Sales CAGR
• Table 4.3 World UAV Sales by Submarket, 2009-19
• Table 4.4 World UAV Sales CAGR by Submarket
• Table 4.5 UAV Sales and Share by Leading Markets: 2008, 2014, 2019
• Table 5.1 Leading Country Markets, UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Table 5.2 US UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Table 5.3 US UAV Sales CAGR
• Table 5.4 UK UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Table 5.5 UK UAV Sales CAGR
• Table 5.6 France UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Table 5.7 France UAV Sales CAGR
• Table 5.8 Germany UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Table 5.9 Germany UAV Sales CAGR
• Table 5.10 India UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Table 5.11 India UAV Sales CAGR
• Table 5.12 Australia UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Table 5.13 Australia UAV Sales CAGR
• Table 5.14 Japan UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Table 5.15 Japan UAV Sales CAGR
• Table 5.16 Italy UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Table 5.17 Italy UAV Sales CAGR
• Table 5.18 Canada UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Table 5.19 Canada UAV Sales CAGR
• Table 5.20 South Korea UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Table 5.21 South Korea UAV Sales CAGR
• Table 5.22 China UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Table 5.23 China UAV Sales CAGR
• Table 5.24 Russia UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Table 5.25 Russia UAV Sales CAGR
• Table 6.1 SWOT Analysis, UAV Market, 2009-19

List of Figures

• Figure 4.1 World UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Figure 4.2 World UAV Sales Forecast by Submarket, 2009-19
• Figure 4.3 Market Share of UAV Submarkets: 2008
• Figure 4.4 Market Share of UAV Submarkets: 2014
• Figure 4.5 Market Share of UAV Submarkets: 2019
• Figure 4.6 UAV Sales by Leading Country Markets, 2008
• Figure 4.7 UAV Sales by Leading Country Markets, 2014
• Figure 4.8 UAV Sales by Leading Country Markets, 2019
• Figure 5.1 US UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Figure 5.2 UK UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Figure 5.3 France UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Figure 5.4 Germany UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Figure 5.5 India UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Figure 5.6 Australia UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Figure 5.7 Japan UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Figure 5.8 Italy UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Figure 5.9 Canada UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Figure 5.10 South Korea UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Figure 5.11 China UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19
• Figure 5.12 Russia UAV Sales Forecast, 2009-19

Companies Mentioned in this Report

• AAI Corp
• Advanced Ceramics Research
• Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE) (India)
• Aeronautics Defence Systems
• Aerospatiale-Matra
• AeroVironment
• Airbus
• Alenia
• Aurora Flight Sciences
• BAE Systems
• Bell Helicopter
• Blackbourne Wells Ltd.
• Boeing
• IDS
• Construcciones
• Aeronauticas SA (CASA)
• CyberAero
• DaimlerChrysler Aerospace(DASA)
• Dassault Aviation
• Diehl
• BGT
• EAB
• EADS
• EADS CASA
• Elbit Systems
• EMT EuroHawk GmbH
• Fuji
• GE Aviation
• General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.(GA-ASI)
• General Dynamics
• General Motors
• Honeywell Engineering
• Insitu
• Irkut
• Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI)
• Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) MALAT Division
• Kawanda
• Korean Air
• Lockheed Martin MacDonald,
• Dettwiler and Associates (MDA)
• Megget Mil Design Bureau
• Northrop Grumman Corp.
• Oerlikon-Contraves Canada
• Protonex
• Proxy Aviation Systems
• Raytheon
• Qinetiq
• Rheinmetall Defence Systems
• Rolls-Royce
• Rotax
• Ruag Aerospace
• Ruag Ammotec
• Ruag Electronics
• Ruag Land Systems
• Ryan
• Saab Aerosystems
• Safran Group
• Sagem Defense Securite Schweizer
• Selex Galileo
• Selex Galileo Falco
• Sukhoi
• Survey Copter
• Swift Engineering
• Tadiran
• Textron
• Thales UK
• Tula Design Bureau
• UAS Dynamics
• Unmanned Tactical Systems (U-TacS)
• Yamaha