Abstract
"Although the biggest market growth is in new product areas such as 40-Gbps
WDM on the telco side and SFP+ and optical interconnects on the datacom side,
' legacy' products such as SONET/SDH transceivers have shown good staying
power, and we expect the downturn to make incremental customer upgrades using
existing products more attractive." Says Scott Schube, Senior Analyst and
Strategist, LightCounting. "As always, but especially in this environment,
transceiver vendors must strike the right balance between supporting legacy
products and investing in new R&D, and make sure to squeeze as much business
as possible out of already-shipping transceivers with sunk development costs."
LightCounting increases projections for 2009 transceiver sales. However, this
will still be an expected moderate decline compared to record sales seen in
2008. Improvements in the forecast are due to higher than expected sales of
transceivers by vendors focused on the Asian market.
Global transceiver sales were virtually flat in Q2 2009 after steep declines
in the previous two quarters. While this suggests that the market may have
rebounded, it is not close to the 20% rise in Q2 2008 sales from a seasonally
low Q1. Upward revision in the forecast assumes slight increase in Q3 and Q4
2009 sales, in accordance with guidance from suppliers and their customers.
Considering the uncertainty in the timing of a sustainable economic recovery,
we maintain a conservative 5% growth projection for 2010. The modest
transceiver market growth expected for 2010 is likely to be followed by a
period of double-digit growth in 2011-2013.
This 40-page comprehensive report presents historical data from 2006 to 2008
and a detailed market forecast through 2013 for SONET/SDH, Ethernet, Fibre
Channel, CWDM, DWDM, FTTx transceivers, Tunables, Active Optical Cables and
Optical Interconnects, sorted in over 120 product categories.
The sales data for 2006 to 2008 account for 30 transceiver vendors, including
more than 25 vendors that shared confidential sales data with LightCounting.
The market forecast for 2009 to 2013 is based on LightCounting' s model
correlating transceiver sales with network traffic growth and projected
subscribers of FTTx systems.
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