Abstract
“By 2015, traffic is expected to grow one-hundred-fold while operators
seek an equivalent reduction in the cost of bit transport,” says Roy
Rubenstein, director of research, LightCounting. “Optical technology
will play a key role in meeting such tough requirements as carriers tackle
operating costs and reduce the number of nodes they operate in the
network.”
The rise of optical will clearly be good news for transceiver vendors but they
face their own challenges. The burden of meeting such cost targets will fall
most heavily on them. Transceiver players must determine which technologies to
make in-house, when to apply photonic integration, and execute when partnering
to tackle costly technology developments such as 100Gbps.
Will transceiver players rise to the challenge and most importantly will they
be rewarded for their efforts?
This report presents historical data from 2005 to 2007 and a detailed market
forecast through 2011 for SONET/SDH, Ethernet, Fibre Channel, CWDM, DWDM, FTTx
transceivers, and optical interconnects, sorted in over 100 product
categories. The sales data for 2005 to 2007 account for sales among 33
transceiver vendors, including 23 vendors that shared confidential sales data
with LightCounting. The market forecast for 2008 to 2011 is based on a model
correlating transceiver sales with network traffic growth and projected
subscribers of FTTx systems.
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