OTT Video Services & Forecast--2008-2012: Best Practice, ROI, & ISTB Analysis

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 What is Over-the-Top Video (OTT) Compared with IPTV?
  • 1.1.1 Hybrid Services Are Becoming Popular in Various Global Regions
  • 1.1.2 Lean Back/Lean Forward?
  • 1.1.3 Mobility and Devices
• 1.2 Key Findings

2. Background on the Video Service Industry

• 2.1 Business Overview
  • 2.1.1 The Movie Business & “Release Windows”
  • 2.1.2 The TV Business
• 2.2 Failed OTT Businesses - Why Did They Fail?
  • 2.2.1 Movie Beam (1,800 Subscribers After 4 Years)
  • 2.2.2 Akimbo
• 2.3 Legal Issues
  • 2.3.1 Net Neutrality
  • 2.3.2 The Fair Use Doctrine
  • 2.3.3 The Digital Millennium Copyright Act
  • 2.3.4 Viacom' s Lawsuit Against Google, YouTube (U.S.)
  • 2.3.5 Pro-IP Act of 2007
  • 2.3.6 The Napster, Grokster Decisions

3. Architecture Overview

• 3.1 Wireless and Wireline - Home Networks
• 3.2 QoS/QoE - How Acquired and Maintained on OTT
• 3.3 Unicast vs. Multicast
• 3.4 Downloading, Progressive Downloading and Streaming
• 3.5 Traditional CDNs, P2P and P4P
• 3.6 Transcoders - And Why They Are Needed
• 3.7 Bandwidth (HD vs. SD) - How to Enable HD
• 3.8 ISTBs/Game Consoles
• 3.9 PC-centric IPTV Over Managed Networks
• 3.10 UI/EPG/Middleware - The Value of a Superb UI
• 3.11 Navigation Devices - Mice, Keyboards and Remotes

4. Business Models for OTT Service - What' s in it for the SPs?

• 4.1 Pure Models - Rent, Buy, Subscription, Ad Sponsored
  • 4.1.1 Rental OTT Models
  • 4.1.2 Purchase OTT Models
  • 4.1.3 Subscription OTT Models
  • 4.1.4 Ad Sponsored OTT Models
• 4.2 Mixed Source Models
  • 4.2.1 U.S. OTT Services (“Skinny” Basic) Cable/TiVo (SD Only)
  • 4.2.2 France OTT Service
  • 4.2.3 U.K. OTT Service
  • 4.2.4 Plan A: Internet + Over-the-Air (DTT) to the TV
  • 4.2.5 Plan B: Internet + Cable Using TiVo STB to the TV
  • 4.2.6 Plan C: DVD Rental + Internet
  • 4.2.7 Consumer Pricing Overview
• 4.3 OTT Consumer Service Ratings
• 4.4 Traditional VOD Content Models - Revenue Splits
• 4.5 Traditional DVD Business Models
• 4.6 Break-even Analysis for OTT Service (SP Perspective)
  • 4.6.1 Tier-1 SP Break-even Analysis
  • 4.6.2 Tier-2 Break-even Analysis
  • 4.6.3 Tier-3 Break-even Analysis
• 4.7 Case Study: Toledo Telephone and VUDU
  • 4.7.1 Conclusion

5. Forecasts

• 5.1 What Do We Know?
• 5.2 Global Forecasts
• 5.3 Cable/Satellite/IPTV Operators
• 5.4 Cinema Theater Business
• 5.5 DVD Sales - U.S.
• 5.6 Western Europe DVD Sales
• 5.7 U.S. Online Video
• 5.8 Online Video Ad Revenue
• 5.9 Internet Set-top Box (ISTB) & OTT Service Forecast
• 5.10 Marriage of OTT, Hybrid & IPTV

6. Recommendations and Conclusions for Service Providers

• 6.1 Ratings for OTT Service
• 6.2 Paid Versus Free Content
• 6.3 Importance of Device Types
• 6.4 General Recommendations
• 6.5 Recommendations for Cable or IPTV Operators (For Adding OTT Service)
• 6.6 Recommendations for Internet Service Providers (ISPs or BBSPs)
• 6.7 Recommendations for Retail Chains
• 6.8 Conclusion

7. Addendum #1

• 7.1 Company Profiles - Platforms
  • 7.1.1 2Wire
  • 7.1.2 ADB
  • 7.1.3 Amino Communications Ltd.
  • 7.1.4 BigBand Networks, Inc.
  • 7.1.5 Boxee
  • 7.1.6 Brightcove Inc.
  • 7.1.7 Cisco (Scientific-Atlanta)
  • 7.1.8 Entone, Inc.
  • 7.1.9 Irdeto
  • 7.1.10 Jinni
  • 7.1.11 LG Electronics USA, Inc.
  • 7.1.12 Macrovision Solutions Corporation
  • 7.1.13 Mariner Partners Inc.
  • 7.1.14 Motorola, Inc.
  • 7.1.15 Netgem
  • 7.1.16 Rhozet (Harmonic)
  • 7.1.17 Roku, Inc.
  • 7.1.18 Sezmi
  • 7.1.19 Sling Media, Inc.
  • 7.1.20 Verivue
• 7.2 Company Profiles - OTT Service Providers
  • 7.2.1 Amazon.com, Inc.
  • 7.2.2 Apple Inc.
  • 7.2.3 Blockbuster Inc.
  • 7.2.4 Comcast (Fancast)
  • 7.2.5 Crackle, Inc.
  • 7.2.6 Disney
  • 7.2.7 ESPN 360
  • 7.2.8 BBC (I-Player) (PC Now, Multi-platform Later)
  • 7.2.9 Fetch TV
  • 7.2.10 Google/YouTube
  • 7.2.11 Hulu
  • 7.2.12 Microsoft Corporation
  • 7.2.13 Netflix, Inc. (Online Video Service)
  • 7.2.14 Sonic Solutions (CinemaNow)
  • 7.2.15 Sony (OTT Service)
  • 7.2.16 TiVo Inc.
  • 7.2.17 Veoh Networks, Inc.
  • 7.2.18 VUDU, Inc. (ISTB + Service)
  • 7.2.19 Yahoo! Inc. (Video Service)
  • 7.2.20 ZillionTV (Online Service/ISTB)
• 7.3 Company Profiles - CDNs (Content Distribution Network)
  • 7.3.1 Abacast, Inc.
  • 7.3.2 Akamai Technologies, Inc.
  • 7.3.3 Limelight Networks, Inc.
  • 7.3.4 IP Vision
  • 7.3.5 mirada plc

8. Addendum #2: Test Installations

• 8.1 Product and Service Reviews
• 8.2 Testbed Parameters
• 8.3 Product Section
  • 8.3.1 TiVo HD DVR and TiVo Wireless Adaptor (G)
  • 8.3.2 Roku Player
  • 8.3.3 Sling Media
  • 8.3.4 PC Laptop
  • 8.3.5 Netbook
• 8.4 Service Review Section
  • 8.4.1 Netflix
  • 8.4.2 CinemaNow
  • 8.4.3 Amazon
  • 8.4.4 TiVo
  • 8.4.5 Test Results

9. Addendum #3 - Glossary of Terms

10. Addendum #4 - Miscellaneous Specifications

• 10.1 Appendix A: PC to TV Models
  • 10.1.1 Internet + Over-the-Air to the TV
  • 10.1.2 Internet + Cable to the TV Set
  • 10.1.3 Break-even Analysis for the PC Models
• 10.2 Appendix B: ISTB Specifications
• 10.3 Appendix C: Internet Survey Demographics
• 10.4 Appendix D: Break-even (ROI) Analysis Data - Tier-1, 2, 3
• 10.5 Appendix E: Condensed Break-even Analysis Data

11. Index of Companies

Table of Figures

• Figure 1-1: HDTV: Rear Panel Connections Simple OTT/IPTV Installation
• Figure 2-1: U.S. Revenue in 2008 with Movie Release Windows
• Figure 3-1: Zeugma' s QoE Diagram for OTT Service
• Figure 3-2: Comparison of a Traditional CDN with P2P and P4P
• Figure 3-3: Rhozet' s Architecture for Webcasting
• Figure 3-4: RipCode' s System Overview for Transcoding
• Figure 3-5: Roku Screen Shot
• Figure 3-6: The Roku Remote Control
• Figure 3-7: The Hillcrest “Loop” Remote Control
• Figure 3-8: The Logitech MX Air
• Figure 3-9: The Logitech 1100 Universal Remote Control
• Figure 3-10: HDTV: Rear Panel Connections Simple OTT/IPTV Installation
• Figure 4-1: The DVD Business Landscape
• Figure 5-1: Audience Demographics By Age Groups
• Figure 5-2: U.S. DVD Sales for 2008 and 2009 ($USD, Millions)
• Figure 5-3: U.S. Domestic Home Video Transactions (Millions)
• Figure 5-4: U.S. Online Video Ad Revenue
• Figure 5-5: Ad-supported Online TV Revenues
• Figure 5-6: Net Advertising Revenues
• Figure 5-7: Internet-to-TV CE Devices (ISTBs)(000)
• Figure 5-8: Share of Market By Internet- to-TV (ISTB) Device - 2008 to 2012
• Figure 5-9: Market Share By Region
• Figure 5-10: Revenue Growth By Region: 2008-2012
• Figure 5-11: ISTB Evolution - Assumptions From Driving ISTB Forecast
• Figure 6-1: Ratings for OTT Services (Phone Survey)
• Figure 6-2: Viewing Habits of Internet Viewers (Internet Survey)
• Figure 6-3: Ratings of Paid Versus Ad Based Content
• Figure 6-4: Ratings of OTT Devices By Type (Phone Survey)
• Figure 6-5: Usage of Device Types (Internet Survey)
• Figure 7-1: 2Wire' s MediaPortal Software Interface
• Figure 7-2: 2Wire' s MediaPoint ISTB
• Figure 7-3: The ADB “Set-Back Box”
• Figure 7-4: The ADB “Set-Back Box” Installed
• Figure 7-5: Screen Shot of Mariner' s frostt Product
• Figure 7-6: Mariner' s HomeVu Product
• Figure 7-7: The Netgem ISTB
• Figure 7-8: The Roku Player ISTB
• Figure 7-9: Sling' s SlingCatcher Product
• Figure 7-10: The Apple TV User Interface
• Figure 7-11: Blockbuster' s Ad with 2Wire' s MediaPoint ISTB
• Figure 7-12: YouTube' s XL Interface
• Figure 7-13: Sony PS3 with Screen Shot
• Figure 7-14: The VUDU XL Product
• Figure 10-1: Internet Survey Age Demographics

Table of Tables

• Table 1-1: IPTV vs. OTT STBs
• Table 3-1: Comparison of IP Delivery Techniques
• Table 4-1: Basic Cable/TiVo (Monthly, $USD)
• Table 4-2: France OTT - One Movie + DTT ($USD)
• Table 4-3: U.K. OTT - One Movie + DTT ($USD)
• Table 4-4: Comparison of OTT Services in the U.S., France and the U.K. ($USD)
• Table 4-5: OTT Consumer Mixed Source Model Comparisons (Per Month Payment, $USD)
• Table 4-6: OTT Consumer Service Ratings
• Table 4-7: Tier-1 Break-even Analysis ($USD)
• Table 4-8: Tier-2 Break-even Analysis ($USD)
• Table 4-9: Tier-3 Break-even Analysis ($USD)
• Table 5-1: Global Active Digital Media Universe
• Table 5-2: U.S. Cable, Satellite and IPTV Operators
• Table 5-3: DIRECTV' s Business Overview ($USD)
• Table 5-4: DISH Network' s Business Overview ($USD)
• Table 5-5: Sky' s Business Overview ($USD), Subs Are Millions
• Table 5-6: U.S. Cinema Theater Revenue, Admissions and Ticket Prices ($USD, Billions)
• Table 5-7: U.K. Cinema Theater Revenue, Admissions and Ticket Prices (£' s and USD, Millions)
• Table 5-8: Western Europe DVD/BD Sales By Percentage
• Table 5-9: Western Europe DVD/BD Revenue ($USD, Millions)
• Table 5-10: Top U.S. Online Video Properties By Unique Viewers
• Table 5-11: Global OTT/ISTB Forecast (Thousands): Installed Base (ISTB vs. PC Devices)
• Table 5-12: OTT Video Service Revenues: Global ($USD)
• Table 5-13: Regional Share of OTT ISTB Market (%)
• Table 5-14: Regional Share of OTT Service Revenue ($M USD)
• Table 10-1: Tier-1 Break-even Analysis ($USD) (PC-to-TV)
• Table 10-2: Tier-2 Break-even Analysis ($USD) (PC-to-TV)
• Table 10-3: Tier-3 Break-even Analysis ($USD) (PC-to-TV)
• Table 10-4: ISTB + STB + DVD/Blu-ray General Specifications
• Table 10-5: Internet Survey Respondents By Region
• Table 10-6: Input Data for ROI Analysis ($USD) (Section 4.6 Above)
• Table 10-7: Condensed ROI (Break-even) Analysis for Added OTT Video Service ($USD)