Global Markets for Computed Tomography Systems 2009

Abstract

US, Europe (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK), China, Russia, Brazil, and India

From 2007 to 2008, revenues in the global market for computed tomography (CT) systems remained virtually unchanged. At the start of 2008, industry experts were expecting strong growth in this market because of demand from unsaturated markets in Brazil, Russia, India, and China (collectively called “BRIC”). The global economic crisis that intensified in the last quarter of 2008, however, had a huge negative effect and as a result, the market remained stagnant. In 2009, macroeconomic issues continued to impact the market with credit remaining tight. The resulting soft demand will cause a sharp decline in the global market for CT systems. As the economic crisis begins to ease after 2009, however, the market will stabilize and even resume growth due to strong demand in BRIC nations where governments are spending to improve health care infrastructure.

Methodology

The following report uses a number of methodologies to gather and present data and analysis. At the outset, a large survey of secondary sources is conducted. These sources act as the basis for the primary research stage, which builds and enhances the quantitative and qualitative attributes of the early research.

Secondary sources include:

• Government Sources:
  • Securities and Exchange Commission filings
  • Food and Drug Administration and patent filings
  • National Center for Health Statistics data
• Computed Tomography (CT) System Companies:
  • Annual reports, product brochures, corporate profiles, etc.
• Internal Databases and Reports:
  • Previous reports on similar/related sources
• General Internet Searches, Medical Literature, and Newspaper/Magazine Searches:
  • Identifying various centers of specialization and articles that might provide leads for primary research.

The secondary research stage builds the foundation for the primary research.

The primary research methodology has four steps:

Step 1: The first step involves an impartial scan of all the information gathered during the secondary research stage to determine its utility based on the specific requirements of this report. Each piece of information is, thus, either discarded or marked as high or low priority. It is then organized appropriately as determined by the structure and sectioning of the report.

Step 2: At this stage, early assumptions are formed as to the implications of the information for the various CT system market segments. These assumptions are then used to determine hypotheses using both inductive and deductive approaches. On the quantitative front, these hypotheses result in full historical and projected market data sets (market sizes [units and US$] and market shares).

Step 3: At this stage, the research is in position for its most important primary phase - expert interviews. Throughout the secondary research, industry and medical experts are identified. These experts are now contacted by telephone and asked to participate in interviews on recent trends and developments in the industry.

Interviews are either conducted at the time of the initial call or scheduled at the convenience of the expert. Interview questions are tailored to the expertise of the particular interviewee, although in most cases, the most important questions are asked of all experts. The questions are largely based on the assumptions and hypotheses developed in Step 2, which are then either augmented, discarded, or adjusted, based on the views and positions put forth. Attempts are made, whenever possible, to cross-check the views of various experts against each other and reach positions of consensus on issues and market numbers.

Step 4: The final stage of primary research involves individual and group analysis by Millennium Research Group. All research results are assessed and cross-checked thoroughly to determine their validity, relevance, and weight. From this process, qualitative conclusions are reached and data points finalized.

In addition to Steps 1 through 4 (as outlined above), the following “bottom-up” methodology was followed in developing forecast assumptions for this report. A comprehensive breakdown of various CT procedures was prepared using data from several sources including professional associations, government statistics, and private research/media sources. Industry experts and practitioners were consulted to ensure accuracy and verify observed trends. As a cross-check, total industry revenues available through 10-Ks and other sources were compared against modeled industry revenues.

Using the best estimates of industry experts, practitioners, private research/media sources, and in-house experts, year-by-year growth rates and average selling prices were applied individually to each subcategory to derive forecasts. These estimates were cross-checked by industry experts (marketing managers, product managers, CEOs, etc.) and further refined.

Overall findings were compared against market and procedure forecasts published by other sources to ensure reasonable estimates.