Pizza Restaurants - US - October 2009

Table of Contents

• Scope and Themes
• What you need to know
• Definition
• Data sources
• Sales data
• Mintel Menu Insights
• Consumer survey data
• Advertising creative
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations
• Terms
• Executive Summary
• A fate tied to the economy, but with additional challenges
• Competitive challenges
• Segment performance: Takeout, delivery, and dine-in
• Leading companies
• Pizza Hut
• Domino' s
• Papa John' s
• Little Caesars
• California Pizza Kitchen
• Papa Murphy' s Take N Bake
• Pizza restaurants and ordering technology
• Advertising and promotion
• Key demographics
• The kid factor
• Pizza restaurant usage
• Pizza restaurant decision influencers
• Pizza restaurants: Reasons consumers choose them
• Usage by daypart
• Market Size and Forecast
• Key points
• Man (and leading chains) cannot live on pizza alone
  • Figure 2: Total U.S. pizza restaurant sales and forecast, at current prices, 2004-14
  • Figure 3: Total U.S. pizza restaurant sales and forecast, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
• Competitive Context
• Key points
• Pizza restaurants suffer from "cuisine-centricity"
  • Figure 4: Restaurant use in the past year, July 2009
• Frozen pizza a stay-at-home value alternative
  • Figure 5: Average price for pizza restaurant entrée and CPG pizza, 2009
• Faster, cheaper alternatives abound
• Stealing the kid crowd
• Segment Performance
• Key points
• Overview
• A benefit to "grab and go"
  • Figure 6: Pizza, family and casual restaurant delivery, pick-up, and dine-in purchases, July 2009
• Segment Performance--Takeout
• Key points
• Pick-up pizza prevails on procurement
  • Figure 7: Takeout from a pizza restaurant, by age, July 2009
  • Figure 8: Takeout from a pizza restaurant, by presence of children, July 2009
  • Figure 9: Takeout from a pizza restaurant, by region, July 2009
• Considering curbside
• Segment Performance--Delivery
• Key points
• Delivery a favorite for younger patrons
  • Figure 10: Deliveries from a pizza restaurant, by age, July 2009
  • Figure 11: Deliveries from a pizza restaurant, by presence of children, July 2009
• Increasing competition for delivery dollars
• Segment Performance--Dining In
• Key points
• Pizza restaurants lag behind on dining in
  • Figure 12: Pizza, family and casual restaurant delivery, pick-up, and dine-in purchases, July 2009
  • Figure 13: Dining in at a pizza restaurant, by age, July 2009
  • Figure 14: Dining in at a pizza restaurant, by presence of children, July 2009
• Market Drivers
• Restaurant industry recession continues, but the bottom may be in sight
  • Figure 15: Restaurant Performance Index, current situation, and expectations, May 2007-July 2009
• Consumer confidence undermines willingness to spend at restaurants
  • Figure 16: Consumer Sentiment Index, by quarter, 2001-09
  • Figure 17: Spending at restaurants, by segment, July 2009
  • Figure 18: Pizza restaurant spend compared to last year, by selected demographics, July 2009
• Recession reshapes the family dynamic
• Increasing number of potential child diners in the U.S.
  • Figure 19: Population, by age, 2004-14
  • Figure 20: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by number of children in the household, July 2009
  • Figure 21: Trended teen use of leading pizza restaurants, 2004/05-2007/08
  • Figure 22: Trended kid use of leading pizza restaurants, 2004/05-2007/08
• Courting Hispanics
  • Figure 23: Child population (0-12), by ethnicity/race, 2004-14
  • Figure 24: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by race/ethnicity, July 2009
• Leading Companies
• Key points
• When it comes to being recession-proof, size doesn' t matter
• Success means finding your niche
  • Figure 25: U.S. sales of leading pizza restaurant chains, 2006-08
• Unit growth tells a similar story
  • Figure 26: U.S. system-wide units for leading pizza restaurant chains, 2006-08
• Restaurant Analysis: Pizza Hut
• Pizza Hut spreads its wings
  • Figure 27: Pizza Hut, "Is it me or does this Pizza Hut look different?," 2009
• Positioning as the place for "home meal replacement solutions"
• Serving as a tech example
• Restaurant Analysis: Domino' s Pizza
• A continued bottom line battle for Domino' s
• Domino' s toes its own line. Or does it?
• Keeping on top of tech
• Restaurant Analysis: Papa John' s
• On a marketing push to relative success
• Industry accolades
• Special offers trump menu movements
• A solid tech history
• Restaurant Analysis: Little Caesars
• Aggressive pricing, expansion and cost cutting drive growth
• Short (but sweet-priced) menu
• Event sponsorship
• Restaurant Analysis: California Pizza Kitchen
• Sales down, yet future plans in place
• Non-traditional locations
• Discerning palates; ethnic flavors
• Cannibalization from its own frozen line?
• Thank You Card program a sales booster
• Menu moves
• Procurement methods more closely resemble casual dining segment
• Restaurant Analysis: Independents
• The franchise torpedo
• The artisanal independent
• The backlash
• Menu Analysis: Pizza Hut
  • Figure 28: Menu ordering behavior on last visit, Pizza Hut, by age, May 2009
• Restaurant Brand Qualities: Papa Murphy' s Take N Bake
• Performance summary
• Differentiated by the take-and-bake model
• Award winner
• On the menu
• Growth trajectory: Continued growth in a stagnant field
  • Figure 29: U.S. sales and units, Papa Murphy' s Take N Bake Pizza, 2006-08
• Advertising and Promotion
• Key points
• Movie tie-ins continue to be a popular strategy
• Promotions and giveaways
• Television advertising
• The value proposition
  • Figure 30: CiCi' s penny picker-uppers, 2009
  • Figure 31: Domino' s 555, 2009
• Customer appreciation days
  • Figure 32: Papa Murphy' s customer appreciation days, 2009
  • Figure 33: Little Caesars customer appreciation day, 2008
• Targeting dads
  • Figure 34: Little Caesars family meal deal, 2009
  • Figure 35: Pizza Hut perfect family meal, 2009
• Innovations and Innovators: Menu Innovation
• Key points
• You call that a pizza? Yes!
• $5 phenomenon
• Innovation and Innovators: Gourmet and Technology
• Key points
• Pizzeria 2.0
• Pizza restaurants stay ahead of the online ordering curve
• Restaurant Usage Overview
• Key points
• Restaurant usage
  • Figure 36: Restaurant usage in last year, by selected demographics, July 2009
• Restaurant usage, by segment
• Demographic analysis
  • Figure 37: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by gender, July 2009
  • Figure 38: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by age, July 2009
  • Figure 39: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by selected HH income groups, July 2009
  • Figure 40: Usage of restaurant segments in the past three months, by presence of children in the HH, July 2009
• Addendum: Consumer question explanation
• Pizza Restaurant Usage
• Key points
• Pizza Hut continues to dominate by sheer size
  • Figure 41: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by restaurant, July 2009
• Demographic analysis
  • Figure 42: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by gender, July 2009
  • Figure 43: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by age, July 2009
  • Figure 44: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by HH income, July 2009
  • Figure 45: Usage of leading pizza restaurant chains, by presence of children, July 2009
• Pizza Restaurant Usage--Race and Ethnicity
• Key points
• Pizza restaurant usage by race/ethnicity
  • Figure 46: Top pizza restaurant usage, by race/ethnicity, October 2007-December 2008
• Acculturated versus non-acculturated Hispanics
  • Figure 47: Top pizza restaurant Hispanic usage, by degree of English spoken in home, October 2007-December 2008
• Pizza Restaurant Usage and Kids
• Key points
• Parents often bring kids out for pizza
  • Figure 48: Likelihood of children going with parents to pizza, family, and casual restaurants, July 2009
  • Figure 49: Likelihood of children going with parents to pizza restaurants, by selected demographics, July 2009
• Pizza Restaurant Decision Influencers
• Key points
• Price, proximity and coupons drive use
  • Figure 50: Pizza restaurant influencers, by gender, July 2009
  • Figure 51: Pizza restaurant influencers, by age, July 2009
• Pizza Restaurants: Reasons Consumers Choose Them
• Key points
• Competitive analysis: Pizza, family, and casual restaurants
  • Figure 52: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza, family, and casual restaurants, July 2009
• Demographic analysis: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza restaurants
  • Figure 53: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza restaurants, by age, July 2009
  • Figure 54: Reasons consumers eat out at pizza restaurants, by HH income, July 2009
• Pizza Restaurants: Usage by Daypart
• Key points
• Opportunity for continued daypart expansion
  • Figure 55: Restaurant mealtimes, by segment, July 2009
  • Figure 56: Pizza restaurant mealtimes, by gender, July 2009
  • Figure 57: Pizza restaurant mealtimes, by age, July 2009
• Appendix: Trade Associations