Low Carb - US - May 2004

Contents

INTRODUCTION & ABBREVIATIONS

• Introduction
• Other Relevant Reports
• Definition
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations
• Terms

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Americans have embraced the low carb lifestyle
• Americans need to lose weight
• Interest in reducing carbs has followed the typical trajectory for a food trend
• Consumers appear to be in the nascent stages of changing their buying patterns
• Food manufacturers and retailers are increasing offerings of low carb products at a rapid pace
• Low carbers plan on limiting carbs for life
• Outlook appears bright

MARKET FACTORS

• Diet and exercise
• Diet
• Figure 1: Incidence of U.S. adults trying to lose weight, maintain weight or eat fewer calories, 1996, 1998 and 2000
• Exercise
• Figure 2: Percent of adults exercising or eating fewer calores, 1996, 1998 and 2000
• Caloric and fat intake
• Figure 3: Percent of adults exercising, eating fewer calores, less fat or both to lose weight, 1996, 1998 and 2000
• The majority of Americans are overweight or obese
• Figure 4: Incidence of overweight and obese Americans aged 18 and older, 1994-2002
• Figure 5: Prevalence of obesity among U.S. adults, by demographic group, 1991, 1995 and 2000
• Children are not immune to obesity
• Baby boomers and aging Americans face weight gain
• Figure 6: American population by age, 1998 and 2003
• Incidence of diabetes on the rise
• Low carb diets beginning to reshape the image of healthy food
• Low carb is following the continuum for nutrition trends
• Figure 7: Flowchart of how a nutrition topic becomes mainstream
• Food consumption patterns
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• The 'food pyramid' revised guidelines
• A definition of low carb will be established

SUPPLY STRUCTURE

• Low carb-focused companies/brands
• Atkins Nutritionals
• Keto Foods
• Carbolite Foods
• CarbSense
• Major food manufacturers/low carb activities
• Unilever Overview
• Carb Options Brand
• Unilever/Slim Fast
• Nestle (Stouffer's Lean Cuisine)
• Hain Celestial (Carb Fit)
• Other low carb activity in the food segment
• Beverage manufacturers' low carb activities
• Anheuser-Busch Companies (Michelob Ultra)
• PepsiCo (Tropicana and Pepsi Edge)
• The Coca Cola Company (Minute Maid and Coke Ultra)
• Cadbury/Schweppes
• Other low carb activity in the beverage segment
• Restaurants and low carb activities
• Ruby Tuesday's
• Burger King
• Subway
• Other low carb activity in the restaurant segment

CATEGORY TRENDS

• Introduction
• Changing consumption patterns for key food products
• Figure 8: Incidence of change in consumption of key food and drink products in the last year, February 2004
• Traditionally high carb products
• Bread
• Figure 9: Changes in consumption of bread in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Bread/Wheat industry response
• Pasta
• Figure 10: Changes in consumption of pasta in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Pasta industry response
• Potatoes and potato chips
• Figure 11: Changes in consumption of potatoes in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Figure 12: Changes in consumption of potato chips in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Potato industry response
• Cookies/Cake
• Figure 13: Changes in consumption of cookies/cake in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Boxed foods
• Figure 14: Changes in consumption of boxed foods in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Frozen meals
• Figure 15: Changes in Consumption of frozen meals in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• High protein foods
• Meat/Poultry/Seafood
• Figure 16: Changes in consumption of meat/poultry/seafood in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Eggs
• Figure 17: Changes in consumption of eggs in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Nuts
• Figure 18: Changes in consumption of nuts in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Fruits and vegetables
• Vegetables
• Figure 19: Changes in consumption of vegetables in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Fruits
• Figure 20: Changes in consumption of fruit in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Dairy products
• Milk and yogurt
• Figure 21: Changes in consumption of milk and yogurt in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Cheese
• Figure 22: Changes in consumption of cheese in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Ice cream
• Figure 23: Changes in consumption of ice cream in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Beverages
• Regular soda/pop
• Figure 24: Changes in consumption of regular soda/pop in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Diet soda/pop
• Figure 25: Changes in consumption of diet soda/pop in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Alcohol and beer
• Figure 26: Changes in consumption of alcohol and beer in the last year, by low carb diet status, February 2004
• Sales and volume changes for key food categories
• Figure 27: Sales and volume changes for key food categories, 2003 versus 2002
• High carbohydrate product changes
• Traditional high protein product changes
• Dairy product changes

THE CONSUMER

• Introduction
• Low carb appeal
• Figure 28: Incidence of low carb dieting, February 2004
• Graph 1: Incidence of low carb dieting, February 2004
• Figure 29: Incidence of low carb dieting, by gender, February 2004
• Figure 30: Incidence of low carb dieting, by age, February 2004
• Figure 31: Incidence of low carb dieting, by household income, February 2004
• Figure 32: Incidence of low carb dieting, by race, February 2004
• Figure 33: Incidence of low carb dieting, by region, February 2004
• Figure 34: Incidence of low carb dieting, by presence of children, February 2004
• Length of time cutting carbs
• Figure 35: Length of time cutting carbs, February 2004
• Graph 2: Length of time cutting carbs, February 2004
• Figure 36: Length of time cutting carbs, by age, February 2004
• Figure 37: Length of time cutting carbs, by education level, February 2004
• Figure 38: Length of time cutting carbs, by carb dieter and carb aware status, February 2004
• General attitudes toward nutrition and dieting
• Figure 39: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, February 2004
• Figure 40: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, by gender, February 2004
• Figure 41: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, by age, February 2004
• Figure 42: Attitudes toward diets and nutrition, by household income, February 2004
• Figure 43: Attitudes toward diet and nutrition, by low carb dieter status, February 2004
• Attitudes toward low carb concepts and products
• Figure 44: Attitudes toward low carb concepts and products, February 2004
• Figure 45: Attitudes toward low carb concepts and products, by low carb dieter status, February 2004
• Goals of low carb dieters and those identified as carb aware
• Figure 46: Low carb dieter/carb aware respondent reasons for limiting carb intake, February 2004
• Figure 47: Low carb dieter/carb aware respondent reasons for limiting carb intake, by gender, February 2004
• Figure 48: Reasons for limiting carb intake, by low carb dieter status, February 2004
• Future plans for limiting carb intake
• Figure 49: Future plans for limiting carbohydrate intake, February 2004
• Figure 50: Future plans for limiting carbohydrate intake, by low carb dieter status, February 2004
• Graph 3: Future plans for limiting carbohydrate intake, by low carb dieter status, February 2004
• Success with a low carb diet
• Figure 51: Reported success using a low carb diet, February 2004
• Figure 52: Reported success using a low carb diet, by gender, February 2004
• Figure 53: Reported success using a low carb diet, by marital status, February 2004
• Figure 54: reported success using a low carb diet, by region, February 2004
• Figure 55: reported success using a low carb diet for carb dieter and carb aware respondents, February 2004
• Has dining out behavior changed?
• Figure 56: Dining out behavior among low carb dieters/carb aware respondents, February 2004
• Figure 57: Dining out behavior, by carb dieter and carb aware status, February 2004
• Summary and conclusions

THE FUTURE

• A large current and potential market exists
• New product introductions are on the rise
• Manufacturers may consider creating low carb products for children
• Diet "franchises" show no sign of abating
• Taste, calories, and price matter
• "Better for you," "no added sugars" and similar positioning should have merit
• Government and public policy efforts will ramp up
• Unit sales will serve as the bellwether for the low carb trend
• Lessons from Low/No Fat
• Backlash has begun

APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

APPENDIX: NEW PRODUCT BRIEFS

• Altria Group: Kraft Foods North America Carb Well Original Barbecue Sauce
• American Health: Carb Answer Fudge Brownie Mix
• Atkins Nutritionals: Atkins Quick Cuisine Chocolate Chip Muffin & Bread Mix
• Birds Eye Foods: Birds Eye Voila! Complete Meals
• Coca-Cola: Coca-Cola C2
• Dean Foods: Dean's New Sour Cream Packaging
• DrSoy Nutrition: Dr. Soy Snacker Low carb Snack Bar Extension
• International Frozen Foods: Culinary Delights Omelet Starters
• Keto Foods & Snacks: Keto Sauce Tomato Sauce Extension
• Marigold Foods: Kemps Carb Promise Ice Cream
• Nestle USA: Carnation Instant Breakfast New Low Carb Energy Drink Mix
• Organic Milling: Nutritious Living 40-30-30 Cereal
• Rexall Sundown: Richardson Labs Carb Solutions RTD Fruit Smoothie
• Russell Stover Candies: Russell Stover Low Carb Marshmallow Egg
• Sara Lee Foods: Atkins Quick Cuisine Supreme Pizza
• Silhouette Brands: Silhouette Skinny Carb Ice Cream Bar
• Todd's Health and Fitness Products: Todd's Fit Foods Boboli Pizza-Crust Bread
• George Weston Bakeries: Entenmann's Carb Counting Low Carb Sweet Goods

APPENDIX: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

• Consumer Research
• Sampling & Weighting
• Presentation & Definition
• Further Analysis
• Trade Research
• Informal trade research
• Formal trade research
• Desk & Internet Research
• Sources
• Definitions
• Forecasts

APPENDIX: WHAT IS MINTEL?

• Mintel Publications
• Mintel Services
• Product retrieval
• Retail audits
• Tailored research
• Global New Products Database
• Research Support/Consultancy/MIC
• The Mintel Information Centre (MiC)
• PR Research