Soups - UK - May 2004

Contents

Introduction and Abbreviations

Definitions

Advertising data

Consumer research

ACORN

Abbreviations

Executive Summary

A dynamic sector

Mixed fortunes

Canned soup dominates

Supply concentrates in a few hands

Falling above-the-line support

A challenging future

Market Drivers

Change in meal patterns

Figure 1: Eating habits, February 2000, January 2002 and February 2004

Resurgence of traditional habits

What is causing this?

Escape into TV land!

Time pressure continues

Smaller households

Figure 2: Trends in household size, 1999-2009

Shifting demographics

Figure 3: Trends and projections in total UK population, by age group, 1998-2007

More than ever over 55s

More young adults - demanding convenience and snacks

PDI

Figure 4: PDI and consumer expenditure, at current and constant 1998 prices, 1998-2007

Opportunity for premium and indulgence

Other factors

Salt content

Five a day initiatives

An ideal diet food

Demise of home cooking

Seasonality

Lunchboxes

Market Size and Trends

Figure 5: UK retail sales of soup, 1999-2004

Figure 6: UK Retail sales of soup, by sector, 2001-03

Market Segmentation

Wet ambient soup

Figure 7: UK retail sales of canned and other ambient wet soup, 1999-2004

Figure 8: UK Retail sales of ambient wet soup, by type, 1999-2003

New pack formats charge a premium

Figure 9: UK Retail sales of canned ambient wet soup, by type, 2003

Traditional favourites still dominate

Dried soup

Figure 10: UK retail sales of dried soup, 1999-2004

Figure 11: UK Retail sales of dried soup, by type, 1999-2003

Mixed fortunes instant versus packet

Fresh chilled soup

Figure 12: UK retail sales of fresh chilled soup, 1999-2004

The Supply Structure

Figure 13: Brand audit, 2004

Manufacturer shares

Figure 14: Ambient wet soup manufacturers' brand shares, 1999-2003

Figure 15: Dried soup manufacturers' brand shares, 1999-2003

Figure 16: Chilled soup manufacturers' brand shares, 1999-2003

Brand shares

Figure 17: Soup brand shares, 2001-03

Heinz dominates ambient wet

Chilled in ascendancy

Batchelors - a mixed bag

Campbell's struggle in ambient wet

Baxter's steady and growing

Unilever in trouble?

Main manufacturers

Baxters Food Group

Campbell Soup UK Ltd

Geest plc

HJ Heinz Company Limited

Premier Foods plc

S Daniels plc (New Covent Garden Soup)

Telford Foods

Unilever Bestfoods UK

Other manufacturers

Blue Dragon Limited

Brand Partnership Limited

HL Foods

Seeds of Change

Simply Organic

Stockmeyer GmbH

Sunjuice Limited

New products

Individual portions a key trend

More substantial products

New manufacturers tempted in

Seasonal Variants stimulate the chilled sector

Another attempt at frozen?

Novel Packaging revives interest

New Product Briefs

May 2004

April 2004

March 2004

February 2004

January 2003

December 2003

November 2003

October 2003

September 2003

August 2003

July 2003

June 2003

May 2003

Advertising and Promotion

Above-the-line

Figure 18: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on soup, 1999-2004

Figure 19: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on soup, by sector, 1999-2003

All sectors down - dried keeps going despite falling sales

Figure 20: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on soup, by selected brands, 1999-2003

Campbell's - the biggest spenders

Heinz - number 2

Baxters - 2003 a bumper year

Unilever withdraws?

Premier Foods

New Covent Garden Soup

Below-the-line

Ambient wet

Dried

Chilled

Distribution

Figure 21: Retail distribution of soup, by type of outlet, 1999-2003

Multiple grocers span into convenience

Impulse - the time has come

Multiple grocers need improved Category Management

Other channels pose no threat

The Consumer

Canned Soup penetration continues to fall

Figure 22: Usage of canned soup, by weight of usage, 2002 and 2003

Is switching the cause?

Soup purchasing habits

Figure 23: Types of soup bought, March 2004

A closer look at the canned soup consumer

Older consumers

Canned soup popular in Scotland

Stirring light users

Packet soup

Figure 23: Usage of packet soup, by weight of usage, 2002 and 2003

Packet soup: half the penetration of canned soup

Starting up

Dipping into the segment

Size matters

Fresh soup

Figure 24: Usage of fresh soup, by weight of usage, 2002 and 2003

Fresh leads the way

Fresh consumers in detail

Single serve chilled soup - a gap?

Cup a soup - snacking in and out of home

Appendix I: Figures 25-38

Canned Soup - Weight of usage: demographic breakdown

Figure 25: Users of canned soup, by gender, age and socio-economic group

Figure 26: Users of canned soup, by lifestage, age of children and Mintel's Special Groups

Figure 27: Users of canned soup, by marital status, working status, household size and region

Packet soup - Weight of usage: demographic breakdown

Figure 28: Users of packet soup, by gender, age and socio-economic group

Figure 29: Users of packet soup by lifestage, age of children and Mintel's Special Groups

Figure 30: Users of packet soup, by marital status, working status, household size and region

Fresh soup - weight of usage: demographic breakdown

Figure 31: Users of fresh soup, by gender, age and socio-economic group

Figure 32: Users of fresh soup, by lifestage, age of children and Mintel's Special Groups

Figure 33: Users of Fresh soup, by marital status, working status, household size and region

Soup purchasing by type: demographic breakdown

Figure 34: Types of soup bought, by age and socio-economic group, 2004

Figure 35: Types of soup bought, by lifestage, children's age and Mintel's Special Groups, 2004

Figure 36: Types of soup, by marital status, working status and household size, 2004

Figure 37: Types of soup bought, by region and ACORN categories, 2004

Figure 38: Types of soup bought, by Mintel's Special Groups - media and commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, 2004

The Future

Grab the bull by the horns!

Health paranoia

The cabbage soup diet

Low-carb an option?

A shakeout on the horizon?

Premium and Indulgence

New flavours and taste sensations

More substantial products

Chilled soup for singles

Vending

Forecast

Figure 59: Forecast of the UK soup market, 2004-09

Factors incorporated

Appendix: Research Methodology