Long Vacations Vol 1 - The Market - US - February 2005

Contents

INTRODUCTION AND ABBREVIATIONS

• Introduction
• Other relevant reports
• Definition
• Abbreviations & terms
• Abbreviations
• Terms

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Leisure travel on the rebound
• But competition from short breaks continues
• Internet continues to grow
• Baby Boomers are key demographic
• But Gen X a promising segment
• Advertising reflects rise in tourism
• Cruising: the traditional long vacation
• Continued improvement anticipated for long vacations

MARKET DRIVERS

ECONOMY TRENDING UP

• Travel expenditures
• Figure 1: Travel expenditures in the U.S., at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
• Graph 1: Travel expenditures in the U.S., at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
• Unemployment
• Figure 2: U.S. unemployment rates, 1999-2005
• Graph 2: U.S. unemployment rates, 1999-2005
• Discretionary income
• Figure 3: Households with discretionary income, 2000
• Figure 4: Per capita PDI, in current dollars, 1999-2004
• Figure 5: Amount spent in total, last domestic trip, 2001-2004
• Graph 3: Amount spent in total, last domestic trip, 2001-2004

DEMOGRAPHICS

• Boomers dominate, Gen X travel spending up
• Figure 6: American generations, 2000-2010
• Attitudes about retirement
• Figure 7: Pre-retiree hopes and expectations for retirement, 2001
• Catering to Gen X
• Figure 8: U.S. population projections, by age, 2000-2010
• Shifts in the family and household composition
• Figure 9: U.S. households, by type, 2004
• Figure 10: Distribution of households by type across age groups, 2004
• Single moms a burgeoning market
• Solo travelers
• Household composition, presence of children
• Kids influence on the family vacation
• Intergenerational travel
• Honeymoons a key niche market for long vacations
• Figure 11: Estimated median age at first marriage, by gender, 1968-2002
• Figure 12: Profile of engaged couples, 2002
• Travelers taking shorter trips
• Figure 13: Attitudes about short breaks, February 2004
• Online booking grows
• Figure 14: Total U.S. retail sales of Internet travel, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
• Last-minute travel
• Figure 15: Last-minute travel, May 2004
• Incidence of and reasons for last-minute travel
• Figure 16: Reasons for last-minute travel, May 2004

MARKET SIZE & TRENDS

• Sales of domestic long vacations
• Figure 17: Total U.S. sales of long domestic vacation and leisure travel, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
• Graph 4: Total U.S. sales of long domestic vacation and leisure travel, at current and constant prices, 1999-2004
• Incidence of taking long leisure vacations
• Figure 18: Incidence of long leisure vacations*, May 2003-April 2004

MARKET SEGMENTATION

• Figure 19: Sales of long vacation travel segmented by transportation, accommodation and long cruises, 2002 & 2004
• Transportation
• Figure 20: Sales of transportation for long vacations, 1999-2004
• Accommodation
• Figure 21: Sales of hotel accommodations for long vacations, 1999-2004
• Cruises
• Figure 22: Sales of cruises of 5 or more days, 1999-2004
• Tours

TRAVEL SUPPLIERS

AIRLINES

• Figure 23: Vacation and leisure travel revenue by major airline in the U.S., 2002 & 2004
• Figure 24: Vacation and leisure travel revenue for discount airlines in the U.S., 2002 & 2004*
• Figure 25: Airlines used for long vacations, May 2003-April 2004

MAJOR AIRLINES

• American Airlines
• Delta Air Lines
• United Airlines
• Northwest Airlines
• Continental Airlines
• US Airways

LOW COST CARRIERS

• Southwest Airlines
• America West
• ATA
• JetBlue
• AirTran
• Frontier
• Spirit Airlines

HOTELS/MOTELS

• Figure 26: Hotel/motel revenue, 2002 & 2004
• Figure 27: Hotels/motels used for vacation/personal reasons, by type of hotel, April 2003-May 2004
• Hotel brands used by long vacation travelers
• Economy hotel/motel brands
• Figure 28: Economy hotel/motel brands used by long vacation travelers, April 2003-May 2004
• Mid-range brands
• Figure 29: Mid-range hotel/motel brands used by long vacation travelers, April 2003-May 2004
• Upscale brands
• Figure 30: Upscale hotel/motel brands used by long vacation travelers, April 2003-May 2004
• Hotel profiles
• Marriott International
• Accor Lodging
• Hilton Hotels
• Cendant Corporation
• InterContinental Hotels
• Choice Hotels International
• Best Western International
• Independents/B&Bs
• Campgrounds
• Resorts/Disney

CRUISE LINES OVERVIEW

• Figure 31: Total operating revenue by major cruise lines in the U.S., 2002 & 2004*
• Figure 32: Type of cruise taken in last two years, January 2005
• Cruise brands used
• Figure 33: Cruise line brands used by long vacation travelers, April 2003-May 2004
• Carnival Corporation/plc
• Royal Caribbean Cruises
• Norwegian Cruise Line

TRAVEL AGENT PROFILES

ONLINE TRAVEL AGENTS

• IAC/InterActive
• Expedia
• Hotwire.com
• Hotels.com
• Sabre
• Travelocity
• Cendant
• Orbitz
• Priceline
• Other online travel suppliers

TRADITIONAL TRAVEL AGENCIES

• American Express
• Carlson Wagonlit Travel

ADVERTISING & PROMOTION

• Introduction
• Website/Email
• Airlines
• Hotels
• Cruise lines
• Loyalty programs/Co-branding
• Airlines
• Hotels
• Cruise lines
• Rental cars
• Alliances
• Figure 34: major alliances and major U.S. airlines, 2004
• Giveaways
• Cruise lines
• Airlines
• Rental cars
• Experiential travel
• Hotels
• Cruise lines
• Airlines
• Bargain travel
• Sports affiliations
• Seasonal/holiday themed travel
• Airlines
• Cruise lines
• Rental cars
• Attracting the group and family traveler
• Airlines
• Hotels
• Resorts
• Cruises
• Attracting the luxury traveler
• Cruises
• Resorts
• Air travel
• Marketing to women
• Promoting flexibility, range of travel options
• Vacation deprivation?

TRAVEL PLANNING AND METHOD OF BOOKING

• Introduction
• Method of booking
• Figure 35: Method of travel booking, January 2005
• Airlines
• Figure 36: Method of making airline reservations, November 2004
• Hotels/Motels
• Figure 37: U.S. sales of hotel rooms, by channel, 2001 and 2003
• Cruise bookings
• Figure 38: Use of travel agents when booking cruises, 2004
• Figure 39: Use of travel agents when booking non-cruise vacations, March 2004
• Timeline of travel planning
• Figure 40: Timeline of travel planning, January 2005

FUTURE & FORECAST

FUTURE TRENDS

• Travel spending on the rise
• Figure 41: Travel expenditures in the U.S., at current prices, 2001-2006
• Figure 42: Number and projection of domestic, inbound and outbound travel person trips, 2001-2006
• The "hassle factor" in the aftermath of 9/11
• Economic growth
• Pent-up demand
• Gas prices
• Internet and self-directed travel
• Figure 43: U.S. retail sales of Internet travel bookings, at current and constant prices, 2003-2008
• Baby Boomers head into retirement
• Figure 44: American generations, 2000-2010

MARKET FORECAST

• Domestic long vacations
• Figure 45: Forecast of total U.S. sales of domestic long vacation and leisure travel, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
• Graph 5: Forecast of total U.S. sales of domestic long vacation and leisure travel, at current and constant prices, 2004-2009
• Forecast factors

APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

APPENDIX: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

• Consumer Research
• Sampling & Weighting
• Presentation & Definition
• Further Analysis
• Trade Research
• Informal trade research
• Formal trade research
• Desk & Internet Research
• Sources
• Definitions
• Forecasts

APPENDIX: WHAT IS MINTEL?

• Mintel Reports
• Global New Products Database
• Comperemediaｮ
• Mintel Services
• POS+
• Mintel Consultancy