International Tourism Forecasts - December 2006

Table of Contents

• Introduction
• Outlook for growth
• One-off events?
• Environmental taxes and restrictions
• Environmental concerns
• Airport capacity constraints
• Four scenarios for the growth of air travel
• Growth in international air travel
• The fastest-growing air-travel destinations
  • Figure 2: Top 20 countries with over 2 million annual passengers, by average annual growth rate, 2005-09
• Tourism performance by region 1995-2005
• Outbound travel
  • Figure 3: Performance by region 1990-2005: outbound trips, 1990-2005
• Inbound arrivals
  • Figure 4: Performance by region and sub-region: inbound arrivals, 1990-2005
• Inbound receipts
  • Figure 5: The trend in international tourism receipts, 1990-2005
  • Figure 6: Performance by region and sub-region, 1990-2005: inbound receipts
• Definitions
• Tourist
• Outbound tourism expenditure
• Data sources and methodology
• Historical time series
• The importance of exchange rates
• Destination competition
• Report structure
  • Figure 7: The top 30 outbound and top 32 inbound countries selected
• Summary of Forecasts
• Outbound trips by region of origin, 1990-2020
• The Middle East and Asia-Pacific are leaders
• Americas due for a comeback
• Short-haul will grow faster than long-haul
• Outbound trips by region of origin
  • Figure 8: Breakdown of outbound departures by region, 2005
  • Figure 9: Forecast breakdown of outbound departures by region, 2020
  • Figure 10: Past and forecast outbound trips by region of origin, 1990-2020
• Inbound arrivals by destination
  • Figure 11: Breakdown of inbound arrivals by region, 2005
  • Figure 12: Forecast breakdown of inbound arrivals by region, 2020
  • Figure 13: Past and forecast arrivals by region of origin, 1990-2020
• Incoming receipts
  • Figure 14: Breakdown of incoming receipts by region, 2005
  • Figure 15: Forecast breakdown of incoming receipts, 2020
  • Figure 16: Forecast incoming receipts by region, 2003-20
• Top ten countries for outbound trips
  • Figure 17: Top ten countries for outbound departures in 2005 and 2020
• Top ten countries for outbound expenditure
  • Figure 18: Top ten countries for outbound expenditure in 2005 and 2020
• Top ten inbound countries for inbound arrivals
  • Figure 19: Top ten countries for inbound arrivals in 2005 and 2020
• Top ten countries for incoming receipts
  • Figure 20: Top ten markets for incoming receipts in 2005 and 2020
• The fastest-growing outbound markets and destinations
  • Figure 21: Forecast ten fastest-growing outbound countries for departures and expenditure, 2005-20
  • Figure 22: Forecast ten fastest-growing destinations for arrivals and receipts, 2005-20
• Forecast trips and expenditure by the 30 main outbound countries
  • Figure 23: Forecast trips and expenditure by country of origin, 2005-20
• Forecast arrivals and receipts in the 32 main destination countries
  • Figure 24: Forecast arrivals and receipts by 32 main destination countries, 2005-20
• Outbound Forecasts by Country of Origin
• Argentina
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 25: Total outbound trips and spend: Argentina
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 26: Top five destinations for Argentinian outbound trips, 2003-20
• Austria
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 27: Total outbound trips and expenditure: Austria, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 28: Top five destinations for Austrian holiday trips, 2003-20
• Australia
• Population structure
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 29: Outbound trips from Australia and expenditure, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 30: Top five destinations for Australian outbound travel, 2002-20
• Belgium
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 31: Outbound holiday trips and expenditure: Belgium, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 32: Top five destinations for Belgian holiday trips, 2003-20
• Brazil
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 33: Outbound trips and expenditure: Brazil, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 34: Top six destinations for Brazilian outbound trips, 2003-20
• Canada
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 35: Outbound trips and expenditure: Canada, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 36: Top five destinations for Canadian outbound travel, 2003-20
• China
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 37: Outbound trips and expenditure: China, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 38: Top six destinations for Chinese outbound travel, 2003-20
• Denmark
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 39: Outbound trips and expenditure: Denmark, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 40: Top five destinations for Danish outbound travel, 2003-20
• France
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 41: Outbound trips and expenditure: France, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 42: Top six destinations for French outbound travel, 2003-20
• Germany
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 43: Outbound trips and expenditure: Germany, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 44: Top six destinations for German outbound travel, 2003-20
• Hong Kong (China)
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 45: Outbound trips and expenditure: Hong Kong, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 46: Top five destinations* for outbound travel from Hong Kong, 2003-20
• India
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 47: Outbound trips and expenditure: India, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 48: Top five destinations for Indian outbound travel, 2003-20
• Iran
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 49: Outbound trips and expenditure: Iran, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 50: Top four destinations for Iranian outbound travel, 2003-20
• Ireland
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 51: Outbound trips and expenditure: Ireland, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 52: Top five destinations for Irish outbound travel, 2003-20
• Italy
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 53: Outbound trips and expenditure: Italy, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 54: Top six destinations for Italian outbound travel, 2003-20
• Japan
• Population structure
• Economy
  • Figure 55: Trends in the yen/euro exchange rate, 1999-2006
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 56: Outbound trips and expenditure: Japan, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 57: Top five destinations for Japanese outbound travel, 2003-20
• (South) Korea
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 58: Outbound trips and expenditure: South Korea, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 59: Top five destinations for South Korean outbound travel, 2003-20
• Mexico
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 60: Outbound trips and expenditure: Mexico, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 61: Top five destinations for Mexican outbound travel, 2003-20
• Netherlands
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 62: Outbound trips and expenditure: Netherlands, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 63: Top five destinations for Dutch outbound travel, 2003-20
• Norway
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 64: Outbound trips and expenditure: Norway, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 65: Top five destinations for Norwegian outbound travel, 2003-20
• Poland
• Population structure
• Economy
  • Figure 66: Trends in the Polish zloty/euro exchange rate, 1999-2006
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 67: Outbound trips and expenditure: Poland, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 68: Top five destinations for Polish outbound holiday travel, 2003-20
• Russian Federation
• Population structure
• Economy
  • Figure 69: Euro/rouble exchange rate, 2004-06
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 70: Outbound trips and expenditure: Russia, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
  • Figure 71: Projected growth in Russian outbound spending, 2003-16
• Destinations
  • Figure 72: Leading non-CIS destinations for Russian travel, 2003-20
  • Figure 73: Package tour destinations for Russian tourists, 2005
  • Figure 74: Trend in Russian package tours, 2005-07
• Singapore
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 75: Outbound trips and expenditure: Singapore, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 76: Top five destinations for outbound travel from Singapore, 2003-20
• Spain
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 77: Outbound trips and expenditure: Spain, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 78: Top five destinations for Spanish outbound travel, 2003-20
• Sweden
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 79: Outbound trips and expenditure: Sweden, 1995-2020
• Destinations
  • Figure 80: Top five destinations for Swedish outbound travel, 2003-20
• Switzerland
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 81: Outbound trips and expenditure: Switzerland, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 82: Arrivals in the top five destinations for Swiss outbound travel, 2003-20
• Taiwan
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 83: Outbound trips and expenditure: Taiwan, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 84: Top five destinations for Taiwanese outbound travel, 2003-20
• Thailand
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 85: Outbound trips and expenditure: Thailand, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 86: Top five destinations for Thai outbound travel, 2003-20
• UK
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 87: Outbound trips and expenditure: UK, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 88: Top five destinations for outbound travel from the UK, 2003-20
• US
• Population structure
• Economy
• Propensity to travel
• Departures
  • Figure 89: Outbound trips and expenditure: US, 1995-2020
• Expenditure
• Destinations
  • Figure 90: Arrivals in the top five destinations for US outbound travel, 2003-20
• Forecast Inbound Arrivals and Receipts by Destination Country
• Australia
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 91: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Australia, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
• China
  • Figure 92: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Australia, 2003-20
• Japan
• New Zealand
• UK
• US
• Austria
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 93: Incoming arrivals (TCE) and receipts for Austria, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 94: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Austria, 2003-20
• Belgium
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 95: Incoming arrivals (TCE) and receipts for Belgium, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 96: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Belgium, 2003-20
• Canada
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 97: Incoming arrivals and receipts: Canada, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 98: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Canada, 2003-20
• China
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 99: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for China, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
• Japan
• (South) Korea
• Russia
• Taiwan
• US
  • Figure 100: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities* to China, 2003-20
• Croatia
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 101: Incoming arrivals (TCE) and receipts for Croatia, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 102: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Croatia, 2003-20
• Egypt
• Tourism market profile
  • Figure 103: Trend in incoming hotel overnights in Egypt, 2000-04
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 104: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Egypt, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 105: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Egypt, 2003-20
• France
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 106: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for France, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 107: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to France, 2003-20
• Germany
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 108: Incoming arrivals (TCE) and receipts for Germany, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 109: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Germany, 2003-20
• Greece
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 110: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Greece, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 111: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Greece, 2003-20
• Hong Kong (China)
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 112: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Hong Kong, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 113: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities* to Hong Kong, 2003-20
• India
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 114: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for India, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 115: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to India, 2003-20
• Italy
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 116: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Italy, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 117: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Italy, 2003-20
• Japan
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 118: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Japan, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 119: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Japan, 2003-20
• (South) Korea
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 120: Incoming arrivals (VF) and receipts for Korea, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 121: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Korea, 2003-20
• Macao (China)
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 122: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Macao, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 123: Arrivals* by top five incoming nationalities to Macao, 2003-20
• Malaysia
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 124: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts in Malaysia, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 125: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Malaysia, 2003-20
• Mexico
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 126: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Mexico, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 127: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Mexico, 2003-20
• Netherlands
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 128: Incoming arrivals (TCE) and receipts for Netherlands, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 129: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to the Netherlands, 2003-20
• New Zealand
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 130: Incoming arrivals (VF) and receipts: New Zealand, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 131: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to New Zealand, 2003-20
• Poland
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
  • Figure 132: The zloty/euro exchange rate, 1999-2006
• Arrivals
  • Figure 133: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Poland, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 134: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Poland, 2003-20
• Portugal
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 135: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Portugal, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 136: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Portugal, 2003-20
• Russia
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 137: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Russia, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 138: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Russia, 2003-20
• Saudi Arabia
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 139: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Saudi Arabia, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 140: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Saudi Arabia, 2003-20
• Singapore
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 141: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Singapore, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 142: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Singapore, 2003-20
• South Africa
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 143: Incoming arrivals (VF) and receipts: South Africa, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 144: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to South Africa, 2003-20
• Spain
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 145: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Spain, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 146: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Spain, 2003-20
• Switzerland
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 147: Incoming arrivals (TH) and receipts for Switzerland, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 148: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Switzerland, 2003-20
• Thailand
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 149: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Thailand, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 150: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Thailand, 2003-20
• Turkey
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 151: Incoming arrivals (TF) & receipts for Turkey, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 152: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities or regions to Turkey, 2003-20
• UK
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 153: Incoming arrivals (VF) and receipts for the UK, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 154: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to the UK, 2003-20
• US
• Tourism market profile
• Exchange rate outlook
• Arrivals
  • Figure 155: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for the US, 1995-2020
• Receipts
• Major incoming markets
  • Figure 156: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to the US, 2003-20