Bread - US - September 2007

Table of Contents

• Scope and ThemesWhat you need to know
• Definition
• Data collection
• Abbreviations and terms
• Abbreviations
• Executive Summary
• Market at a glance
• Fresh bread--the biggest segment exhibits less than promising sales growth
• Top six manufacturers account for nearly half the sales
• Supermarkets continue to sell the most bread in the U.S.
• Bread consumers
• Household bread usage by type
• Household frequency of using fresh bread
• Forms of bread used in households
• Choice of retail channels for purchases in the past two weeks:
• Changes in buying behavior
• Importance of value proposition, health attributes, and consumer loyalty in purchasing bread
• Willingness to try new products
• Why consumers are eating more whole grain bread
• Future trends
• Bread industry is positioned for more profitable operation
• Bread marketers are meeting consumer expectations
• Market Drivers
• Bread is a mature market
• Household consumption of bread on decline
  • Figure 1: Frequency of household consumption of bread, 2002-06
• Eating out trends negatively impact bread usage
  • Figure 2: Spending on dining out, by age, 2001-05
  • Figure 3: U.S. sales of QSR sandwich restaurants, at current and constant prices, 2004-06
• Growing diversity of U.S. diet results in fewer bread purchases
• Growing incidence of obesity unravels the bond between people and bread
  • Figure 4: Percentage of population who are overweight or obese, 20-74 years of age, 1988-2004
• Consumers seek bread that tastes good and is good for them
• Consumers replace white bread with whole grain bread
  • Figure 5: Household use of types of bread, 2002-06
  • Figure 6: Response to various bread claims, June 2007
  • Figure 7: Reasons for eating more whole grain bread than last year, June 2007
• Bread makers reformulate breads to meet both health and taste concerns
• Natural and organic bread gain popularity
• Demographic influences
• Households with children influence the market
  • Figure 8: Incidence of household consumption of bread, by presence of children, 2006
  • Figure 9: Number of bread loaves used by household in last seven days, by presence of children, 2006
  • Figure 10: Number of children in households, 2001 and 2006
• Growing population diversity positively influences the market
  • Figure 11: Incidence of household consumption of bread, by race/ethnicity, 2006
  • Figure 12: Number of bread loaves used by household in last seven days, by race/ethnicity, 2006
  • Figure 13: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2002-12
• Bread sales through in-store bakeries experience growth
  • Figure 14: Sales of ISB bread and bagels/muffins/croissants, 2001-06
• Market Size and Trends
• Market size
  • Figure 15: Total U.S. retail sales of bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Wal-Mart estimate
• Market trends
  • Figure 16: New product releases, 2002-07*
  • Figure 17: New bread product claims, 2002-07*
• Market Segmentation
• Introduction
  • Figure 18: FDM* sales of bread, segmented by type, 2005 and 2007
• Fresh bread
  • Figure 19: FDM* sales of fresh bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Fresh rolls/buns/croissants
  • Figure 20: FDM* sales of fresh rolls/buns/croissants, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Tortillas/taco shells
  • Figure 21: FDM* sales of tortillas/taco shells, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Bagels/English muffins
  • Figure 22: FDM* sales of bagels/English muffins, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Refrigerated/frozen bread
  • Figure 23: FDM* sales of refrigerated/frozen bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Supply Structure
• A fragmented market
• A mega market without a megabrand
• Bread production is a local business
• Large bread companies created through consolidation
• The DSD system
• Difficult environment for bread producers
• Excess capacity
• Price competition
• Increasing cost pressures
• Companies and brands
  • Figure 24: Manufacturer sales of bread in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Fresh bread
  • Figure 25: Selected brand sales and market share of fresh bread at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Fresh rolls/buns/croissants
  • Figure 26: Selected brand sales and market share of fresh rolls/buns/croissants at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Tortillas/taco shells
  • Figure 27: Selected brand sales and market share of tortillas/taco shells at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Refrigerated/frozen bread
  • Figure 28: Selected brand sales and market share of refrigerated/frozen bread at FDM* in the U.S.,
• Bagels/English muffins
  • Figure 29: Selected brand sales and market share of bagels/English muffins at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
• Advertising and Promotion
• Interstate Brands Corporation
  • Figure 30: Wonder Whole Grain White--TV ad, 2006
• Sara Lee Bakery
  • Figure 31: Sara Lee range of whole grain white breads--TV ad, 2006
  • Figure 32: Sara Lee Thick Hearty Sandwich breads--TV ad, 2006
• Bimbo Bakeries USA
• Mrs Baird' s
  • Figure 33: Mrs Baird' s bread--TV ad, 2006
• Retail Distribution
• Introduction
• Main competition is between supermarkets and mass merchandisers
  • Figure 34: Outlets at which consumers purchase bread, June 2007
  • Figure 35: U.S. retail sales of bread, by channel, 2005 and 2007
• Supermarkets and Wal-Mart offer consumers different selling propositions
• Supermarkets
  • Figure 36: U.S. supermarket sales of bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
• Mass merchandisers and other
  • Figure 37: Mass merchandisers sales of bread, at current and constant prices, 2002-07
  • Figure 38: Wal-Mart store growth, 2001-06
• The Consumer: Usage, Frequency of Use and Types of Bread Used
• Summary
• Household bread usage by type
• Household frequency of using fresh bread
• Forms of bread used in households
• Choice of retail channels:
• Changes in buying behavior
• Importance of value proposition, health attributes, and consumer loyalty in purchasing bread
• Willingness to try new products
• Why consumers are eating more whole grain bread
• Household bread use
  • Figure 39: Use of bread, January-October 2006
• Bread use by type
  • Figure 40: Household use of types of bread, 2002-06
  • Figure 41: Household use of bread, by type, by age of the head of household, January-October 2006
  • Figure 42: Household use of bread, by type, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
  • Figure 43: Household use of bread, by type, by presence of children in the household, January-October 2006
  • Figure 44: Household consumption of bread, by type, by region, January-October 2006
• Bread usage analysis by cohorts
  • Figure 45: Types of bread used, comparison of working class couples and affluent couples,
  • Figure 46: Types of bread used, comparison of affluent couples with and without kids, January-October 2006
• Frequency of use
  • Figure 47: Number of bread loaves used by household in last seven days, 2002-06
  • Figure 48: Number of bread loaves used by household in last seven days, by demographic characteristics of household, January-October 2006
• Forms of bread used
  • Figure 49: Forms of bread used by household, 2002-06
  • Figure 50: Forms of bread used by households, by age, January-October 2006
  • Figure 51: Forms of bread used by households, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
  • Figure 52: Forms of bread used by households, by presence of children, January-October 2006
• Household bread usage by brands
  • Figure 53: Brands of breads used, by age, January-October 2006
  • Figure 54: Brands of breads used, by race/ethnicity, January-October 2006
• The Consumer: Choice of Retail Channels to Purchase Bread
• Where consumers buy bread
  • Figure 55: Choice of retail channels to purchase bread, by age, June 2007
  • Figure 56: Choice of retail channels to purchase bread, by household income, June 2007
• The Consumer: Attitudes and Behavior
• Changes in buying behavior
  • Figure 57: Purchase of bread with various health and information claims, by age, June 2007
• Importance of value proposition, health attributes, and consumer habit in purchasing bread
  • Figure 58: Attitude and behavior when purchasing bread, by age, June 2007
• Willingness to try new products
  • Figure 59: Interest in trying bread with various ingredients added, by presence of children in household,
• Why consumers are eating more whole grain bread
  • Figure 60: Reasons for eating more whole grain bread than last year, by age, June 2007
• Future and Forecast
• Future trends
• Significant growth in demand for bread is unlikely
• Bread industry is positioned for more profitable operation
• Bread marketers are meeting consumer expectations
• Bread makers position vis-ünvis retailers is improvingDemographic trends are favorable
  • Figure 61: Projected population of the United States, by age, 2000-20
• Market forecast
• Bread
  • Figure 62: Forecast of total U.S. sales of bread, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Fresh bread
  • Figure 63: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of fresh bread, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Fresh rolls, buns, and croissants
  • Figure 64: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of fresh rolls, buns, and croissants, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Tortillas and taco shells
  • Figure 65: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of tortillas and taco shells, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Bagels and English muffins
  • Figure 66: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of bagels and English muffins, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Other bread
  • Figure 67: Forecast of U.S. FDM sales of other bread, at current and constant prices, 2007-12
• Forecast factors
• Appendix: Trade Associations