Table of Contents
- Scope and Themes
- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
- Executive Summary
- CSD market shows moderate growth, but FDMx sales continue to fall
- Carbonated drinks declining in FDMx, seltzer is growing
- Market leaders are struggling in FDMx
- Encroaching competition and bad press hurting sales, but inspiring
innovation
- Health trends negatively impact sales
- Innovations will drive sales
- New products emerge but manufacturers need to protect flagship brands
- Coca-Cola and PepsiCo are trying to balance new products while leveraging
key brands
- Key demographics influencing market: youth, gender, and ethnicity
- Teens and young adults are core demographic, but declining
- Current pressures on the teen market include:
- Income related to CSD consumption
- Women are leaving the category, but men are migrating to diet sodas
- Ethnicity key factor in consumption and brand choice
- Nutrition does not sell CSDs of any type
- Market Size and Forecast
- Key points
- Health concerns and desire for new products are key factors for decline
- Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and forecast of carbonated beverages, at
current prices, 2002-12
- Figure 2: Total U.S. sales and forecast of carbonated beverages at
inflation-adjusted prices, 2002-12
- Wal-Mart sales
- Competitive Context
- Key points
- U.S. consumers want healthier beverages
- Energy and health/function--competition and innovation driver
- PepsiCo poised for success
- Evaporated cane juice, caffeine, and natural flavor changing landscape
- Increase the natural
- And the less natural
- CSDs no longer available in schools
- Competitive beverages
- Figure 3: U.S. sales and forecast of non-alcoholic beverages, at current
prices, by segment, 2002-12
- Segment Performance
- Key points
- CSD segments are changing
- Figure 4: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of carbonated beverages, at
current prices, 2002-12
- Figure 5: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of carbonated beverages, at
inflation-adjusted prices, 2002-12
- Sales of carbonated beverages, by segment
- Figure 6: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of carbonated beverages, at
current prices, by segment, 2002-12
- Segment Performance--Regular Carbonated Beverages
- Key points
- Regular sodas blamed for many health problems
- Competition getting stronger
- Growth depends on appealing to Hispanics, blacks, teens and adults aged
18-24
- And targeting consumers who will age out of the energy drink segment
- Sales of regular carbonated beverages
- Figure 7: U.S. sales and forecast regular carbonated beverages, at
current prices, 2002-12
- Segment Performance--Diet Carbonated Beverages
- Key points
- Fear and scepticism towards artificial sweeteners is a road-block to
popular acceptance
- Health benefits of diet soda are questionable
- Consumers like flavor and caffeine in diet sodas
- Sales of diet carbonated beverages
- Figure 8: U.S. sales and forecast of diet carbonated beverages, at
current prices, 2002-12
- Segment Performance--Seltzers
- Key points
- Bubbles without guilt
- Sales of tonic, seltzer, and club soda
- Figure 9: U.S. sales and forecast of tonic, seltzer, and club soda, at
current prices, 2002-12
- Retail Channels--Supermarket, Drug and Other Stores
- Key points
- Discount and supercenters continue to take share from supermarkets
- Decreased consumption reflected most in supermarkets
- Drug stores and other channels show robust growth
- Figure 10: U.S. sales of carbonated beverages, by retail channel, 2005
and 2007
- Figure 11: U.S. sales of carbonated beverages at supermarkets, 2002-07
- Figure 12: U.S. sales of carbonated beverages at drug stores, 2002-07
- Retail Channels--Convenience Stores
- Key points
- Convenience stores growing in carbonated drink sales
- Figure 13: Carbonated beverage sales in convenience stores, 2005-07
- Retail Channels--Natural Channel/Spins
- Key points
- Natural stores showing growth
- Figure 14: Natural product supermarket retail sales of carbonated
beverages, at current and constant prices, 2005-07
- Natural channel sales by segment
- Figure 15: Natural product supermarket retail sales of carbonated
beverages, by segment, 2005 and 2007
- Natural supermarket channel sales soda
- Figure 16: Natural product supermarket retail sales of sodas, at current
and constant prices, 2005-07
- Sugar-sweetened versus fruit juice-sweetened soda
- Figure 17: Natural product supermarket retail sales of sodas, by type of
sweetener, 2005 and 2007
- Organic soda sales
- Figure 18: Natural product supermarket retail sales of organic sodas, 2005
and 2007
- Natural supermarket channel sales of sparkling water
- Figure 19: Natural product supermarket retail sales of sparkling water,
at current and constant prices, 2005-07
- Brand sales
- Carbonated beverages
- Figure 20: Manufacturer brand natural supermarket sales of carbonated
beverages, 2005 and 2007
- Sparkling water
- Figure 21: Manufacturer brand natural supermarket sales of sparkling
water, 2005 and 2007
- Figure 22: Natural product supermarket retail sales of carbonated
beverages, at current and constant prices, 2005-07
- Market Drivers
- Health concerns
- Figure 23: New diabetes cases, by age, 2005
- Figure 24: Percentage of U.S. population over the age of 20 who are
obese, 2001-07
- Figure 25: Prevalence of overweight among children and adolescents aged
2-19, 1999-2004
- Figure 26: Reasons for drinking less regular soda today than a year ago,
February 2007
- Healthy lifestyles
- Demographics and changing tastes
- Figure 27: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2003-13
- Figure 28: Population, by age, 2003-13
- Leading Companies
- Key points
- Leading companies diversifying into non-carbonated beverages to counter
declining FDMx sales in carbonated drinks
- Figure 29: Sales of leading carbonated beverage companies at FDMx, 2005
and 2007
- Brand Share--Regular Carbonated Beverages
- Key points
- Coca-Cola sees growth with Fanta and Seagram' s
- PepsiCo flag brands also falling but Mug and Sierra Mist do well
- Figure 30: FDMx brand sales of regular carbonated beverages in the U.S.,
2005 and 2007
- Brand Share--Diet Carbonated Beverages
- Key points
- Coca-Cola' s diet brands are holding steady, but growth comes from
male-oriented Coke Zero
- Pepsi One was less successful but Diet Mountain Dew is going strong
- Cadbury Schweppes/Dr Pepper Snapple Group sees modest declines in FDMx
sales
- What can manufacturers do to grow this segment?
- Growth requires new markets--look to men
- Persuade consumers these are safe...build a better product
- Innovation occurring among major manufacturers
- Figure 31: FDMx brand sales of diet carbonated beverages in the U.S.,
2005 and 2007
- Brand Share--Seltzers
- Key points
- Seltzer on the verge of trendy
- Figure 32: FDMx brand sales of seltzers in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
- Brand Qualities
- Key points
- Helping consumers re-embrace brands
- Mountain Dew and Dr. Pepper focus on youth
- Coke Zero and Diet Pepsi Max battle it out over young male demographic
- Cadbury licenses beverage brands to food companies...
- ...and focuses on Hispanic market
- Innovation and Innovators
- Key points
- Figure 33: New carbonated drink products in the U.S., by company, 2002-08
- Figure 34: New non-alcoholic drink products in the U.S., by company,
2002-08
- Pepsi' s widening carbonated beverage portfolio
- Mountain Dew Touts "Game Fuel"
- Coconut and pomegranate current flavor trends
- Less plastic, less waste
- Advertising and Promotion
- New media even for older demographic
- Figure 35: 7UpTelevision ad, 2007
- Figure 36: Coca-Cola Zero Television ad, 2007
- Figure 37: Dr. Pepper Television ad, 2007
- Figure 38: Pepsi Diet MaxTelevision ad, 2007
- Consumption Trends--Adult Consumers
- Regular colas
- Diet colas
- Other "regular" carbonated beverages
- Other "diet" carbonated beverages
- Regular soda
- Diet soda
- Key points
- Health concerns drive consumers away from carbonated drinks
- Perpetual dieting
- Women are leaving the category
- Figure 39: Trended consumption of regular and diet soda--adults, 2002-07
- Figure 40: Trended consumption of regular and diet cola--adults, by
gender, 2002-07
- Figure 41: Mean number carbonated beverages consumed in past seven days,
by gender, age, race/ethnicity and household income, January-November 2007
- Figure 42: Regular soda consumption current vs. one year ago, March 2008
- Figure 43: Diet soda consumption current vs. one year ago, March 2008
- Figure 44: Reasons for drinking less regular soda, March 2008
- Income a Key Differentiator in Consumer Choice
- Key points
- Healthy living is easier with higher incomes
- Figure 45: Consumption of carbonated beverages, by type and income, May
2006-June 2007
- Figure 46: Volume of consumption of carbonated beverages, by type and
income, May 2006-June 2007
- Teen Consumption
- Key points
- Teens continue to be top CSD demographic
- The youngest consumers don' t drink much, but they learn fast
- Figure 47: Consumption of carbonated drinks--children, teens and adults,
by age, May 2006-June 2007
- Figure 48: Trended consumption of regular and diet soda--teens, 2002-07
- The big drinkers in the category are moving away
- Figure 49: Trended mean number of glasses of soda consumed per
week--teens, 2002-07
- Teen brand preferences
- Figure 50: Teen regular cola brand preferences, by gender,
January-November 2007
- Figure 51: Teen regular non-cola brand preferences, by gender,
January-November 2007
- Figure 52: Teen diet cola brand preferences, by gender, January-November
2007
- Figure 53: Teen diet non-cola brand preferences, by gender,
January-November 2007
- Race and Ethnicity
- Key points
- Culture makes a difference in carbonated beverage consumption
- Consumption decreasing/following overall trends
- Figure 54: Consumption of carbonated beverages, by race/ethnicity,
January-November 2007
- Figure 55: Consumption of carbonated beverages--black respondents,
2003-07
- Figure 56: Consumption of carbonated beverages--Hispanics, 2003-07
- Figure 57: Mean number carbonated beverages consumed in past seven days,
by race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
- Attitudes and Motivations
- Health beliefs
- Key points
- Black health beliefs coincide with consumption
- Figure 58: health concerns about regular and diet soda, by
race/ethnicity, march 2008
- Mothers most concerned about health
- Figure 59: Health concerns about regular and diet soda, by moms, march
2008
- Consumption of Substitute Beverages
- Key points
- Dichotomy: Rise of sugary caffeine and pure water among teens
- Functional beverages are often CSD substitutes
- Figure 60: Consumption of selected non-carbonated beverages, by gender,
March 2008
- Figure 61: Consumption of selected non-carbonated beverages, by age,
March 2008
- Figure 62: Trended mean number of glasses of soda and competing drinks
consumed per week--adults, 2002-07
- Figure 63: Trended mean number of glasses of soda and competing drinks
consumed per week--teens, 2002-07
- Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
- Consumption data by key demographics
- Figure 77: Trended mean number of glasses of soda consumed per
week--adults, 2002-07
- Figure 78: Consumption of carbonated drinks, by gender, May 2006-June
2007
- Changes in CSD consumption from a year ago
- Figure 79: Changes in consumption from a year ago of regular and diet
sodas, by gender, March 2008
- Consumer Regular and Diet Cola Brand Preferences by Ethnicity
- Figure 80: Regular cola brand preferences, by race/ethnicity, May
2006-June 2007
- Figure 81: Diet cola brand preferences, by race/ethnicity, May 2006-June
2007
- Consumer Brand Preferences in Regular Colas by Age
- Figure 82: Regular cola brand preferences, by age, May 2006-June 2007
- Consumer Brand Preferences in Regular Colas by Income
- Figure 83: Regular cola brand preferences, by income, May 2006-June 2007
- Consumer Brand Preferences in Regular Non-Colas by Gender and Ethnicity
- Figure 84: Regular non-cola brand preferences, by gender and
race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
- Consumer Brand Preferences in Regular Non-Colas by Age
- Figure 85: Regular non-cola brand preferences, by age, May 2006-June 2007
- Consumer Brand Preferences in Diet Non-Colas by Gender and Ethnicity
- Figure 86: Diet non-cola brand preferences, by gender and
race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
- Consumer Brand Preferences in Sparkling Water, Seltzers, and Natural Sodas
by Ethnicity
- Figure 87: Sparkling water, seltzer, and natural soda preference, by
race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
- Consumer Brand Preferences in Sparkling Water, Seltzers, and Natural Sodas
by Income
- Figure 88: Sparkling water, seltzer, and natural soda preference, by
income level, May 2006-June 2007
- Appendix: Trade Associations
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