Cakes and Pies - US - December 2008

Table of Contents

• Scopes and Themes
• What you need to know
• Definition
• Data sources
• Sales data
• Consumer survey data
• Abbreviations and terms
• Executive Summary
• A $6.2 billion FDMx market
• Competition from many sides
• Cupcakes and brownies are largest segment
• The majority of cake and pie sales are through supermarkets
• Age and presence of children are top market drivers
• Top brands and manufacturers
• Some innovation, but only in specific areas
• Cakes and pies are the most popular
• Supermarket bakery aisles and in-store bakeries most popular purchase venues
• Attributes sought by cake and pie purchasers
• Market Size and Forecast
• Key points
• Market recovering from early downturn
  • Figure 4: Total U.S. retail sales of cakes and pies, at current prices, 2003-13
  • Figure 5: Total U.S. retail sales of cakes and pies, at inflation-adjusted prices*, 2003-13
• Wal-Mart sales
• Competitive Context
• Key points
• Competition from other sweet/dessert categories
  • Figure 6: Foods considered snacks, December 2007
• Competition from in-store bakeries
  • Figure 7: Products purchased at in-store bakeries, April 2008
• Competition from scratch or semi-scratch baking
  • Figure 8: Types of baked goods made in past year, August-September 2008
• Overall Segment Performance
• Key points
• Cupcakes and brownies grow in popularity
  • Figure 9: FDMx sales of cakes and pies, segmented by type, 2006 and 2008
• Segment Performance--Cupcakes and Brownies
• Key points
• "Just the right size"
  • Figure 10: FDMx sales of cupcakes and brownies, 2003-13
• Segment Performance--Shelf-stable Cakes and Pies
• Key points
• ISBs can customize portion sizes, a trend not reflected in this segment
• Freshness factor
  • Figure 11: FDMx sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies, 2003-13
• Segment Performance--Cheesecakes
• Key points
• Cheesecake sales decline as consumers seek more healthful options
• There' s not much to do with a cheesecake...
  • Figure 12: FDMx sales of cheesecakes, 2003-13
• Segment Performance--Refrigerated Cakes and Pies
• Key points
• A segment challenged by ISBs
  • Figure 13: FDMx sales of refrigerated cakes and pies, 2003-13
• ISB Sales
• Key point
• ISBs leverage "freshness factor"
  • Figure 14: Sales of cakes and pies through in-store bakeries, by type, 2006 and 2008
• Retail Channels
• Key points
• 95% of sales through supermarket channel
  • Figure 15: Purchase venues for RTE cakes and pies, September 2008
  • Figure 16: U.S. retail sales of cakes and pies, by retail channel*, 2006 and 2008
• Retail Channels--Supermarkets
• Key points
• Supermarket sales remain relatively unchanged
  • Figure 17: Sales of RTE cakes and pies through supermarkets, 2003-08
• Market Drivers
• Key points
• Older consumers avoid cakes and pies
  • Figure 18: Types of RTE baked goods eaten, by age, September 2008
  • Figure 19: Population, by age, 2003-13
• Children are a good market, but parents are monitoring kids' calorie intake
  • Figure 20: Households, by presence of children under age 18, 1997-2007
  • Figure 21: Childhood overweight rates in the U.S., 1971-2002
• Leading Companies and Brand Share
• Key points
• An industry with few stars
  • Figure 22: Manufacturer sales of cakes and pies in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
• Brand Share--Cupcakes and Brownies
• Key points
• A segment with strong brand competition
  • Figure 23: FDMx company and brand sales of cupcakes and brownies, 2007 and 2008
• Brand Share--Shelf-stable Cakes and Pies
• Key points
• Weston' s Entenmann' s lead the segment, with only 12% of sales
  • Figure 24: FDMx company and brand sales of shelf-stable cakes and pies, 2007 and 2008
• Brand Share--Refrigerated Cheesecakes
• Key points
• Private label and smaller players comprise two thirds of the market
  • Figure 25: FDMx company and brand sales of refrigerated cheesecakes, 2007 and 2008
• Brand Share--Refrigerated Cakes and Pies
• Key point
• No clear leader: segment is almost entirely store-branded
  • Figure 26: FDMx company and brand sales of refrigerated cakes and pies, 2007 and 2008
• Brand Qualities
• Key points
• Snack cakes: for the young and young-at-heart
  • Figure 27: Types of snack cakes eaten, by presence of children in the household, Spring 2008
• Snack cake nostalgia
• Beyond cakes
• Innovation and Innovators
• Cake and pie trends
  • Figure 28: Top 20 cake and pie flavors, 2005-08*
• Functional ingredients in cakes and pies
• Products targeting children
• Wholegrain
• Gluten/allergen-free
• Portion-controlled
• Advertising and Promotion
• Key points
• Ad budgets cut for in all sectors
• TV ads
  • Figure 29: Television ad for Tastykakes, 2008
  • Figure 30: Television ad for Little Debbie, koala in supermarket, 2008
  • Figure 31: Television ad for Little Debbie, koala in racecar, 2008
• Online ads and promotions
• Interstate Bakeries Corp.
• McKee Foods
• George Weston, Inc.
• Types of Baked Goods Eaten
• Key points
• Cakes and pies are most popular baked treats
  • Figure 32: Types of RTE baked goods eaten, by age, September 2008
• Frequency of Eating Cakes or Pies
• Key points
• Respondents eat sweet baked goods about 10 times per month
  • Figure 33: Mean frequency per month of eating RTE baked goods, by gender, age, household income and race/Hispanic origin, September 2008
• Purchase Venues for RTE Baked Goods
• Key points
• Supermarkets are top choice for purchasing RTE baked goods
  • Figure 34: Purchase venues for RTE cakes and pies, by age, September 2008
• "Customizing" RTE Baked Goods
• Key points
• Respondents seek single-serve options
  • Figure 35: Attributes desired in RTE baked goods, by age, September 2008
• Attributes for Children' s RTE Baked Goods
• Key point
• Parents look for different attributes in products aimed at kids
  • Figure 36: Attributes desired in RTE baked goods for children, September 2008
• Attitudes and Opinions about Health and Nutrition
• Key points
• Age influences attitudes about health
  • Figure 37: Attitudes and opinions about health and nutrition, by age, September 2008
• Attitudes and Opinions about RTE Baked Goods
• Key points
• 74% of respondents prefer homemade cakes over store-bought ones
  • Figure 38: Attitudes and opinions concerning RTE baked goods, by age, September 2008
• Reaction to the "100-calorie Pack"
• Key points
• Pre-measured portion control
  • Figure 39: Use of 100-calorie packages of RTE baked goods, by gender, age, household income and race/Hispanic origin, September 2008
  • Figure 40: Opinions concerning 100-calorie packs of RTE baked goods, by gender, September 2008
• Appendix: Trade Associations