Table of Contents
- Issues in the Market
- Key themes
- Definitions
- Market in Brief
- Value growth bolstered by higher wheat prices
- NPD is thriving
- Demand fell
- Distribution
- The future of the market
- Comfort food and treats in the recession
- Internal Market Environment
- Key points
- Missed breakfast...
- ...does not help the bakery market
- New school regulations...
- ...have opened up opportunities
- Lunchtime eating habits...
- ...shape trends in bread and morning goods
- A switch from dieting to health
- Figure 1: Attitudes towards dieting, 2006-08
- The treat factor is still important
- Prevalence of obesity in adults
- Men -- the future problem
- Figure 2: Prevalence of obesity in adults, by gender, 2003 and 2010
- Special dietary needs provide opportunities
- Figure 3: Population suffering from food allergies, 2008
- Figure 4: Innovation in bread and bread products suitable for special
diets (% of bread launches), 2006-08
- Broader Market Environment
- Key points
- Price of flour
- Figure 5: UK: Consumer Price Index: bread and cereals, January
2006-November 2008
- An ageing population
- Cost-conscious 25-34-year-olds
- Younger generations influence purchasing habits
- Working women create opportunities
- Figure 6: Working status of women, 2004-08
- Figure 7: Working status of women, by social grade and presence of
children, 2007
- Student numbers rise
- Figure 8: Number of students in Higher Education institutions,
2000/01-2005/06
- Compact loaves for smaller households
- Figure 9: Trends in UK household size, 2003-13
- Strengths and Weaknesses in the Market
- Strengths
- Weaknesses
- Market Size and Forecast
- Key points
- Total value sales up 30%
- Figure 13: UK retail value sales of bread and morning goods, 2003-13
- Tapping into evolving trends
- Bread out performing morning goods
- Figure 14: UK retail value sales of bread and morning goods, by sector,
2003-13
- The future of the market
- Forecast
- Healthy but slower growth
- Factors in the forecast
- Segment Performance
- Key points
- Bread
- Volume sales of bread are slipping
- Figure 15: UK retail volume and value sales of bread, 2003-13
- Figure 16: UK retail volume sales of bread, by type, 2006-08
- Trading up boosts value sales of bread
- Figure 17: UK retail value sales of bread, by type, 2006-08
- Sliced white bread making a comeback
- Figure 18: UK retail volume sales of white bread, by type, 2006-08
- Figure 19: UK retail value sales of white bread, by type, 2006-08
- Brown bread boosted by its health credentials
- Figure 20: UK retail volume and value sales of brown bread, by type,
2006-08
- Speciality bread selling well
- Figure 21: UK retail volume and value sales of continental and
speciality bread, by type, 2006-08
- Flavour sensation
- Figure 22: UK retail value sales of speciality/ethnic bread, by type,
2006-08
- Plant bakeries dominate
- Figure 23: UK retail value sales of plant bread, by type, 2006-08
- Figure 24: Share of plant bread within UK retail value sales of bread,
by type, 2006-08
- Morning goods
- Figure 25: UK retail value sales of morning goods, 2003-13
- Plant bakers focus on morning goods
- Figure 26: UK retail value sales of morning goods, by source, 2006-08
- Seeking solace in comfort foods
- Figure 27: UK retail value sales of rolls, bakery snacks and foreign
recipe products, by source, 2006-08
- Healthy roll out
- Figure 28: UK retail value sales of rolls, by type, 2006-08
- Foreign recipe goods and fruited products
- Figure 29: UK retail value sales of bakery snacks and foreign recipe
products, by type, 2006-08
- Bagels bite
- Warm as toast
- Brand Shares
- Key points
- Brand shares -- bread
- Figure 30: Brand shares in plant-produced bread, 2006-08
- Investment pays off for Warburtons
- Premier Foods rescues Hovis and Nimble
- Own-label raises its game
- Brand shares -- morning goods
- Figure 31: Brand shares in plant-produced morning goods, 2006-08
- Warburtons warms up the category
- Own-label dominates NPD
- Slow growth for value brands
- Niche offerings
- Companies and Products
- Key points
- Brand map
- Figure 32: Brand map of bread and morning goods, 2009
- Allied Bakeries
- Next steps
- Premier Foods
- Warburtons
- Others
- Frank Robert & Sons Ltd
- Braces Bakery Ltd
- Greggs plc
- The Food Doctor
- Mission Foods
- Bakehouse
- BakeMark
- Cuisine de France
- Fine Lady Bakeries
- Inter Link Foods/McCambridge
- Kitchen Range Foods
- Krispy Kreme
- Maple Leaf Foods
- Brand Communication and Promotion
- Key points
- Adspend on bread and morning goods
- Figure 33: Main monitored media advertising spend on bakery goods,
2004-08
- Low priority for advertising
- Advertising by media
- Figure 34: Main monitored media advertising spend on bread and bakeries,
by media type, January-November 2008
- More extensive media coverage
- Adspend by advertiser
- Figure 35: Main monitored media advertising spend on bread and bakeries,
by advertiser, 2004-08
- Allied Bakeries raises profile
- Supermarkets advertise on price
- Low priority for morning goods
- Advertising themes
- Family goodness
- Tradition
- Flavour and texture
- Discount/price
- Channels to Market
- Key points
- Grocery multiples increase share at expense of smaller outlets
- Figure 36: UK retail sales of bread and morning goods, by outlet type,
2006-08
- Grocery multiples dominate
- Craft bakers get crafty
- Bake-off heats up
- Retailer activity
- Asda
- Co-op
- Marks & Spencer
- Morrisons
- Sainsbury' s
- Tesco
- Waitrose
- Consumption of Bakery Products
- Key points
- Figure 37: Types of morning goods eaten in the last six months, November
2008
- Roll over
- From continental to international recipes
- Warm as toast
- Indulgent treats are still important
- Ready-made, not part-baked
- Morning goods/bakery snacks -- consumption by gender
- Figure 38: Types of morning goods eaten in the last six months, by
gender, November 2008
- Male/female divide
- Socio-economics divide
- Location, location, location
- Further potential for Marks & Spencer
- Morning goods -- preference by age
- Figure 39: Types of morning goods eaten in the last six months, by age,
November 2008
- Consumption of Bread
- Key points
- Trends in consumption of bread
- Figure 40: Frequency of eating bread, 2004-08
- Competition from other products intensifies
- White v brown
- Heavy consumption correlated with age and socio-economic group
- Figure 41: Demographic profile of daily bread consumers, 2008
- Types of bread eaten
- Figure 42: Type of bread eaten most often, 2004-08
- Re-evaluation of white bread
- Innovation boosts consumption
- Bread consumed in the last six months
- Figure 43: Types of bread eaten in the last six months, November 2008
- Foreign = special
- Nutty about health
- Ethical concerns fall flat
- Sliced for convenience
- Figure 44: Types of bread eaten in the last six months, by age, November
2008
- Age -- a key factor
- Socio-demographics and supermarkets
- Specialist free-from bread
- Appendix
- Consumer research
- Abbreviations
- Appendix -- Internal Market Environment
- Figure 57: Population suffering from food allergies, by demographics,
2008
- Appendix -- Broader Market Environment
- Figure 58: Trends and projections in UK household size, 2003-13
- Figure 59: Trends and projections in UK population, by age group, 2003-13
- Figure 60: Trends and projections in UK population, by socio-economic
group, 2003-13
- Appendix -- Consumption of Bakery Products
- Figure 61: Consumption of bakery products, by demographic sub-group,
November 2008
- Figure 62: Consumption of bakery products, by demographic sub-group,
November 2008
- Figure 63: Consumption of bakery products, by demographic sub-group,
November 2008
- Appendix -- Consumption of Bread
- Figure 64: Frequency of any bread consumption, by demographics, 2008
- Figure 65: Consumption of bread in the last six months, by demographic
sub-group, November 2008
- Figure 66: Consumption of bread in the last six months, by demographic
sub-group, November 2008
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