Report: Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties - US

Scope and Themes
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
Executive Summary
Mature market with some opportunities for growth
Ice cream parlors, private label growth and DIY ice cream challenge at-home ice cream
Ice cream segment remains flat due to lack of innovation
Frozen novelties win with diet products
Sorbet market overwhelmed by private label
Frozen yogurt and tofu: prepare for take-off
Supermarket sales dominate in the ice cream and frozen novelties category
Domestic producers perform better than multinational brand holding companies
Nearly everyone eats ice cream, less so sorbet
Brandy loyalty low
Ice cream and frozen novelties with candy, frozen yogurt and sorbet best paired with fruit
Health claims are not all that important to consumers, but low fat tops the list
Consumers snack on and stock ice cream, but not frozen yogurt
New fruit flavors will help grow the frozen yogurt segment
Market Size and Forecast
Key points
A mature market shows strong, but unsteady growth
Bursting of the diet and ingredient bubble
Sales and forecast of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt and frozen novelties
- Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 3: Total U.S. retail sales of ice cream, sherbet, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
Walmart sales
Competitive Context
Key points
Ice cream parlors as compelling alternatives
New types of ice cream and frozen yogurt parlors emerge
Fast food chains offering ice-cream-like products
Dessert alternatives to ice cream
Margin erosion and the rise of private label
DIY ice cream and frozen yogurt
Segment Performance
Key points
Largest, most mature segments remain mostly flat
Organic products drive appeal within smaller segments
Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment
- Figure 4: Sales of ice cream and frozen novelties at FDMx, segmented by type, 2006 and 2008
Segment Performance--Ice Cream
Key points
Consumers form opinions and try ice creams based on what they can see at the shelf
End of the low-carb craze
Ingredient innovation is key to further growth
Sales and forecast of ice cream
- Figure 5: FDMx sales of ice cream, 2003-13
Segment Performance--Frozen Novelties
Key points
Low-carb craze, and health brands showed mixed performance
Strong performance of indulgent novelties, theme pops fizzle
Getting it right with frozen novelties
Sales and forecast of frozen novelties
- Figure 6: FDMx sales of frozen novelties, 2003-13
Segment Performance--Sherbet/Sorbet/Ices
Key points
Private label encroaches
Sorbet combos and premium offerings
Sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices
- Figure 7: FDMx sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices, 2003-13
Segment Performance--Frozen Yogurt/Tofu
Key points
Organic designation opens up growth opportunities
Frozen yogurt/tofu consumers look for cues of quality; more upscale
New claims spaces likely to drive growth in the future
Sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/tofu
- Figure 8: FDMx sales of frozen yogurt/tofu, 2003-13
Retail Channels
Key points
Consumer attitudes drive purchase location
Supermarkets are the retail venue of choice for most ice cream purchases
Walmart will not draw sales away from supermarkets
Convenience can be a strong driver of channel choice
Sales of ice cream, frozen novelties, sherbet and frozen yogurt, by channel
- Figure 9: FDMx sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, 2006 and 2008
Retail Channels--Supermarkets
Key points
Most ice cream is (and will continue to be) sold in supermarkets
Ice cream as a lure back to supermarkets
Supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties
- Figure 10: U.S. supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2003-08
Retail Channels--Drug Stores and Other
Key points
Convenience factor and fill-in trips help drive drug store sales
Drug store and other sales of ice cream and frozen novelties
- Figure 11: U.S. drug store and other FDMx sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2003-08
Retail Channels--Natural Channels
- Figure 12: Natural product supermarket sales of ice cream and other frozen treats, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-09
- Figure 13: Natural product supermarket retail sales of ice cream and other frozen treats, by organic, 2007-09
Market Drivers
Money to spend on ice cream and trend towards dining in
- Figure 14: Real disposable personal income per capita, by month, Jan 2006-Feb 2009
- Figure 15: Spending at restaurants compared to last year, November 2008
An aging population poised to eat less ice cream
- Figure 16: Population, by age, 2004-14
Kids in the household key to consumption
- Figure 17: Households by presence of children, 1998-2008
Obesity concerns
- Figure 18: Prevalence of overweight and obesity among Americans, by age and gender, 1988-2002
Leading Companies
Key points
Wells Weight Watchers spurs growth, Blue Bell is "best."
Private label shows significant growth
Manufacturer sales of ice cream, frozen novelties, sherbet and frozen yogurt
- Figure 19: Manufacturer sales of ice cream, frozen novelties, sherbet and frozen yogurt at FDMx, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February 22, 2009
Brand Share--Ice Cream
Key points
Nestlé sees sales slip on diet, fad, and old products, soar on new products
Unilever' s traditional and diet offerings perform poorly
Product quality drives demand; most consumers buy only one at a time
Manufacturer and brand sales of ice cream
- Figure 20: Selected brand sales and market share of ice cream at FDMx, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February 22, 2009
Brand Share--Frozen Novelties
Key points
Diet frozen novelties see great success
New frozen novelty segment entrants see wins through consumer curiosity
Manufacturer and brand sales of frozen novelties
- Figure 21: Selected brand sales and market share of frozen novelties at FDMx, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February 22, 2009
Brand Share--Sherbet/Sorbet/Ices
Key points
Segment dominated by Nestlé specifically, Häagen-Dazs
Manufacturer and brand sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices
- Figure 22: Selected brand sales and market share of sherbet/sorbet/ices at FDMx, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February 22, 2009
Brand Share--Frozen Yogurt/Tofu
Key points
Organic and non-dairy trend still hot in ice cream
New distribution helps drive stronger sales
Flavor and ingredient innovations in frozen yogurt drive sales
Manufacturer and brand sales of frozen yogurt/tofu
- Figure 23: Selected brand sales and market share of frozen yogurt/tofu at FDMx, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2008 and February 22, 2009
SPINS Natural Channel Data
Natural channel sales by segment and brand
- Figure 24: Natural product supermarket retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, 2007-09
Soy dessert maker Turtle Mountain leads segment, other larger brands challenged
- Figure 25: Manufacturer brand natural supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, 2007 and 2009
Non-dairy sales strong, soy suffers to alternatives
- Figure 26: Natural product supermarket retail sales of non-dairy ice cream and frozen novelties, by type, 2007-09
Brand Qualities
Blue Bell
Ben & Jerry' s
Breyers
Edy' s/Dreyer' s
Häagen-Dazs (and Häagen-Dazs Reserve)
Klondike
Wells Blue Bunny, Bomb Pops, and Weight Watchers
Private Label
Innovation and Innovators
Ice cream
Private label takes on the characteristics of branded ice cream
Seasonal products hit the mainstream
Private label organics
Frozen novelties and frozen yogurt/tofu
Novel forms
Non-dairy/frozen yogurt/tofu
Flavor
Sorbets/sherbet/ices
New drink-like flavors
Health claims--antioxidants and vitamins
Advertising and Promotion
Overview
- Figure 27: TV advertising expenditures by leading ice cream parent companies, 2007 and 2008
The importance of packaging
Breyers
- Figure 28: Unilever/Breyers television ad, 2008
Häagen-Dazs
- Figure 29: Nestlé Häagen-Dazs television ad, 2008
Blue Bell
- Figure 30: Blue bell ice cream/Blue Bell television ad, 2008
Klondike
- Figure 31: Klondike television ad, 2008
Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties Consumption
Key points
Trended usage
- Figure 32: Trended household usage of ice cream and sherbet, frozen yogurt, and frozen novelties, 2004-08
Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption today
- Figure 33: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12 months, by gender, February 2009
Younger consumers display higher consumption
- Figure 34: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12 months, by age, February 2009
The impact of income on less traditional frozen treats
- Figure 35: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12 months, by HH income, February 2009
Presence of children drives increased consumption
- Figure 36: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12 months, by children in HH, February 2009
Brand Preferences
Key points
Brand loyalty low for all frozen treats
- Figure 37: Brand preference, by frozen treat, February 2009
Gender roles in brand selection
- Figure 38: Ice cream and frozen novelty brand preferences, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 39: Frozen yogurt and gelato brand preferences, by gender, February 2009
The young and the fickle
- Figure 40: Ice cream brand and frozen novelty preferences, by age, February 2009
Southern loyalty
- Figure 41: Ice cream and frozen novelty brand preferences, by region, February 2009
Flavor Preferences
Key points
Preferences vary by treat type
- Figure 42: Flavor preference, by frozen treat, February 2009
Ice cream and frozen novelty preferences
- Figure 43: Ice cream and frozen novelty flavor preference, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 44: Ice cream and frozen novelty flavor preference, by age, February 2009
- Figure 45: Ice cream and frozen novelty flavor preference, by region, February 2009
Interest in mix-ins
- Figure 46: Interest in packaged mix-ins, February 2009
The Health Factor
Key points
Low fat, low calorie, low sugar, low cholesterol
- Figure 47: Importance of health attributes in frozen treats, February 2009
Health matters: the role of gender, age and region in determining degree
- Figure 48: Importance of health attributes in frozen treats, by gender and age, February 2009
Is ice cream unhealthy?
- Figure 49: Ice cream health attitudes, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 50: Ice cream health attitudes, by age, February 2009
Purchase Locations
Key points
Purchase locations
- Figure 51: Frozen treat purchase location, by age, February 2009
Consumption Habits and Interest
Key points
Ice cream consumption--convenience and pairing
- Figure 52: Interest in portability and pairing of ice cream, by age, February 2009
- Figure 53: Interest in portability and pairing of ice cream, by number of children in household, February 2009
Ice cream and frozen yogurt consumption habits
- Figure 54: Ice cream and frozen yogurt consumption habits, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 55: Ice cream and frozen yogurt consumption habits, by age, February 2009
Frozen Yogurt--Taste v. Health
Key points
Increasing frozen yogurt consumption
- Figure 56: Frozen yogurt preferences, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 57: Frozen yogurt preferences, by age, February 2009
- Figure 58: Frozen yogurt preferences, by region, February 2009
The health factor
- Figure 59: Health attributes of frozen yogurt, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 60: Health attributes of frozen yogurt, by region, February 2009
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
Regional trends at play
- Figure 82: Ice cream and frozen novelty consumption in the past 12 months, by region, February 2009
- Figure 83: Frozen yogurt brand preferences, by region, February 2009
- Figure 84: Ice cream health attitudes, by region, February 2009
- Figure 85: Importance of health attributes in frozen treats, by region, February 2009
Additional income impacts
- Figure 86: Ice cream and frozen novelty brand preferences, by HH income, February 2009
- Figure 87: Importance of health attributes in frozen treats, by HH income, February 2009
- Figure 88: Ice cream health attitudes, by HH income, February 2009
- Figure 89: Frozen treat purchase location, by HH income, February 2009
Trended brand usage
- Figure 90: Top ten brands of ice cream used by households, 2006-08
Frozen yogurt flavors
- Figure 91: Frozen yogurt flavor preference, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 92: Frozen yogurt flavor preference, by age, February 2009
Gelato flavors
- Figure 93: Gelato flavor preference, by gender, February 2009
Ice cream behaviors and interests
- Figure 94: Eating ice cream, by gender, February 2009
Appendix: Trade Associations

Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties - US - May 2009

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