Report: Cheese - US - May 2009 TOC

Scope and Themes
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources and methodology
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Advertising clips
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
Executive Summary
A $16 billion market for cheese
The forecast is favorable in 2009 and beyond due to several factors
BFY natural cheese outpaced category growth by six percentage points
Supermarkets hold their own against discount-centric mass outlets
Highlights of this year' s cheese consumer survey
Consumption is common with usage skewing to females and older individuals
Varieties of cheese attract varieties of consumers, though experimentation isn' t common
Household presence of children deters usage and kids prefer milk and foods that contain cheese
Key brands from Kraft and Sargento dominate but private label/store brands are in the midst of a momentum gain
Product innovations emphasize convenience and purity
Market Size and Forecast
Key points
Cheese has a loyal and ever-growing following
Market size and forecast
- Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of cheese, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales of cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
Walmart sales
Competitive Context
At-home meal consumption will drive cheese sales
But consumers have many options outside the category
From snacks and sandwiches with cheese provided...
...to frozen meals such as pizza...
...to healthy snacks other than cheese
Segment Performance
Key points
Overview
- Figure 3: FDMx sales of cheese, segmented by type, 2006 and 2008
- Figure 4: FDMx sales of cheese, by segment, recent rolling 52-week periods, 2008-09
Cheese sales at current prices, by segment 2003-13
- Figure 5: FDMx sales of cheese, at current prices, by segment, 2003-13
Segment Performance--Natural Cheese
The natural cheese segment will drive growth in the category in 2009
Sales and forecast--natural cheese
- Figure 6: FDMx sales and forecast of natural cheese, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 7: FDMx sales and forecast of natural cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
Segment Performance--Processed Cheese
Processed cheese will hold its own in 2009 but the outlook beyond isn' t as positive
Sales and forecast--processed cheese
- Figure 8: FDMx sales and forecast of processed cheese, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 9: FDMx sales and forecast of processed cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
Segment Performance--Cottage Cheese
Cottage cheese segment sales will contract over the next few years
Sales and forecast--cottage cheese
- Figure 10: FDMx sales and forecast of cottage cheese, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 11: FDMx sales and forecast of cottage cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
Segment Performance--Cream Cheese/Cream Cheese Spread
The cream cheese segment will see incremental growth from 2009-13
Sales and forecast--cream cheese/cream cheese spread
- Figure 12: FDMx sales and forecast of cream cheese, at current prices, 2003-13
- Figure 13: FDMx sales and forecast of cream cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
Retail Channels
Key points
Sales gains from 2007-08 roughly equal in two primary sales outlets
Sales by retail channel 2007-08
- Figure 14: U.S. retail sales of cheese, by retail channel, 2007 and 2008
Retail Channels--Supermarket/Food Stores
Key point
Supermarkets balance variety and value
Sales through supermarkets/food stores
- Figure 15: U.S. retail sales of cheese at supermarkets/food stores, 2003-08
Retail Channels--Mass and Other
Key points
Mass and other outlets are leveling off as supermarkets grow sales
Sales through mass and other stores
- Figure 16: U.S. retail sales of cheese at mass and other channels, 2003-08
Retail Channels--Natural Food Stores
Key points
Sales of cheese in the natural channel
Recession woes are likely to reduce natural store visits and purchases in 2009 and 2010
- Figure 17: Natural product supermarket retail sales of cheese, at current prices, 2007-09
- Figure 18: Natural product supermarket retail sales of cheese, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-09
Organic cheese accounts for 43% of sales in natural supermarkets
- Figure 19: Natural product supermarket retail sales of cheese, by organic ingredient presence, 2007 and 2009
Market Drivers
Cheese consumption per capita slowly but steadily rises
- Figure 20: Per capita consumption of cheese*, 1998-2006
Mintel expects the cheese market to fare well in the next several years thanks to several drivers
- Figure 21: Population, by age, 2004-14
- Figure 22: Households, by presence of children, 1998-2008
Leading Companies
Key points
Kraft Foods accounts for a third of sales but must innovate and differentiate to weather the recession
Sargento Foods appealingly blends affordability and an image of purity
Private label and store brands hit consumer sweet spot
Sales of leading cheese companies, 2007 and 2008
- Figure 23: FDMx sales of leading cheese companies, 2007 and 2008
Selected Brand Analysis--Natural Cheese
Key points
Consumers turn to private label/store brands as economy worsens
Consumer interest waning with Kraft Foods' key natural cheese brands
Sargento Foods finds success with its slices and string cheeses
Natural cheese segment company and brand sales
- Figure 24: Selected FDMx brand sales of natural cheese in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Selected Brand Analysis--Processed Cheese
Key points
Kraft Foods
Bel Brands USA
Processed cheese segment company and brand sales
- Figure 25: FDMx brand sales of processed cheese in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Selected Brand Analysis--Cottage Cheese
Key points
Kraft Foods
Dean Foods
Cottage cheese segment company and brand sales
- Figure 26: FDMx brand sales of cottage cheese in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Selected Brand Analysis--Cream Cheese/Cream Cheese Spread
Key points
Kraft needs to focus on unique offerings
Cream cheese/cream cheese spreads segment company and brand sales
- Figure 27: FDMx brand sales of cream cheese/cream cheese spread in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
Brand Qualities
Kraft Foods hones in on value and convenience
Natural cheeses may not make the cut in 2009
Cross-marketing and endorsements also important
Ultimately, it seems Kraft will focus less on premium and better-for-you offerings in 2009
Sargento Foods pushes premiumization
New product introductions
- Figure 28: New product introductions in cheese, U.S., 2003-08
- Figure 29: Dairy and dairy alternatives new product introductions, U.S., 2004-08
Top claims in the cheese subcategory
- Figure 30: Top claims for new cheese product introductions, U.S., 2004-08
U.S. new product innovation highlights
Premium, artisan presentation:
Presidential novelty: Barick Obama Cheese
Targeted positioning: Fortification for women
Restaurant-quality meal experience at home
Private label/store brand variants offer consumers all types of options from premium spreads to between-meal snacks
Unexpected alcohol
Sweet applications
Ethnic inspirations
Fortification
Cheese and cholesterol claims
Kosher
Natural products
Convenient packaging
Private label products
Advertising and Promotion
Overview
Sargento Foods gets persnickety with Kraft Foods
- Figure 31: Cheese factory assembly line vs hand crafted, TV ad, February 2008
Kraft Foods targets fat-conscious consumers who "miss" cheese
- Figure 32: After almost 100 years re-invented the wheel, TV ad, February 2009
Kraft Foods' Philadelphia brand targets increased user occasions
- Figure 33: Accountant takes a mental health day, TV ad, February 2009
Kraft is capitalizing on a burgeoning budget audience with its Velveeta brand
- Figure 34: Mom cuts in half at grocery, TV ad, September 2008
Laughing Cow plays up its strong suit: portability
- Figure 35: Woman on a sidewalk offers Mini Babybel packs, TV ad, April 2009
Personal Consumption of Cheese
Key points
Overall incidence of eating
- Figure 36: Personal consumption of cheese, by gender, February 2009
Overall incidence of consumption
- Figure 37: Personal consumption of cheese, by age, February 2009
Changes in Personal Cheese Consumption and Reasons
Key points
Trends in cheese consumption versus last year
- Figure 38: Eating more or less cheese than last year, by age, February 2009
Reasons for eating more cheese than last year
- Figure 39: Reasons for eating more cheese than last year, by gender, February 2009
Reasons for eating less cheese than last year
- Figure 40: Reasons for eating less cheese than last year, by gender, February 2009
Reasons for not eating cheese
- Figure 41: Reasons for not eating cheese, by gender, February 2009
Sources of Cheese Bought
Key points
Store types where cheese is purchased by user type
- Figure 42: Store types from which cheese is bought--regularly, occasionally or never, part 1, February 2009
- Figure 43: Store types from which cheese is bought--regularly, occasionally or never, part 2, February 2009
Convenience stores
- Figure 44: Buy cheese from a convenience store--regularly, occasionally or never, by gender, February 2009
Club stores by demographic
- Figure 45: Buy cheese from a club store--regularly, occasionally or never, by age, February 2009
Farmers' markets by demographic
- Figure 46: Buy cheese from a farmers' market--regularly, occasionally or never, by age, February 2009
Cheese Consumption and Buying Patterns
Key points
Interest in experimentation
- Figure 47: Experimentation with cheese, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 48: Experimentation with cheese, by household income, February 2009
Types of cheese purchased
- Figure 49: Forms of cheese bought, by gender, February 2009
Frequency of eating cheese
Figure 50: Frequency of eating cheese (meals per week), by age, February 2009
Attitudes towards healthfulness of cheese
- Figure 51: Attitudes towards healthfulness of cheese, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 52: Attitudes towards healthfulness of cheese, by age, February 2009
Types of Cheese Eaten in the Household
Key points
Highlights of usage by income, gender, and presence of children
Fat content and its effect on cohort purchases
Companies and brands and their appeal with cohorts
American cheese
Consumption of American cheese by cohort group
- Figure 53: Household consumption of American cheese, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of American by cheese form and by cohort group
- Figure 54: Household consumption of American cheese, by form of cheese, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of American cheese by fat content and by cohort group
- Figure 55: Household consumption of American cheese, by fat content, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of American cheese by brand and by cohort group
- Figure 56: Household consumption of American cheese, by brand, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Cream cheese
Consumption of cream cheese by cohort group
- Figure 57: Household consumption of cream cheese, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of cream cheese by brand and by cohort group
- Figure 58: Household consumption of cream cheese, by brand, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Natural/Imported cheese
Consumption of natural/imported cheese by cohort group
- Figure 59: Household consumption of natural or imported cheese, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of natural/imported cheese by fat content and by cohort group
- Figure 60: Household consumption of natural or imported cheese, by fat content, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of natural/imported cheese by form and by cohort group
- Figure 61: Household consumption of natural or imported cheese, by form, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of natural/imported cheese by type and by cohort group
- Figure 62: Household consumption of natural or imported cheese, by type, by top cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
- Figure 63: Household consumption of natural or imported cheese, by type, by bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of natural/imported cheese by brand and by cohort group
- Figure 64: Household consumption of natural or imported cheese, by brand, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Cottage cheese
Consumption of cottage cheese by cohort group
- Figure 65: Household consumption of cottage cheese, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of cottage cheese by fat content and by cohort group
- Figure 66: Household consumption of cottage cheese, by fat content, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of cottage cheese by brand and by cohort group
- Figure 67: Household consumption of cottage cheese, by brand, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Kids' Consumption of Cheese
Key points
Overview
Cheese consumption versus milk consumption
- Figure 68: Children' s consumption of cheese, by gender, April 2007-June 2008
Younger children more likely than older to consume string and chunk cheese
- Figure 69: Children' s consumption of cheese, by gender and age, April 2007-June 2008
Cheese Consumption by Race and Hispanic Origin
Key points
Lactose intolerance plays a role in cheese consumption among blacks and Asians in particular
Despite lactose allergies, cheese consumption is common among most races/ethnicities
- Figure 70: Personal consumption of cheese, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2009
- Figure 71: Household consumption of cheese, by type, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2009
Source of cheese
Convenience stores
- Figure 72: Buy cheese from a convenience store--regularly, occasionally or never, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2009
Club stores
- Figure 73: Buy cheese from a club store--regularly, occasionally or never, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2009
Appendix: Simmons Cohorts
- Figure 103: Married couples cohorts
- Figure 104: Single women cohorts
- Figure 105: Single men cohorts
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
- Figure 106: Personal consumption of cheese, by household income, February 2009
- Figure 107: Buy cheese from a convenience store--regularly, occasionally or never, by age, February 2009
- Figure 108: Buy cheese from a club store--regularly, occasionally or never, by gender, February 2009
- Figure 109: Buy cheese from a club store--regularly, occasionally or never, by household income, February 2009
- Figure 110: Frequency of eating cheese (meals per week), by gender, February 2009
Consumption of cream cheese by fat/flavor content and by cohort group
- Figure 111: Household consumption of cream cheese, by fat and flavor, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of cream cheese by form and by cohort group
- Figure 112: Household consumption of cream cheese, by type, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of grated cheese by cohort group
- Figure 113: Household consumption of grated cheese, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of grated cheese by type and by cohort group
- Figure 114: Household consumption of grated cheese, by type, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of spreadable cheese by cohort group
- Figure 115: Household consumption of spreadable cheese, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of spreadable cheese by form and by cohort group
- Figure 116: Household consumption of spreadable cheese, by form, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Consumption of spreadable cheese by brand and by cohort group
- Figure 117: Household consumption of spreadable cheese, by brand, by top and bottom cohort groups, July 2007-September 2008
Appendix: Trade Associations

Cheese - US - May 2009

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