European Retail Forecasts to 2014 - Europe - June 2009

Table of Contents

• Summary and Outlook
• GDP contraction and slow recovery
• Consumers cut back on spending
• Unemployment to rise steadily
• Consumers more selective, retailers more audacious
• What lies ahead?
• Retail sales forecasts
  • Figure 1: Europe: Retail sales forecasts, by country, 2008-14
  • Figure 2: Europe: Forecast growth rates (in€ at current prices), by country, 2009-14
• 2009 -- glad to see the back of it
  • Figure 3: Europe: Forecast growth rates (in local currency at current prices), by country, 2008-09
• Staggered recovery
  • Figure 4: Europe: Forecast retail sales recovery to 2008 levels (in local currency), by country
• Non-store -- the star performer
  • Figure 5: Europe: Forecast growth rates, by sector (in€ at current prices), 2009-14(f)
  • Figure 6: Europe: Year-on-year forecast growth rates. by sector (in€ at current prices), 2009-14
• Technical Notes
• Report scope
• Methodology
• Retail sales
• 2008 data
• NACE classifications
• Food retailers
• Mixed goods retailers
• Clothing retailers
• Household goods retailers
• Miscellaneous specialists
• Accuracy and veracity in retail sales data
• Other technical matters
  • Figure 7: European internet suffixes
  • Figure 8: Average annual exchange rates for non-euro currencies, 2003-08
• Financial definitions
• Rounding errors
• VAT
• Figure 9: Europe: Standard VAT rates, 2009
• Other abbreviations
• Austria
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 10: Austria: All retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 11: Austria: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 12: Austria: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Belgium
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 13: Belgium: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 14: Belgium: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 15: Belgium: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Bulgaria
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 16: Bulgaria: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 17: Bulgaria: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 18: Bulgaria: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 19: Bulgaria: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14
• Croatia
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 20: Croatia: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 21: Croatia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 22: Croatia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 23: Croatia: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14 (f)
• Czech Republic
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 24: Czech Republic: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 25: Czech Republic: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 26: Czech Republic: Retail sales forecast by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 27: Czech Republic: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14 (f)
• Denmark
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 28: Denmark: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 29: Denmark: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 30: Denmark: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 31: Denmark: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14 (f)
• Estonia
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 32: Estonia: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 33: Estonia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 34: Estonia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 35: Estonia: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Finland
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 36: Finland: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 37: Finland: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 38: Finland: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• France
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 39: France: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 40: France: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 41: France: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Germany
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 42: Germany: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 43: Germany: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 44: Germany: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Greece
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 45: Greece: Sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 46: Greece: Retail sales forecasts, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 47: Greece: Historical and forecast retail sales growth (€), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Hungary
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 48: Hungary: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 49: Hungary: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 50: Hungary: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 51: Hungary: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Ireland
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 52: Ireland: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 53: Ireland: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 54: Ireland: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Italy
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 55: Italy: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 56: Italy: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 57: Italy: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Latvia
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 58: Latvia: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 59: Latvia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 60: Latvia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 61: Latvia: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Lithuania
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 62: Lithuania: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 63: Lithuania: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 64: Lithuania: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 65: Lithuania: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Luxembourg
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 66: Luxembourg: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 67: Luxembourg: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 68: Luxembourg: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Netherlands
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 69: Netherlands: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 70: Netherlands: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 71: Netherlands: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Norway
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 72: Norway: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 73: Norway: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 74: Norway: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 75: Norway: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Poland
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 76: Poland: All retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 77: Poland: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 78: Poland: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 79: Poland: Historical and forecast retail sales growth, 2003-08 and 2009-14
• Portugal
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 80: Portugal: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 81: Portugal: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 82: Portugal: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Romania
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 83: Romania: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 84: Romania: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 85: Romania: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 86: Romania: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Russia
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 87: Russia: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 88: Russia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 89: Russia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 90: Russia: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Slovakia
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 91: Slovakia: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 92: Slovakia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 93: Slovakia: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 94: Slovakia: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14
• Slovenia
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 95: Slovenia: All retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 96: Slovenia: Retail sales forecast (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 97: Slovenia: Historical and forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14
• Spain
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 98: Spain: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 99: Spain: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 100: Spain: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Sweden
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 101: Sweden: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 102: Sweden: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 103: Sweden: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 104: Sweden: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• Switzerland
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 105: Switzerland: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 106: Switzerland: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 107: Switzerland: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 108: Switzerland: Historic and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14(f)
• UK
• Introduction
• Economic outlook
• The retail market
• Retail sales forecast
  • Figure 109: UK: Retail sales as % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 110: UK: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (local currency), 2008-14
  • Figure 111: UK: Retail sales forecast, by major sector (€), 2008-14
  • Figure 112: UK: Historical and forecast growth rates (local currency at current prices), by major sector, 2003-08 and 2009-14
• Clothing and Footwear Retailers
• Introduction
• Sector performance and trends
• Forecast
  • Figure 113: European clothing retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 114: European clothing retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
  • Figure 115: European clothing retailers: Forecast growth rates (in Euros at current prices), 2009-14(f)
• Department and Variety Stores
• Introduction
• Sector performance and trends
• Forecast
  • Figure 116: European department and variety stores: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 117: European department and variety stores: Sales by country, 2008-14
  • Figure 118: European department and variety stores: Forecast growth rates (in Euros at current prices), 2009-14(f)
• DIY Retailers
• Introduction
• Sector performance and trends
• Forecast
  • Figure 119: European DIY retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 120: European DIY retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
  • Figure 121: European DIY retailers: Forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2009-14(f)
• Electricals Retailers
• Introduction
• Sector performance and trends
• Forecast
  • Figure 122: European electricals retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 123: European electricals retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
  • Figure 124: European electricals retailers: Forecast growth rates (Euros at current prices), 2009-14(f)
• Food Retailers
• Introduction
• Sector performance and trends
• Forecast
  • Figure 125: European food retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 126: European food retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
  • Figure 127: European food retailers: Forecast growth rates (in euros at current prices), 2009-14(f)
• Furniture Retailers
• Introduction
• Sector performance and trends
• Forecast
  • Figure 128: European furniture retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 129: European furniture retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
  • Figure 130: European furniture retailers: Forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2009-14(f)
• Health and Beauty Retailers
• Introduction
• Sector performance and trends
• Forecast
  • Figure 131: European health and beauty retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 132: European health and beauty retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
  • Figure 133: European health and beauty retailers: Forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2009-14(f)
• Miscellaneous Specialist Retailers
• Introduction
• Sector performance and trends
• Forecast
  • Figure 134: European miscellaneous specialist retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 135: European miscellaneous specialist retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
  • Figure 136: European miscellaneous specialist retailers: Forecast growth rates (€ at current prices), 2009-2014(f)
• Non-Store Retailers
• Introduction
• Sector performance and trends
• Forecast
  • Figure 137: European non-store retailers: As % of all European retail sales, 2003-14
  • Figure 138: European non-store retailers: Sales by country, 2008-14
  • Figure 139: European non-store retailers: Forecast growth rates (in euros at current prices), 2009-14(f)
• Appendix
• Europe -- Background data
• Overview
• The big five economies
• Wealthiest and poorest markets
  • Figure 140: Europe: GDP, consumer spending and retail sales per capita, by country, 2008
• Fastest growing markets
  • Figure 141: Europe: Fastest growing economies, GDP (current prices) growth, 2004-08
  • Figure 142: Europe: Fastest growing retail markets, 2004-08
• Summary tables
• Population
  • Figure 143: Europe: Population, by country, 2004-08
• GDP
  • Figure 144: Europe: GDP, by country, 2004-08
• Consumer expenditure
  • Figure 145: Europe: Total consumer expenditure (current prices), 2004-08
• Inflation
  • Figure 146: Europe: Consumer price index, by country, 2004-08
• All retail sales
  • Figure 147: Europe: Retail sales, by country, 2004-08