Table of Contents
- Issues in the Market
- Main issues
- TGI lifestage definitions
- Abbreviations
- Market in Brief
- Slower income growth and increased reliability causing longer replacement
cycles
- Collapse in demand results in launch of incentives
- Consequences for demand when the incentives end
- Demand shifting to diesel
- Spain is Western Europe' s growth market
- Small cars are the key segment, but...
- ... families and empty nest households are the key market
- An ingrained structural weakness
- Internal Market Environment
- Key points
- Cars in use -- Spain has fastest rate of car parc growth
- Figure 1: Passenger cars in use in Germany, France, Great Britain and
Spain, 2002-07
- Figure 2: Passenger cars in use in Germany, France, Great Britain and
Spain, 2002-07
- Age profile of cars in use
- Figure 3: Passenger cars in use, by age in Germany, France, Great
Britain and Spain, 2007
- Figure 4: Number of passenger cars in use, by age in Germany, France,
Great Britain and Spain, 2007
- Figure 5: Proportion of passenger cars in use, by age in Germany,
France, Great Britain and Spain, 2007
- Car ownership -- multiple car ownership increasing
- Figure 6: Trends in car ownership in Great Britain, Germany, France and
Spain, 2004-08
- Car replacement cycles lengthening
- Figure 7: Trends in new and replacement demand in Great Britain,
Germany, France and Spain, 2006-08
- Frequency of purchasing is reducing
- Figure 8: Trends in frequency of purchasing in Great Britain, Germany,
France and Spain, 2004-08
- New and used car purchasing
- Figure 9: Trends in new and used car purchasing in Great Britain,
Germany, France and Spain, 2004-08
- Demand shifting to diesel
- Figure 10: Type of engine in most recently purchased car in Great
Britain, Germany, France and Spain, 2004-08
- But low take-up of alternative fuels
- Differences in car purchase prices
- Figure 11: Purchase cost of a car, new and used, in Great Britain,
Germany, France and Spain, 2008
- Price-point overlap
- Figure 12: Purchase cost overlap for new and used cars, in Great
Britain, Germany, France and Spain, 2008
- Car taxation
- Figure 13: Tax as a percentage of the net car price (based on a 2000cc
capacity car), EU 15 countries, 2008
- Figure 14: New registrations of cars under 120g CO2/km emissions in
Western Europe, 1997-2007
- Incentives and scrappage schemes
- Figure 15: Car scrappage schemes in Germany, France, UK and Spain, May
2009
- Impact of scrappage schemes
- Figure 16: Trend in monthly car sales in Germany, France, UK and Spain,
January 2008-June 2009
- Figure 17: Percentage growth in monthly car sales in selected EU
countries, May-June 2009
- Advantages and disadvantages of scrappage schemes
- What happens when the incentives end?
- Broader Market Environment
- Key points
- UK and Spain fastest growth economies
- Figure 18: Trends in gross domestic product in Germany, France, UK and
Spain, 2003-13
- Figure 19: Trend indices of gross domestic product in Germany, France,
UK and Spain, 2003-13
- Spain has fastest PDI growth rate
- Figure 20: Trends in personal disposable income in Germany, France, UK
and Spain, 2003-13
- Figure 21: Trend indices of personal disposable income in Germany,
France, UK and Spain, 2003-13
- Spain also has fastest rate of spending growth
- Figure 22: Trends in consumer expenditure in Germany, France, UK and
Spain, 2003-13
- Figure 23: Trend indices of consumer expenditure in Germany, France, UK
and Spain, 2003-13
- Modest population growth in developed markets
- Figure 24: Population trends in Germany, France, UK and Spain, 2003-13
- Figure 25: Population trends in Germany, France, UK and Spain, 2003-13
- Cultural and economic differences
- Increasing homogeneity?
- Fragmentation of lifestyles
- Attitudes towards cars
- Figure 26: Attitudes towards cars in Great Britain, Germany, France and
Spain, 2008
- The French most possessive...
- ... for the Spanish the car is a commodity...
- ... for the British a car is important for their leisure...
- ... and for the Germans the car is an extension of themselves
- Figure 27: Purchase cost of a car, new and used, in Great Britain,
Germany, France and Spain, 2008
- Market Size and Trends
- Key points
- Spain has been the new car growth market...
- Figure 28: Trends in new car sales in Germany, UK, France and Spain,
1998-2008
- Figure 29: Trends in new car sales in the EU 15 countries, 1990-2008
- ...while demand fell in Germany, France and UK
- Germany is largest market in EU 15 countries
- Figure 30: New car sales in EU 15 countries, 2008
- Figure 31: New car sales per 1,000 population in EU 15, 2008
- Market forecasts
- Figure 32: Volume of new car sales in Germany, France, UK and Spain,
2004-14
- Factors used in the forecast
- Market segmentation
- Small and lower medium segments are mainstay of market
- Figure 33: Percentage of new car sales, by segment in Germany, France,
UK and Spain, 2007
- But larger models important for profitability
- Figure 34: Trends in new car sales segments in Germany, France, UK and
Spain, 2006-08
- Small car sales relatively stable
- Lower medium and executive segments have declined
- Current trends show small cars taking a larger share of sales
- Figure 35: Trends in new car sales segments in Germany, France, UK and
Spain, 2007 and Jan-Apr 2009
- Sales of diesel-fuelled cars have risen fast
- Figure 36: Trends in sales of diesel fuelled cars in Germany, France, UK
and Spain, 1998 and Jan -May 2009
- National demand patterns still influenced by domestic manufacturers
- The Consumer
- Key points
- Car ownership profiles
- Figure 37: Profile of household car ownership, in Great Britain,
Germany, France and Spain, 2008
- Car purchase penetration -- Great Britain
- Figure 38: Penetration of new and used car purchasing (only or most
recently obtained car), Great Britain, 2008
- Car purchase penetration -- Germany
- Figure 39: Penetration of new and used car purchasing (only or most
recently obtained car), Germany, 2008
- Car purchase penetration -- France
- Figure 40: Penetration of new and used car purchasing (only or most
recently obtained car), France, 2008
- Car purchase penetration -- Spain
- Figure 41: Penetration of new and used car purchasing (only or most
recently obtained car), Spain, 2008
- New car purchase factors: Wide variation between countries
- Figure 42: Most important new car purchase features, in Great Britain,
Germany, France and Spain, 2008
- Used car purchase factors: Price is the main criteria
- Figure 43: Most important used car purchase features, in Great Britain,
Germany, France and Spain, 2008
- Purchase intentions
- Figure 44: Purchase intentions in Great Britain, Germany, France and
Spain in next twelve months, 2008
- Figure 45: Purchase intentions in Great Britain, Germany, France and
Spain in next twelve months, 2008
- Conclusions
- Appendix
- Figure 46: Other car scrappage schemes in operation in EU, 2008/09
- Figure 47: Profile of new and second-hand car purchasing (only car or
most recently obtained household car), in Great Britain, 2008
- Figure 48: Profile of new and second-hand car purchasing (only car or
most recently obtained household car), in Germany, 2008
- Figure 49: Profile of new and second-hand car purchasing (only car or
most recently obtained household car), in France, 2008
- Figure 50: Profile of new and second-hand car purchasing (only car or
most recently obtained household car), in Spain, 2008
- Figure 51: Most important new car purchase features, in Great Britain,
Germany, France and Spain, 2008
- Figure 52: Most important used car purchase features, in Great Britain,
Germany, France and Spain, 2008
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