Abstract
After much delay, Chinas 3G licenses are expected to be issued during the
first half of 2006, with network buildouts are expected soon after. This
Norson report provides a clear and comprehensive overview of Chinas current
mobile market, anticipated licensing, and investment forecasts for the next
five years.
3G Trials
This report contains a comprehensive look at each round of 3G network
equipment trials. By looking at the locations and participating vendors,
readers can gain a preview into likely 3G buildout patterns for each operator.
Norson analyzes this data on a provincial basis, and by vendor, showing the
number of Node Bs and MSC for each of Chinas 3G trial networks.
3G Licensing
With 3G licenses delayed in part to allow time for the development of
TD-SCDMA, the most recent trials indicate that Chinas domestic 3G standard is
finally ready for commercial use.
In what Norson views as the most likely licensing scenario, the Chinese
government will decide to place two strong operators in opposition to China
Mobile. China Mobile, generally viewed as the operator in the best position
heading into 3G, will receive a WCDMA license. China Unicom will keep its CDMA
network and be granted a license to upgrade to CDMA2000 1x EV-DO. China
Telecom and China Netcom will both receive a separate nationwide TD-SCDMA
licenses.
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