China 3G Market

This report analyses the development of China' s 3G telecom market, and provides a market update and forecast as of the beginning of 2008.

We will provide overviews and business development model analyses of the current status of three major 3G technologies - TD-SCDMA, WCDMA and CDMA2000. We will pay particular attention to the domestically developed TD-SCDMA standard, as this is expected to be the major area of 3G development in China for the next few years. China Mobile conducted large-scale TD-SCDMA equipment bidding and network construction in 2007, and we will present an updated TD-SCDMA value chain analysis based on this network construction as well as recent developments.

In addition to being a major 3G standard in its own right, TD-SCDMA will also determine the timing of 3G license issuance for all other standards. We believe that it will take most of 2008 for China Mobile to optimize its current TD-SCDMA networks and to further test network features and terminal functionality. China' s long-awaited 3G licenses will only be released once TD-SCDMA network stability is judged to be satisfactory, with licenses being released either together or one by one with small time intervals.

We will also pay very close attention to telecom industry restructuring, another important factor influencing China' s 3G market landscape and licenses release schedule. We believe that reorganization is very likely to take place in 2008, in order to improve competition in the industry and create multi-service telecom operators.

Based on our analysis of the most likely telecom operator restructuring and 3G licenses distribution scenarios, we will make quantitative forecasts of the prospects for China' s 3G market. Ultimately, we believe that TD-SCDMA will eventually be able to make a successful commercial debut but that there will also be space for other standards to develop in China. China' s healthy macroeconomic environment will mean that the country will enjoy a strong 3G ecosystem.