Next-generation access development: defining trends

Table of Contents

• Executive summary
• In a nutshell
• Key messages
• Fibre is paving the way for new access networks owned by new entities
• The impact of FTTx will be significant, but it' s a long-term play
• Infrastructure-based competition will remain the driving force in many markets
• Expect new models to emerge, both now and in the longer term
• Infrastructure-sharing and joint ventures will be far more prevalent
• Service-based competition will be more prevalent in less dense areas
• Wholesale access products will be much more important in certain markets
• Expect significant differences in next-generation market dynamics
• The NGA context
• A consequence of next-generation technology
• The implications of IP migration
• Fibre drivers: ICT is underpinning economic and social development
• Tangible NGA benefits: be patient
• Fibre drivers: stakeholder perspectives
• The incumbent perspective
• The existing network competitor perspective
• The new entrant infrastructure player perspective
• The regulatory perspective
• Can NGA level the playing field? That depends
• NGA deployments: global evolution
• NGA has momentum, but is a mid- to long-term play
• Globally, incumbent deployment rules...
• ...but alternative investment is strong in Europe
• Dealing with the legacy
• Incumbents: sweating copper; leveraging xDSL technology advances
• NGA and competition: all about the network
• Competition: the life-blood of growth and innovation
• The most successful competitors today are network players
• No network, no business model?
• Altnets are moving up the ladder
• Infrastructure-based competition will remain the norm
• Service-based competition requires development
• Facilitating competitor access: key challenges
• NGA remedies will not follow on neatly from well-established mechanisms
• NGA: headline trends
• A more diverse and dynamic market?
• Expect more infrastructure-sharing
• Greater public intervention will influence direction
• The rise of geographic differentiation
• Public- private partnerships will feature strongly
• In some markets they will change the landscape significantly
• In other markets they will play an important complementary role

List of Tables

• Table 1: Factors influencing NGA development in various countries
• Table 2: ‘Non-telco' deployments of FTTH/B, 4Q08
• Table 3: Selected incumbent plans for NGA deployment
• Table 4: Leading competitors and their networks in selected markets, 4Q08
• Table 5: Free' s reported margins for broadband access
• Table 6: National plans in three AP markets: key parameters

List of Figures

• Figure 1: FTTH/B connections by country (year-end 2008)
• Figure 2: Regional forecasts for FTTH/B and overall consumer broadband connections, 2008- 2014
• Figure 3: Percentage of competitor versus incumbent DSL lines, 3Q08
• Figure 4: The sweet spot for telcos
• Figure 5: NGA directions
• Figure 6: Multiple approaches to NGA
• Figure 7: A blend of infrastructure and service competition