Abstract
The continuation in fixed-to-mobile substitution (FMS)
The move towards mobile both in terms of lines and calls as a replacement for
fixed PSTN voice calling will continue. The ubiquity of mobile means it will
become the primary voice communication device in Europe over the next decade.
It is our view that FMS will continue unabated at a call level, although the
numbers that cut the cord (dispose of their fixed line altogether) will
stabilise in developed/mature markets in the short term, and in emerging
markets in the longer term. The need for Internet access will remain a strong
driver in retaining fixed lines in countries with no naked DSL available,
although mobile technologies are expected to mature and so provide a wireless
broadband experience
The increasing popularity of VoIP
VoIP continues to grow in popularity, although there is a major discrepancy
between registered and actual users - the former is much higher than the
latter. Hence it is dangerous to extrapolate call volumes based on subscriber
numbers.
VoIP comes in three flavours: direct access (voice over broadband as offered
by Yahoo in Japan); indirect access (voice over broadband and public Internet,
as offered by Vonage); and soft-client (software-enabled voice on a PDA, PC or
gaming console using a headset, for example Skype). With both direct and
indirect access there are subscription fees, but not for soft-client
applications. In all three variants all on-net calling (VoIP-to-VoIP customers
of the same supplier) is free, although off-net (calls that break out of the
Internet to non-VoIP customers) are charged.
The established trend in VoIP growth will continue, although there is evidence
to suggest that a large proportion of those customers in mature markets that
want VoIP services now have it. We anticipate Group 2 markets will become
similar in nature to Group 1 markets during the period covered by this study.
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