Abstract
Overview
For those needing high level strategic analysis, statistics and forecasts of
Australia' s mobile market, this report identifies business opportunities,
points out the hype and the pitfalls, and will be of assistance in making the
right business decisions.
It provides essential reading and gives in-depth information on:
- Mobile statistics, revenues, ARPU, market shares and forecasting to 2011,
split by operator;
- 3G operators and network infrastructure overviews;
- Mobile handset market including key players and statistics;
- Mobile retail market;
- Mobile satellite market;
- Mobile spectrum developments.
Key highlights:
- The mobile industry in Australia has changed significantly with the merger
of the third and fourth-largest mobile network operators Vodafone and
Hutchison Australia to form the company VHA. The merger will fundamentally
alter the competitive landscape for the industry. If VHA is successful in the
longer term the company may challenge both Optus and Telstra in an effort to
become the largest mobile service provider in Australia, as Vodafone already
is in New Zealand and many other important markets.
- There is a small chance that Australia' s economy may enter a recession in
2010, or more likely growth will be fairly flat. This may translate into
falling demand for certain telecommunications product and services. However,
as consumers and businesses scrutinise discretionary spending some telephony
products may become more popular. The migration of mobile subscribers to
capped plans may accelerate, especially among the high spending consumer and
business segments.
- Growth in the overall number of services is also driven by net migration
of people to Australia. The ABS estimates that net migration to Australia in
2009 and 2010 is roughly a little more than 200,000 people per year. Growth in
the number of people using two mobile subscriptions is also driven by
increasing business usage. Very few individuals need more than one mobile
service but an increasing number of business people are being equipped with
handsets. As a result, BuddeComm estimates that the overall market may
increase by between 300,000 and 400,000 new business connections in 2010.
- In the first half of 2009 Telstra and Optus outperformed Vodafone and
Hutchison. However it is likely that this has been at significant cost in
terms of acquisition charges. In the second half of 2009 and 2010, BuddeComm
expects that Telstra and Optus will retreat in their all-out attempts to
acquire customers, while VHA will market itself aggressively in a bid to
increase its market share.
- Total mobile services revenue earned by the major mobile operators in the
financial year to 2009 surged surprisingly despite difficult broader economic
conditions in Australia. The industry as a whole earned around $14.3 billion
in revenue from mobile services, a growth rate of nearly 10% year-on-year.
Revenue growth slowed sharply in the first half of 2008 perhaps even turning
negative as consumers reduced discretionary spending in the early stages of
the global financial crisis. Growth for the full financial year was around 3%.
In 2010 the mobile industry as a whole is expected to earn more than $15
billion for the first time. Revenue growth is likely to be moderate at around
5% unless economic conditions become significantly worse, perhaps as a result
of a second financial crisis.
- The mobile retail market in 2009 continues to be dominated by vertically
integrated retail chains which are directly affiliated with a single major
mobile operator. In addition to the operator branded stores a large number of
smaller retail chains and independent mobile retailers continue to compete. As
economic conditions have worsened in 2009 consolidation among retailers has
occurred and many retail operators have closed.
- The handset market in Australia is dominated by Nokia, which commands a
market share of around 40%, with a number of smaller vendors all maintaining
market shares of between 10% and 15%. However, in 2009 these dominant vendors
face increasing competition from smaller competitors such as HTC and Apple.
Due to a difficult economic climate generally in Australia growth in handset
sales in 2009 and 2010 is expected to be minimal, despite a short-term boost
to sales from the government' s economic stimulus packages in early 2009.
This annual report provides the reader with a through overview of the mobile
communications market in Australia in 2009 and shares important analysis of
the market in 2010 and beyond.
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