2006 The Fibre Report - Global Overview and Technologies

Table of Contents

1. THE FTTH MARKET IN 2006

• 1.1FttH analysis - mid 2006
  • 1.1.1DSL is building the business case for FttH
  • 1.1.2Growth patterns and predictions
  • 1.1.3Fibre-to-the-Node and VDSL
  • 1.1.4Where is the current action in FttH
    • 1.1.4.1Business market
    • 1.1.4.2Infrastructure upgrades
    • 1.1.4.3New housing developments
  • 1.1.5Telcos still reluctant
  • 1.1.6Business opportunities for FttH niche telcos
  • 1.1.7Alternative infrastructure developments
  • 1.1.8The costs of FttH
    • 1.1.8.1AT&T estimates
• 1.2Reviewing the current status of FttH
  • 1.2.1No business case for large-scale deployments
  • 1.2.2Business drivers
• 1.3Initial drivers: utilities and local councils
• 1.4Structural separation a must for FTTH
• 1.5Regional overviews
  • 1.5.1Introduction
  • 1.5.2USA - trailing behind Asia
  • 1.5.3Canada - early stages
  • 1.5.4Latin america - rapid pace
  • 1.5.5Europe - Fttx kicked off by utilities and local councils
  • 1.5.6Asia - bucking the trend
  • 1.5.7Africa - Lack of infrastructure

2. BROADBAND INFRASTRUCTURE

• 2.1FttH issues
  • 2.1.1'Build and they will come' - back in favour
  • 2.1.2Optical communications
  • 2.1.3FttC definitions
  • 2.1.4Future infrastructure - strategic analysis
    • 2.1.4.1Future scenario planning
    • 2.1.4.2From telecommunications to information highway
    • 2.1.4.3Converging networks
    • 2.1.4.3.1ATM didn't quite make it
    • 2.1.4.3.2Developments based on the Web
    • 2.1.4.3.3Merging ATM and IP
  • 2.1.5Fibre-based access
    • 2.1.5.1Early trials - brief overview
    • 2.1.5.2Massive changes in network management
    • 2.1.5.3Migration patterns
  • 2.1.6The nationwide road to FttH will take 10-15 years
  • 2.1.7Fibre-to-the-Node (FttN)
    • 2.1.7.1Analysis - early 2006
    • 2.1.7.1.1Well-suited for monopolists
    • 2.1.7.1.2FttN anti-competitive
    • 2.1.7.1.3Facilities-based competition?
    • 2.1.7.1.4Incumbents want domination across all services
    • 2.1.7.1.5Urgent government leadership required
    • 2.1.7.1.6Weeks later, delays announced
  • 2.1.8Blown Fibre
    • 2.1.8.1Introduction
    • 2.1.8.2System overview
    • 2.1.8.3Key components
    • 2.1.8.4Applications
• 2.2FttH first deployments
  • 2.2.1Introduction

3. TECHNOLOGY

• 3.1Introduction
• 3.2Customer needs
  • 3.2.1Downstream data rates
  • 3.2.2Upstream data rates
  • 3.2.3QoS
  • 3.2.4POTS, reliability and backup powering
  • 3.2.5Video
  • 3.2.6Business requirements
• 3.3Needs of telecommunications carriers
  • 3.3.1Reach and equipment location
  • 3.3.2Redundancy and switchover times
  • 3.3.3OAM - Operations Administration and Maintenance
  • 3.3.4Support for 'legacy' services
  • 3.3.5Regulatory requirements
• 3.4Standards organisations and industry bodies
  • 3.4.1ITU-T
  • 3.4.2FSAN
  • 3.4.3IEEE - Ethernet in the First Mile (EFM)
  • 3.4.4Metro Ethernet Forum
  • 3.4.5EFM Consortium
• 3.5Architectural considerations
  • 3.5.1Point-to-point vs. PON
    • 3.5.1.1Active optical network - star topology
    • 3.5.1.2Passive Optical Network - PON
  • 3.5.2Optics for single-fibre operation
    • 3.5.2.1Integration and mass-production
    • 3.5.2.2Sub-optimal attenuation
    • 3.5.2.3Laser power and link budgets
    • 3.5.2.4Dispersion limits
    • 3.5.2.5Extending capacity in the future
  • 3.5.3Video distribution at 1550nm
    • 3.5.3.1Complex modulation at OLT
    • 3.5.3.2Distance limits
    • 3.5.3.3ONU and PON requirements
  • 3.5.4'Carrier grade' reliability and management
    • 3.5.4.1Connectivity layer OAM
    • 3.5.4.2Services layer OAM
  • 3.5.5Ethernet-centric vs. other transport mechanisms
    • 3.5.5.1Pseudowires
    • 3.5.5.2Longer Ethernet frames
• 3.6Alternative fibre strategies
  • 3.6.1Single mode fibre problems
  • 3.6.2Plastic Optical Fibre - POF
  • 3.6.3Air-blown Fibre
• 3.7Metro Ethernet services
  • 3.7.1Symmetrical data rates
  • 3.7.2E-Line Ethernet Line Service
  • 3.7.3E-LAN Ethernet LAN Service
• 3.8ITU G.983 APON/BPON
  • 3.8.1Protection switching difficult in a PON
  • 3.8.2RF video wavelength
• 3.9ITU G.984 GPON37
• 3.10ITU G.985 Point-to-point
• 3.11802.3ah Point-to-Point
• 3.12802.3ah EPON
  • 3.12.1Chinese proposals for 802.2ah
    • 3.12.1.1Circuit emulation
  • 3.12.22 10Gb/s 802.3ah EPONs
    • 3.12.2.1Power and scattering problems
    • 3.12.2.2Dispersion limits
• 3.13Fttc and VDSL
  • 3.13.1Introduction
    • 3.13.1.1Historical Background
    • 3.13.1.1.1Triple play demand
  • 3.13.2Single and multi-carrier modulation techniques
    • 3.13.2.1QAM or CAP - Carrierless Amplitude Phase
    • 3.13.2.1.1CAP's difficulty with multipath
  • 3.13.3DMT - OFDM
    • 3.13.3.1Multiple sub-carriers and long symbol times
    • 3.13.3.2Impulse rejection
    • 3.13.3.3Narrowband interference rejection
    • 3.13.3.4Minimising outgoing interference
    • 3.13.3.5Adapting to noise conditions
    • 3.13.3.6Digital duplexing
  • 3.13.4Early, non-ITU, standards
    • 3.13.4.1Fast and slow channels
    • 3.13.4.2ETSI TM 06
    • 3.13.4.3ANSI T1.424
    • 3.13.4.4Ethernet in the First Mile - IEEE 802.3ah
    • 3.13.4.4.1Bonding and multiple lines
    • 3.13.4.4.2EFM VDSL Applications
    • 3.13.4.5ITU G.993.1
    • 3.13.4.6Frequency Plans
    • 3.13.4.6.1Lower limit
    • 3.13.4.6.2Upper limit
    • 3.13.4.6.3G.993.1 band-plans
    • 3.13.4.6.4Attenuation and crosstalk
  • 3.13.5ITU G.993.2 VDSL2
    • 3.13.5.1Trellis coding
    • 3.13.5.2VDSL2 profiles
    • 3.13.5.2.1ADSL compatibility
    • 3.13.5.2.2Transmit Power Backoff
    • 3.13.5.2.3Bonding
    • 3.13.5.2.4Dynamic Spectrum Management
    • 3.13.5.2.5Vectoring and MIMO - Multiple In Multiple Out
    • 3.13.5.2.6Packet Transfer Mode
    • 3.13.5.2.7Short packets and pre-emption
  • 3.13.6Ethernet rather than ATM for DSL
    • 3.13.6.1Multicast IP
    • 3.13.6.2Architectural diversity
    • 3.13.6.3Broadband Loop Carriers (BLC)
  • 3.13.7Competition implications
    • 3.13.7.1Centralised spectrum management
    • 3.13.7.2Synchronisation precludes multiple DSLAMs
    • 3.13.7.3Power and installation space
  • 3.13.8ADSL2+/VDSL Futures
  • 3.13.9Fibre WDM
    • 3.13.9.1Historical perspective
    • 3.13.9.2Optical fibre links
    • 3.13.9.2.1PDH fibre-optic links
    • 3.13.9.2.2Wavelength division multiplexing
    • 3.13.9.2.2.1Fibres, attenuation, dispersion and distortion
    • 3.13.9.2.2.1.1Ideal fibre
    • 3.13.9.2.2.1.2Chromatic dispersion
    • 3.13.9.2.2.1.3Polarisation Mode Dispersion
    • 3.13.9.2.2.1.4Distortion
    • 3.13.9.2.2.2Soliton transmission
    • 3.13.9.2.2.3Lasers, modulation and detectors
    • 3.13.9.2.2.4Wavelengths and multiplexing
    • 3.13.9.2.2.5Optical amplification
    • 3.13.9.2.2.5.1EDFAs
    • 3.13.9.2.2.6Raman amplification

4. REGIONAL OVERVIEWS

• 4.1Asia
  • 4.1.1Analysis - Asia bucks the trend with FttH
  • 4.1.2Japan
    • 4.1.2.1Market overview
    • 4.1.2.2Development patterns
    • 4.1.2.3Fibre-to-the-Curb (FttC)
  • 4.1.3South Korea
    • 4.1.3.1Market overview
  • 4.1.4China
    • 4.1.4.1Market overview
    • 4.1.4.2Gigabit Ethernet / Fttx+LAN
  • 4.1.5Other Asian markets
  • 4.1.6Australia
    • 4.1.6.1Telstra's FttN Plan
    • 4.1.6.1.1Ambitious plans
    • 4.1.6.1.2Analysis
    • 4.1.6.1.2.1Well-suited for monopolists
    • 4.1.6.1.2.2FttN anti-competitive
    • 4.1.6.1.2.3Facilities-based competition?
    • 4.1.6.1.2.4Telstra wants domination across all services
    • 4.1.6.1.2.5Urgent government leadership required
    • 4.1.6.1.2.6Government is politicising the issue
    • 4.1.6.1.2.7Within weeks delays were announced
    • 4.1.6.1.3FttN - the need for industry cooperation
    • 4.1.6.1.4Optus-led industry initiative
    • 4.1.6.2Forecasting FttH
    • 4.1.6.3Slow move towards fibre - analysis mid-2006
    • 4.1.6.3.1Mexican Standoff
    • 4.1.6.3.2From HFC to FttH
    • 4.1.6.3.3The Foxtel anomaly
    • 4.1.6.3.4Iron grip on facilities
    • 4.1.6.3.5Still running behind
    • 4.1.6.3.6New FttH networks
    • 4.1.6.3.6.1Becoming cost effective
    • 4.1.6.3.6.2Telstra obstacles
    • 4.1.6.3.6.3Government leadership
    • 4.1.6.3.6.4Industry scenarios
    • 4.1.6.3.6.5Don't expect miracles
    • 4.1.6.4Regional fibre
    • 4.1.6.4.1Introduction
    • 4.1.6.4.2Fibre-to-the bush delivered to you by the Nationals
    • 4.1.6.4.2.1Fibre-to-the-bush
    • 4.1.6.4.2.2Heavy regulations
    • 4.1.6.4.2.3Comments
    • 4.1.6.4.2.4Interesting twist - Homestead
    • 4.1.6.4.3New government initiative
    • 4.1.6.4.4Fibre Towns in NSW
    • 4.1.6.5Unlock underutilised fibre
    • 4.1.6.6FTTH in new development projects
    • 4.1.6.6.1Market demand
    • 4.1.6.6.2Broadband key issue for developers of real estate
    • 4.1.6.6.3COLT (Ballarat)
  • 4.1.7New Zealand
    • 4.1.7.1Optical cable
    • 4.1.7.2Local metropolitan fibre network initiatives
    • 4.1.7.2.1Inspired Networks - Palmerston CBD network
    • 4.1.7.2.2Vector Communications
    • 4.1.7.2.3Network Tasman
    • 4.1.7.2.3.1TelstraClear's involvement
    • 4.1.7.2.3.2Other projects
    • 4.1.7.2.4Flat Bush
• 4.2Europe
  • 4.2.1Regulatory
  • 4.2.2The European picture in 2006
    • 4.2.2.1Overview
    • 4.2.2.2Ireland
    • 4.2.2.3The Netherlands
    • 4.2.2.3.1Kenniswijk - Eindhoven Smart City Project
    • 4.2.2.3.2Almere project
    • 4.2.2.3.3Arnhem - non-government project
    • 4.2.2.3.4Nuenen
    • 4.2.2.4Italy
    • 4.2.2.5UK
    • 4.2.2.6Denmark
    • 4.2.2.6.1Wireless Community Network - Djurslands.net
    • 4.2.2.7France
    • 4.2.2.8Sweden
    • 4.2.2.8.1Bredbandsbolaget
    • 4.2.2.8.2PiteEnergi
• 4.3North America
  • 4.3.1USA
    • 4.3.1.1FttH
    • 4.3.1.1.1Overview
    • 4.3.1.1.2FttH network rollout
    • 4.3.1.1.3FttH market forecasts
    • 4.3.1.2Government policy and FttH regulation
    • 4.3.1.2.1Government assisted FttH networks
    • 4.3.1.3RBOCFttH roll-out
    • 4.3.1.3.1Verizon Communications
    • 4.3.1.3.2SBC Communications
    • 4.3.1.3.3BellSouth
    • 4.3.1.3.4Qwest
    • 4.3.1.4Community FttH networks
  • 4.3.2Canada
    • 4.3.2.1FttH
    • 4.3.2.1.1Overview
    • 4.3.2.1.2Aliant FttH trials

5. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS

LIST OF TABLES

• Table 1 - FTTH subscribers by region - mid 2006
• Table 2 - Current broadband services
• Table 3 - FttH subscriber growth in Japan - 2001 - 2005
• Table 4 - Projected rollout of fibre networks (FttH and FttN) in USA - 2005 - 2010

LIST OF EXHIBITS

• Exhibit 1 - Residential Broadband (BB) - growth predictions - next ten years
• Exhibit 2 - Access network technologies
• Exhibit 3 - Residential Broadband (BB) - growth predictions - next ten years
• Exhibit 4 - Broadband - Infrastructure blueprint
• Exhibit 5 - Optical fibre access around the world (>1 million subscribers)
• Exhibit 6 - ITU VDSL band-plans
• Exhibit 7 - G.993.2 VDSL2 profiles
• Exhibit 8 - Access node deployment scenarios
• Exhibit 9 - Fibre-to-the-Node (FttN)
• Exhibit 10 - Cooperation scenarios
• Exhibit 11 - Residential Broadband (BB) - growth predictions - next ten years
• Exhibit 12 - Infrastructure blueprint
• Exhibit 13 - FttH prerequisites
• Exhibit 14 - Optical access costs and performance - mid-2005
• Exhibit 15 - Benefits of FttH in new development projects
• Exhibit 16 - Fibre network overview by provider in New Zealand - October 2005
• Exhibit 17 - Fibre optic network build out in USA - October 2005
• Exhibit 18 - FibreWired Network