2006 Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband in the Americas - Geographic

Abstract

With over 1040 pages of research, BuddeComm' s 2006 Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband in the Americas - Geographic series contains a comprehensive analysis of the telecoms industry and the companies involved in it.

This research is divided into the following volumes:

• Volume 1 -Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband in Latin America - The Andean Countries
• Volume 2 -Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband in Latin America - The Mercosur Countries, and Guyana, Suriname, Venezuela
• Volume 3 -Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband in Latin America - Central America
• Volume 4 - Telcoms, Mobile and Broadband in Latin America - Mexico and the Caribbean
• Volume 5 - Telcoms, Mobile and Broadband in Latin America - Overviews
• Volume 6 - Telcoms, Mobile and Broadband in Canada
• Volume 7 - Telcoms, Mobile and Broadband in the USA

LATIN AMERICA

• The Latin American and Caribbean economy grew by 4.5% in 2005, and the region' s per capita GDP is estimated to have risen by about 3%. All Latin American countries recorded positive growth rates, ranging from 1.8% in Haiti to 9.3% in Venezuela.
• Economic expansion is expected to continue unabated in 2006, and ease slightly in 2007. GDP growth for Latin America and the Caribbean is projected to be 4.6% in 2006, and 4.1% in 2007.
• The drive towards consolidation, witnessed in 2004, continued in 2005-2006, with America Movil buying mobile operations in Chile, Peru, and Paraguay; Telecom Italia divesting its investments in Chile, Peru, and Venezuela; and Verizon deciding to pull out of the region altogether. In April 2006, Verizon agreed to sell Verizon Dominicana (Dominican Republic), Telecomunicaciones de Puerto Rico, and CANTV (Venezuela) to America Movil and Telmex.
• Despite a low 17% average teledensity in the whole Latin American and Caribbean region, fixed-line growth continued to stagnate over the last 12 months. Telecom infrastructure varies greatly from country to country and from urban to rural areas.
• There is a marked trend towards the use of alternative systems in fixed-line telephony, especially Wireless Local Loop (WLL) and Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP).
• Broadband grew at an annual rate of around 75% in 2005, making Latin America one of the world' s fastest growing regions in terms of broadband uptake. However, it still accounts for only 3.9% of the world' s broadband pie.
• Latin America' s Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL) subscriber numbers continued to soar in 2005, growing by 88%, while cable modems and other broadband technologies grew at the more modest rate of 50%.
• The Latin American broadband leaders are Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Chile, and in early 2006, these four countries accounted for about 90% of all broadband subscribers in the region.
• In 2005, Latin America was only second to Asia in rolling out WiMAX networks. By April 2006, WiMAX systems were operating in Argentina, Brazil, the Caribbean, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela.
• In March 2005, Chile' s VTR was the first company in Latin America to launch Broadband Powerline (BPL) services commercially, for its residential clients.
• 2005 was a big year for triple play in Latin America, with several countries seeing this strategy for the first time. By early 2006, triple play services had either been launched, or were planned, in the following markets: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, and Uruguay.
• Latin American cable TV grew about 8% during 2005; the best performers were Mexico (+14%), Brazil (+13%), and Colombia (+12%).
• Latin America may see the first deployments of IPTV in 2006, with Brazil, Chile, and Argentina at the forefront. Broadband penetration in the region, however, is still low, and broadband TV is unlikely to become a reality in Latin America until 2007.
• In mid-2005, Brazil' s Telemar conducted a trial of triple play services that included IPTV. Telemar stated that it would make IP-based television available to its customers in the course of 2006. Brasil Telecom also announced that it planned to launch IPTV before the end of 2006. A few Chilean telecom operators are carrying out preliminary IPTV tests.
• TV companies in Mexico began to offer Latin America' s first High-Definition TV (HDTV) services in 2005, following the government' s formal approval of the ATSC standard for Digital Terrestrial TV (DTT) in July 2004.
• In January 2006, the government of Brazil announced plans to conduct DTT tests in June 2006, and launch commercial transmissions in the following September. Brazil signed an agreement with Japan, in April 2006, for the adoption of the Japanese ISDB standard for DTT. Argentina is likely to adopt the same DTT standard as Brazil, and may begin digital TV services in late 2006.
• While fixed lines stagnate, the mobile market continues to grow. In early 2006, there were around 241 million mobile phones in Latin America compared with approximately 96 million fixed-line phones. Paraguay leads the trend, with five times more mobile than fixed-line subscribers.
• Mobile telephony has become one of the fastest growing industries in Latin America, surging by 42% in 2004 and by 38% in 2005.
• Regional mobile penetration stood at around 43% in early 2006, but varies greatly from country to country, with Jamaica,Chile, and Argentina recording the highest rates (apart from the small Caribbean islands) at around 93%, 70%, and 54% respectively, while Haiti and Cuba languish at 5% and 1% respectively. Some of the Caribbean islands have mobile penetration rates of over 100%, the highest of all being Turks & Caicos at 230%.
• In early 2006, three multinational operators served about 77% of Latin America' s mobile market: America Movil, Telefonica Moviles, and Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM).
• In April 2005, Telefonica Moviles adopted the Movistar brandname for all of its operations (except for Brazil, where the Vivo brand was retained) in order to create a unified image internationally. The company manages companies in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Uruguay, and Venezuela.
• TDMA, traditionally the leading mobile technology in Latin America, was overtaken by GSM in March 2005, and by CDMA in late 2005. The number of TDMA subscribers in the region has been falling since 2004.
• In 2005, TDMA subscribers decreased by 21%, CDMA subscribers increased by 41%, and GSM subscribers soared by 133%.
• At end-2005, the number of GSM subscriber was more than double the number of CDMA subscribers. Every country in Latin America and the Caribbean (except Haiti) enjoys GSM-based mobile services. In terms of GSM subscriber numbers, Latin America was one of the fastest growing regions in the world in 2005.
• In early 2006, EDGE technology was being rolled out or was already in service in approximately 30 Latin American and Caribbean countries, including Argentina, Bermuda, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad & Tobago, and Uruguay.
• In early 2006, Latin America had 39% of the world' s CDMA 2000 1xEV-DO networks. Countries with commercially operating cellular 1xEV-DO services included Bermuda, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Puerto Rico, Mexico, Guatemala, and Venezuela. In Argentina and Brazil, 450MHz CDMA 2000 1x and 1xEV-DO networks have been rolled out for WLL.
• In August 2005, the Brazilian telecom regulator announced that it would publish the bidding rules for the sale of 3G licences by the middle of 2006, and would start the auction after the October 2006 General Elections. It stated that 3G services would most likely become available in Brazil by late 2008 or early 2009. In September 2005, Uruguay' s state-owned incumbent, Antel, began to trial a 3G (UMTS) service, with the aim of launching it commercially before the end of 2006.

USA

• The US telecommunications markets continue to undergo significant transformation as technologies converge toward a triple play model of bundled voice, Internet and TV services.
• The downward trend in landline revenues is forecast to steepen due to increasing competition from mobile and new technologies. For instance, mobile revenues are forecast to grow at over 10% CAGR over the next five years, reaching approximately $200 billion in 2010. Similarly VoIP is forecast to treble in subscriber numbers by 2010. In addition, recent substantial investments in WiMAX as a 4G platform indicate that the technology is being considered as a realistic disruptive technology.
• As the cable TV companies move into the telcos' traditional sector with VoIP services, the telcos are responding by aggressively deploying high-bandwidth fibre networks which will chart their path into the IPTV market. These fibre networks, together with the mega-mergers of SBC/AT&T, Verizon/MCI and the pending AT&T Inc/BellSouth acquisition, position the telcos to secure dominance in the broadband market. The extent to which the RBOCs can control the triple play market will depend in part on US policy towards network neutrality and on the extent to which new broadband technologies, such as BPL and WiMAX, will penetrate the market.
• This report presents an overview of the telecom regulatory environment, and examines developments in the wireless sector, in the broadband market and new broadband technologies, in digital TV, Internet use and in the convergence towards triple play services.

CANADA

• By early 2000 Canada' s telecoms and broadband sector was among the most advanced in the world. However, by 2006 Canada' s performance in areas such as broadband penetration and mobile penetration was starting to lag behind its OECD counterparts. This has led to calls for further reform of Canada' s telecommunications regulatory regime to a lighter-handed framework. Hence 2007 and 2008 are likely to be characterised by further regulatory reform towards a more market-based approach.
• During 2006 traditional fixed line voice revenues continued to decline as subscribers switch en masse to mobile services and at even greater growth rates to VoIP services. This trend is forecast to continue during 2007 as VoIP gathers momentum. Additionally, the market will continue its transition to a triple play model, though during 2007 the cable companies are forecast to make greater gains in the telcos' voice sectors than the telcos' gains in the broadcasting sector.