Table of Contents
Chapter 1 Executive Summary
- Four Categories: Skincare, Haircare, Oral Care, Cosmetics
- Skincare
- Haircare
- Oral Care
- Color Cosmetics
- Sales Rocket to $5 Billion in 2004, $7.9 Billion by 2010
- Skincare Breaks $3 Billion Milestone, Will Surpass $4.7 Billion
- Haircare Brushes Past $1 Billion; Forecast Is for $1.7 Billion
- Oral Care in Charge to $589 Million, With $1 Billion Predicted
- Color Cosmetics Pushes to $336 Million, With $486 Million Possible
- Table 1-1 U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Personal Care Products, by Category, 2000-2004 (Dollars in Millions)
- Lets Get Real: We Prefer a Mix of Natural and Non-Natural Products
- Product Efficacy Must Improve
- Some Marketers Justifying Use of Synthetics
- A la Prestige: "Universal" Positioning on Conditions/Concerns
- Potentials in Major Demographic Groups
- Baby Boomers
- Teens/Tweens
- Kids 7 and Under
- Table 1-2 Projected U.S. Population, by Age Bracket, 2005-2020 (In Thousands)
- Ethnic Consumers
- Table 1-3 Projection of U.S. African-American, Asian, and Hispanic Populations, 2005-2010 (In Thousands)
- Men
- Natural Personal Care Marketers Spend $225 Million in 2004
- Exclude J&Js Budget, and the Total Ad Spend Is Pitiful...
- Special Note on Share Data
- J&J, Body Shop, Estee Lauder Still Lead the Pack
- Hain Strongest Natural Specialist in 2005
- Table 1-4 Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Personal Care Products Through All Outlets, by Marketer, 2004 (Dollars in Millions)
- J & J, Toms, Woodridge Lead in Mass
- Two Ethnic-Preferred Brands 4th and 5th in Mass
- Table 1-5 Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Personal Care Products Through Mass Channels (Supermarkets, Chain Drugstores, Mass Merchandisers), by Marketer, 2004 (Dollars in Millions)
- Natural Skincare Product Trends: Cutting-Edge and Exotic Formulations
- Natural Skincare Product Trends: Without, Minus, and Free of...
- Natural Haircare Product Trends: Practical Products -- More Than Just Shampoo
- Natural Haircare Product Trends: Democratic Positionings
- Natural Haircare Product Trends: Exotica
- Natural Oral Care Product Trends: Whiteners Uber Alles
- Natural Oral Care Product Trends: Therapeutics
- Natural Oral Care Product Trends: New Breath Fresheners Are Convenient, Portable
- Natural Color Cosmetics Product Trends: Marketers Still Building Assortment...
- At Least 25,000 Stores in Natural Foods/HBC Channel
- Time to Leverage Opportunities in Mass
- Natural Retailers Want Private Label
- The Consumer: Most Households Buy Something Natural, Half Buy Organic
- The Consumer: But NMI Reckons Fewer Adults Are Buying Organic
- The Consumer: LOHAS Consumers Spend $227 Billion Or More
- The Consumer: Numbers of Users in 27 Brand Data Sets
- Table 1-6 Numbers of Users of Selected Natural Personal Care Products, by Brand, 2004 (Thousands of Adults, In Recent 12 Months -- Except as Noted)
Chapter 2 The Overall Market
- Key Points
- Introduction
- Scope of This Report
- "Natural" vs. "Organic"
- Other Terms Clarified
- Methodology
- The Products
- Four Categories: Skincare, Haircare, Oral Care, Cosmetics
- Commonly Used Ingredients
- Cosmeceutical Value
- The SLF Controversy
- Regulation
- The Natural Personal Care Industry Wants It...
- ...But the USDA Wont Give It
- The Bits of Regulation That Remain in Force
- Overall Market Size and Growth
- Natural Personal Care Rockets to $5 Billion in 2004
- Table 2-1 U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Personal Care Products, by Category, 2000-2004 (Dollars in Millions)
- Skincare Breaks $3 Billion Milestone
- Haircare Brushes Past $1 Billion
- Oral Care in Charge to $589 Million
- Color Cosmetics Pushes to $336 Million
- Mass Accounts for 1 Out of 5 Natural Personal Care Dollars
- Table 2-2 Share of U.S. Mass-Channel (Supermarket, Chain Drugstore, Mass Merchandiser) Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Personal Care Products, by Category, 2004
- With J&J Brands Stripped Out, a Different Retail Picture...
- Table 2-3 U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Personal Care Products, Excluding Johnson & Johnson Brands,* by Category, 2004 (Dollars in Millions)
- Factors in Future Growth
- Lets Get Real: We Prefer a Mix of Natural and Non-Natural Products
- Label-Readers and Self-Treaters
- Beauty Depends on Health
- Environmental Sensitivity
- Natural HBC Carries Higher Price-Points
- Product Efficacy Must Improve
- Some Marketers Justifying Use of Synthetics
- A la Prestige: "Universal" Positioning on Conditions/Concerns
- Potentials in Major Demographic Groups
- Table 2-4 Projected U.S. Population, by Age Bracket, 2005-2020 (In Thousands)
- Table 2-5 Projection of U.S. African-American, Asian, and Hispanic Populations, 2005-2010 (In Thousands)
- Projected Overall Market Sales
- Natural Personal Care to Reach $7.9 Billion by 2010
- Table 2-6 Projected U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Personal Care Products, by Category, 2004-2010 (Dollars in Millions)
- Skincare Category Will Surpass $4.7 Billion
- Haircare to Hit $1.7 Billion
- Oral Care to Become $1 Billion Category
- Color Cosmetics Foreseen at $486 Million
Overall Consumer Advertising Expenditures
- Natural Personal Care Marketers Spend $225 Million in 2004
- Exclude J&Js Budget, and the Total Spend Is Pitiful...
- Five Marketers Are Million-Dollar Advertisers
- Much Hidden Expenditure
Chapter 3 The Natural Skincare Category
- Key Points
- The Products
- Modern Consumers Equate Skin Health with Beauty
- Six Natural Skincare Segments
- Skincare for Ethnic Consumers
- Skincare for Teens/Tweens/Babies
- ...And Skincare for Everybody
- Skincare Category Size and Growth
- Natural Skincare Leaps to $3 Billion in 2004
- Table 3-1 IRI-tracked U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Skincare Products, 2000-2004 (dollars in millions)
- Mass Takes More Than a Fifth of Natural Skincare Dollars
- Table 3-2 Share of U.S. Mass-Channel (Supermarket, Chain Drugstore, Mass Merchandiser) Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Skincare Products, by Segment, 2004 (Dollars in Millions)
- With Sales of J&J Brands Subtracted
- Factors in Future Growth
- Boomers See Wrinkles in Mirror
- A Stressful, Dirty, Dangerous Environment
- Prestige Influencing Natural Skincare Image and Vice Versa
- Day Spas Pop Up Everywhere
- Projected Natural Skincare Sales
- A Record $4.7 Billion Forecast for 2010
- Table 3-3 Projected U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Skincare Products, 2000-2004
- The Marketers
- Among Hundreds of Natural Skincare Marketers, 70 Notables
- A Handful of Marketers Stay Outside of Natural Foods/HBC Channel
- Most Players Are Specialists, and Privately-Held
- Table of Marketers and Brands
- Table 3-4 Leading Marketers of Natural Skincare Products, and Their Representative Brands
- Natural Skincare Product Trends
- Cutting-Edge and/or Exotic Formulations
- Without, Minus, and Free of...
- Table 3-5 Selected Introductions of Natural Skincare Products, 2004-2005
- Consumer Advertising and Promotions
- Natural Skincare Ad Spend Is Over $201 Million in 2004
- Important Note: Without J&J, the Total Drops to $3.1 Million
- J&J, Earth Therapeutics, Ales Lead Small Field of Advertisers
- Lots More Ad Dollars Are Hidden
- Basic Beauty versus Advertorial Strategies
- Two Popular Themes Are Stress Relief and Age-Fighting
- Promos/Website Addresses Included...
- Mainstreamers Advertise in Alternative Lifestyle Mags
Chapter 4 The Natural Haircare Category
- Key Points
- The Products
- Product Types Mirror Those of Mainstream Haircare
- Shampoo and Conditioner
- Styling Products and Treatments
- All Other
- Cosmeceutical Functions
- Category Size and Growth
- Natural Haircare Reaches $1 Billion in 2004
- Table 4-1 IRI-tracked U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Haircare Products, 2000-2004
- Mass Accounts for 1 Out of 10 Natural Haircare Dollars
- Table 4-2 Share of U.S. Mass-Channel (Supermarket, Chain Drugstore, Mass Merchandiser) Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Haircare Products, by Segment, 2004
- But Look at the Numbers Minus J&J
- Factors in Future Growth
- Healthy Hair Is Beautiful Hair
- Every Strand Is Precious
- America Accepts Greater Range of Hairstyles
- African Americans Seek Gentler Haircare Preps
- Kids and Natural Haircare
- Projected Natural Haircare Sales
- Sales of Nearly $1.7 billion in 2010
- Table 4-3 Projected U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Haircare Products, 2004-2010
- The Marketers
- Hundreds of Natural Haircare Marketers, But 60 Are Players
- A Few Marketers Prefer Life Outside Natural Foods/HBC Channel
- Mostly Small Specialists
- Table of Marketers and Brands
- Table 4-4 Leading Marketers of Natural Hair Care Products, and Their Representative Brands
- Natural Haircare Product Trends
- Practical Products: More Than Just Shampoo
- Democratic Positioning
- Exotica
- Table 4-5 Selected Introductions of Natural Haircare Products, 2004-2005
- Consumer Advertising Expenditures and Positioning
- Marketers Spent $11 Million to Advertise in 2004
- Estee and Namaste the Top Advertisers
- More Media Spending Than Reported
- Aveda: Breathtaking Nature and Exotic Ingredients
- Haircare Touted by Association With Skincare
- Natural Media Invaded by Mainstreamers
- Estee Lauder Runs Aveda Promo in an Ad Showcase
Chapter 5 The Natural Oral Care Category
- Key Points
- The Products
- Three Principle Segments
- Tooth Cleaners and Whiteners
- Mouthwash
- Toothbrushes and Floss
- All Other
- The Fluoride Question
- Category Size and Growth
- Natural Oral Care Charges to $589 Million in 2004
- Table 5-1 U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Oral Care Products, 2000-2004 (Dollars in Millions)
- Mass Accounts for 5% of Sales -- At Least
- Table 5-2 Share of U.S. Mass-Channel (Supermarket, Chain Drugstore, Mass Merchandiser) Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Oral Care Products, by Segment, 2004 (Dollars in Millions)
- Factors in Future Growth
- Time Is Right for Natural Oral Care to Explode
- Yet Some Marketers Give in to Fluoride and SLFs
- Whiteners Are Strong Drivers
- For Crossover Biz, High Prices Must Come Down
- Where Are Licensed Natural Toothpastes for Kids?
- Projected Natural Oral Care Sales
- Sales to Surpass $1 Billion Mark in 2010
- Table 5-3 Projected U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Oral Care Products, 2004-2010 (Dollars in Millions)
- The Marketers
- About 30 Notable Marketers of Natural Oral Care Products
- Most Players Are Natural HBC Specialists, Not Drug Companies
- Table of Marketers and Brands
- Table 5-4 Leading Marketers of Natural Oral Care Products, and Their Representative Brands
- Marketing and Product Trends
- Whiteners Uber Alles
- Therapeutics
- New Breath Fresheners Are Convenient, Portable
- Table 5-5 Selected Introductions of Natural Oral Care Products, 2004-2005
- Consumer Advertising Expenditures and Positioning
- Natural Oral Care Ad Spending Is Unmonitored
- Toms Tackles T.V.
- Mainstream Players Invade Natural Media Turf
- Woodstock Says Print Out a $1 Coupon
Chapter 6 The Natural Color Cosmetics Category
- Key Points
- The Products
- Four Segments Identified: Face, Eye, Lip, Nail
- Facial Makeup
- Eye Makeup
- Lip Color
- Nail Polish
- Category Size and Growth
- Natural Color Cosmetics Climb to $336 Million in 2004
- Table 6-1 U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Color Cosmetics, 2000-2004
- Mass Accounts for Over 40% of Natural Color Cosmetics Sales
- Table 6-2 Share of U.S. Mass-Channel (Supermarket, Chain Drugstore, Mass Merchandiser) Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Color Cosmetics, by Segment, 2004
- What If We Subtract Neutrogena Sales?
- Factors in Future Growth
- Wellness, Cosmetic Sophistication, and the Fight for Shelf Space
- Does It Work? What About Selection?
- Teens/Tweens Using Cosmetics Earlier in Life
- Projected Natural Color Cosmetics Sales
- Cosmetics to Approach $500 Million by 2010
- Table 6-3 Projected U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Color Cosmetics, 2004-2010
- The Marketers
- Only About 40 Significant Natural Color Cosmetics Marketers
- Virtually All Players Are Privately-Held Specialists
- Table of Marketers and Brands
- Table 6-4 Leading Marketers of Natural Color Cosmetics, and Their Representative Brands
- Marketing and Product Trends
- Natural Makeup Marketers Still Building Assortment...
- Table 6-5 Selected Introductions of Natural Color Cosmetics, 2004-2005
- Consumer Advertising Expenditures
- Consumer Advertising Expenditures
- Natural Makeup Marketers Spent $9.4 Million in 2004
- ...But Without J&J Brands, It Was Just $1.8 Million
- Some Natural Makeup Ad Dollars Go Unmeasured
Chapter 7 The Competitive Situation
- Key Points
- Marketer Shares
- Special Note on Share Data
- J&J, Body Shop, Estee Still Lead the Pack
- Strongest Natural Specialist in 2005
- Table 7-1 Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Personal Care Products Through All Outlets, by Marketer, 2004
- J&J, Toms, Woodridge Lead in Mass
- Two Ethnic-Preferred Brands 4th and 5th in Mass
- Table 7-2 Share of U.S. Retail Dollar Sales of Natural Personal Care Products Through Mass Channels (Supermarkets, Chain Drugstores, Mass Merchandisers), by Marketer, 2004
- Competitive Profile: The Estee Lauder Cos., Inc./Aveda Corp.
- Net Sales Reach $5.8 Billion in Fiscal 2004
- Near-Double-Digit Growth in Fiscal 2005s First Half
- Aveda: Upscale and Natural - A Timely Combo
- For Aveda, Estee Lauder Is Its Own Retailer
- Competitive Profile: The Hain Celestial Group, Inc.
- Net Sales of $544 Million in Fiscal 2004
- Hain the Acquirer Adds Jason and Zia to Roster of Companies Hain, Master of Leverage in Both Natural and Mass Retail Famous Hain Brands
- Competitive Profile: Harvest Partners, Inc./Levlad, Inc.
- Levlads Sales Estimated at $200 Million
- What Acquisition by Harvest Means
- Levlads Tactics: Up-to-Date Products, Pricing, Infrastructure
- Competitive Profile: Johnson & Johnson/Neutrogena Corp.
- Special Note: Why We Cover J&J in This Report
- Sales of Over $47 Billion in 2004
- Neutrogena - It Aint Natural
- Other J&J Brands
- Competitive Profile: Para Laboratories, Inc./Queen Helene
- Retail Sales of Para Brands Estimated at $29 Million
- A Limited, But Effective Product Mix
- Para the Master of Dual-Channel - and Dual-Audience - Marketing
- Competitive Profile: Toms of Maine, Inc.
- Sales Estimated at $45 Million
- A Shrewd Marketer That Is Increasingly Imitated
- T.V., and Lots of Charity
- Three Marketers to Watch
- Kiss My Face Corporation
- Namaste Laboratories
- ShiKai Products
Chapter 8 Distribution and Retail
- Key Points
- Distribution
- Most Natural Personal Care Marketers Use Distributors
- At Least 25,000 Stores in Natural Foods/HBC Channel
- Retail
- Natural HBC = Fat Margins
- Time to Leverage Opportunities in Mass
- Natural Retailers Want Private Label
- Retail Focus: Whole Foods Market, Inc.
- Sales Mushroom to $3.9 Billion in 2004
- Whole This, Not-So-Whole That...
- Retail Focus: Wild Oats Markets, Inc
- Wild Oats Breaks $1 Billion Mark in 2004
- Natural HBC Featured in Department Called Holistic Health Center
Chapter 9 The Natural Personal Care Consumer
- Key Points
- Special Note About Simmons Data
- The Consumer: The Natural/Organic Shopper
- Most Households Buy Something Natural, Half Buy Organic
- But NMI Reckons Fewer Adults Are Buying Organic
- LOHAS Consumers Spend $227 Billion Or More
- The Consumer: Psychographics
- Age, Leisure Time, and Levels of Affluence
- Table 9-1 Demographic Characteristics Favoring Agreement With Certain Statements, 2004 (Adults, in Recent 12-Month Period)
- The Consumer: Brand Use
- Numbers of Users in 27 Brand Data Sets
- Table 9-2 Numbers of Users of Selected Natural Personal Care Products, by Brand, 2004 (Thousands of Adults, In Recent 12 Months-Except as Noted)
- The Consumer: Skincare Brand Use
- Interesting Splits Between Affluence and Non-Affluence
- Table 9-3 Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Aveeno Baby Wash, 2004 (Households, in Recent 12-Month Period)
- Table 9-4 Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Natural Body Wash, by Brand, 2004 (Households, in Recent 12-Month Period)
- Table 9-5 Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Natural Facial Cleansers and Medicated Skincare Products, by Brand, 2004 (Adults, in Recent 12-Month Period)
- Table 9-6 Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Natural Moisturizers, by Brand, 2004 (Adults, in Recent 12-Month Period)
- Table 9-7 Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Natural Soap, by Brand, 2004 (Households, in Recent 12-Month Period)
- Table 9-8 Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Neutrogena Suncare Products, 2004 (Adults, in Recent 12-Month Period)
- The Consumer: Haircare Brand Use
- Again, Split Levels of Affluence
- Some Older Age Skews
- Table 9-9 Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Natural Hair Conditioner, by Brand, 2004 (Adults, in Recent 12-Month Period)
- Table 9-10 Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Natural Shampoo, by Brand, 2004 (Adults, in Last 7 Days)
- Table 9-11 Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Aveda Hairstyling Products, 2004 (Adults, in Recent 12-Month Period)
- The Consumer: Oral Care Brand Use
- Toms of Maine Toothpaste: Skews to Higher Income, Education
- Table 9-12 Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Toms of Maine Natural Toothpaste, 2004 (Adults, In Recent 12 Months)
- The Consumer: Color Cosmetics Brand Use
- Neutrogena Use Split According to Income, Age
- Whites, Hispanics Stand Out in Neutrogena Use
- Table 9-13 Demographic Characteristics Favoring Use of Neutrogena Color Cosmetics, 2004 (Adults, In Recent 12 Months)
- Focus on the Teen Consumer of Pop-Prestige Brands
- Teens and Bath & Body Works: Body Wash and Moisturizer
- Table 9-14 Demographic Characteristics Favoring Teen Use of Bath & Body Works Body Wash and Moisturizer Products, 2004 (Teens Aged 12-17, In Recent 12 Months)
- Teens and The Body Shop: Body Wash and Moisturizer
- Table 9-15 Demographic Characteristics Favoring Teen Use of The Body Shop Body Wash and Moisturizer Products, 2004 (Teens Aged 12-17, In Recent 12 Months)
- Profile of Aveda Use by Teens Is Sketchy
Chapter 10 Trends and Opportunities
- Advice One: Same Trends, Only More So... (Cross Over!)
- Advice Two: Admit It -- We Need Natural HBC That Works!
- Advice Three: ...And We Still Need Better Ads and Packaging
- Advice Four: Beware Mainstreamers Invasion of Natural Media and Retail Outlets
- Advice Five: Self-Regulate
- Advice Six: Keep Targeting Youth, Male, Baby, Ethnic Markets
- Advice Seven: Natural Channel Has Potential for Natural/Prestige Format
Appendix: Addresses of Selected Companies |
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