Abstract
The Senegalese telecom market generated $1.19bn in service revenue in 2008,
which we estimate will grow to $1.23bn in 2009. Growth has been slow in the
past few years, due to the limited competition in both the fixed and mobile
markets. But we see competition intensifying and thus expect revenue to grow
at a healthy CAGR of 6.9% over the next five years, for a total of $1.72bn in
2014.
With mobile penetration at 46.4% of the population at year-end 2008, there is
still room for organic growth. The entry of two new operators further
emphasizes this, and the potential for new subscribers could boost revenue
beyond the level currently projected. Fixed and mobile data (including mobile
broadband) are expected to be the fastest growing segments in the market.
Fixed Internet services will grow at a CAGR of 30% over the next five years,
followed by mobile data services at 23.9%. Mobile voice revenue will also
expand over the period, but at much slower rate of 1.9%.
As a result of a second operator, Sudatel, commencing fixed voice service, we
expect revenue in this segment to increase at a CAGR of 5.7% during the period.
Both mobile and fixed voice services will continue to generate the bulk of
revenue in the forecast period. However, the expected introduction of 3G
service could boost data revenue even further than suggested.
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