Abstract
The Ukrainian telecom market generated $7.0bn in service revenue in 2008. In
2009, we expect it to slide to $5.1bn mainly due to the fact that the
Ukrainian hryvnia lost more than 40% of its value against the US dollar in
2008-2009. We expect that in terms of local currency, Ukraine' s telecom market
will show a slight growth mainly boosted by fixed and mobile broadband
developments. We estimate that the market will fully recover, in terms of US
dollars, in 2014 when it will be worth $7.4bn. Mobile voice is currently the
largest revenue segment and is expected to remain so through 2014. At the same
time, mobile data' s share of total revenue will grow from 8.3% in 2008 to
15.1% in 2014 - from $0.6bn to $1.1bn. Another emerging sector is fixed
broadband - its share will grow from 4.8% in 2008 ($0.3bn) to 13.2% ($1.0bn)
in 2014. Fixed VoIP and IPTV will grow at astonishing rates, but their impact
on total service revenue will be minimal due to their infrastructural
constraints and the small scale of rollout.
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